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Nearly 1.8 million people are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse), between July and September 2025 (lean season). Of this total, around 179,000 people are experiencing IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) conditions, while the remaining population is classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). The worst-affected areas are four arid counties—Baringo, Mandera, Marsabit, and Turkana.
The current situation has improved compared to the period between February and March 2025 when 2.2 million people faced high levels of acute food insecurity. The improvement is attributed to above-average rainfall, which positively impacted crop and livestock production, and water availability and access, leading to slightly improved household food security in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs).
During the projection period (October 2025 to January 2026), the food security situation is expected to deteriorate, particularly during the short rains season (October–December 2025). An estimated 2.1 million people are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). The deterioration is mainly driven by forecasted below-average rainfall, which is expected to further affect staple food prices, alongside conflicts over resource management. Compared to the same period last year, the population projected in Phase 3 or above has increased from 11 to 13 percent with around 2 million people expected to be in Phase 3, and approximately 160,000 people in Phase 4.

An estimated 1.42 million people in Uganda are expected to face high levels of food insecurity between August 2025 and February 2026. This is an improvement compared to the current analysis period (April to July 2025) when approximately 2.46 million people were classified in IPC Phase 3 or above.
The improvement is largely due to the expected strong harvest season. However, food insecurity remains persistent in Karenga, Napak, Kaabong, Moroto, and Kotido, where between 30 and 45 percent of the population are still classified in IPC Phase 3 or above. It remains essential to implement activities aimed at reducing the food consumption deficits of food insecure populations as well as strengthening their resilience capacities.

Approximately 428,000 children aged 6–59 months and 84,000 pregnant or breastfeeding women are suffering or expected to suffer from acute malnutrition across 43 districts in Uganda between March 2025 to February 2026 and require urgent nutrition support or treatment. The highest is reported in Karamoja with three districts classified in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical) and four districts classified in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious).
Key factors fuelling acute malnutrition include high climate vulnerability—driven by arid to semi-arid conditions and prolonged dry spells that restrict access to reliable and sufficient water—intersects with poor agro-ecological potential, including marginal pastoral and agricultural zones characterized by rocky, infertile soils. Livelihoods are predominantly pastoralist, supplemented by limited single-season crop farming, but remain constrained by low dietary diversity and recurring seasonal food insecurity.

Acute malnutrition remains a major concern in Kenya, especially across the arid and semi-arid regions. Acute malnutrition (AMN) remained stable in the 27 analysed areas in Kenya's arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) between April and July 2025. However, elevated levels have been detected in 15 areas, with 11 areas classified in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical), four areas classified in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious), seven areas classified in IPC AMN Phase 2 (Alert) and five areas in IPC AMN Phase 1 (Acceptable). In the projection period (August to October 2025), acute malnutrition is expected to deteriorate in eight areas, improve in three areas and remain stable in 15 areas. The number of children aged 6 to 59 months requiring treatment between April 2025 and March 2026 is estimated to be 741,883, which is a slight improvement (2.5 percent reduction) compared to 2024. Food gaps, high disease burden, limited access to health services, limited water and access to sanitation services, and reduced humanitarian funding continue to drive acute malnutrition.

In August, wheat and rice export prices dropped to their lowest levels in years, largely due to abundant global supplies and weak demand. Meanwhile, maize and soybean prices found support from higher export premiums and robust international buying interest. Vegetable oil prices remained strong, because of increased palm oil quotes driven by steady global import needs. Nitrogen fertilizer prices climbed, especially with strong demand from India during what is usually a quiet season, while prices for phosphorus and potassium fertilizers stayed mostly steady. However, fertilizer is becoming less affordable compared to crop prices in many regions, which could lead farmers to adjust their application rates. Although the outlook for AMIS commodities remains generally positive, ongoing uncertainties in trade and biofuel policies continue to pose risks for market participants.

Dr. Sita KONE is a Senior Agricultural Economist and Consultant with over eight years of experience delivering high-impact research, impact evaluations, and policy analysis in agriculture and food security. She specializes in climate-smart agriculture, food security, agrifood systems transformation, and resilience across SSA and the MENA region. She has collaborated with IFPRI and diverse institutions, leading rigorous evaluations, economic analyses, and evidence synthesis. Her work translates complex data into strategic insights, informing policy, strengthening resilience, and guiding investments for sustainable, inclusive, and climate-resilient food systems. She is recognized for translating rigorous evidence into actionable recommendations and integrating climate resilience and gender into agricultural strategies.

As a consultant with the Food Security Portal, Sita Kone conducted research on the best practices to strengthen household resilience to climate shocks (with focus on Burkina Faso ), including soil and water conservation practices and adaptive crop management and agroforestry.

Elie Hyani is a Food Security and Livelihoods specialist with over nine years of experience in fragile and crisis-affected contexts. His work focuses on strengthening household resilience through evidence-based programming, market systems development, and climate-resilient agriculture. He combines strong analytical expertise in vulnerability and market assessments with hands-on experience in programme design and implementation. Elie has contributed to applied research and policy engagement, supporting the translation of evidence into scalable interventions. He works closely with governments, development partners, and private sector actors to design inclusive solutions that enhance food systems, livelihoods, and economic resilience across Africa.

As a consultant with the Food Security Portal, Hyani Elie conducted research on the anticipatory interventions to mitigate the adverse food security impacts of conflict in East and Central Africa.

Mercy Kalondu Peter is a statistician and research professional specializing in development research, food security analysis and humanitarian data systems. She has contributed to the International Food Policy Research Institute’s Food Security Portal, as well as the REACH Initiative and Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis, supporting data-driven approaches to assess market dynamics, household vulnerability, and resilience. Her work focuses on generating evidence to inform policy and humanitarian response. She applies analytical and research skills to generate and translate evidence into insights for decision-making across research, policy, and development contexts.

As a consultant with the Food Security Portal, Mercy Kalondu Peter conducted research on innovative methods to strengthen household resilience to price and trade shocks in East Africa.

Zerayehu Sime is an Associate Professor of Economics at Addis Ababa University, with expertise in development economics, macroeconomics, poverty and inequality, food security, industrial policy, and applied econometrics. His research examines economic development, innovation, labor productivity, governance, and household welfare in Ethiopia and Sub-Saharan Africa. He possesses advanced skills in Multi-Shock Index (MSI) construction using parametric and non-parametric methods, the analysis of household food security outcomes, and General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling with GAMS and System Dynamics modeling, employing quantitative methodologies to inform evidence-based policy and facilitate sustainable economic growth.

As a consultant with the Food Security Portal, Zerayehu Sime conducted research on compound vulnerability and food security in Somalia.