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Nineteen months into the conflict, the Gaza Strip is still confronted with a critical risk of Famine. Over 60 days have passed since all humanitarian aid and commercial supplies were blocked from entering the territory. Goods indispensable for people’s survival are either depleted or expected to run out in the coming weeks. The entire population is facing high levels of acute food insecurity, with half a million people (one in five) facing starvation.
From 11 May to the end of September 2025, the whole territory is classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), with the entire population expected to face Crisis or worse acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This includes 470,000 people (22 percent of the population) in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), over a million people (54 percent) in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), and the remaining half million (24 percent) in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). This marks a significant deterioration compared to the previous IPC analysis (released in October 2024) and the already dire conditions detected between 1 April – 10 May 2025. During this time, 1.95 million people (93 percent) were classified in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above), including 244,000 people (12 percent) in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) and 925,000 (44 percent) in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).
Between 1 April and 10 May, acute malnutrition (AMN) was at Alert and Serious levels (IPC AMN Phase 2 and 3). However, experience has shown that acute malnutrition can worsen rapidly, and latest data indicate a deteriorating trend that is expected to persist. Consequently, acute malnutrition in North Gaza, Gaza, and Rafah governorates will likely reach Critical levels (IPC AMN Phase 4) between 11 May and the end of September.
Between mid-January and mid-March 2025, the ceasefire allowed a temporary alleviation of acute food insecurity and malnutrition conditions in parts of the Gaza Strip. However, the ongoing blockade imposed in early March reversed the situation. Since 18 March, the escalating conflict has displaced over 430,000 people, further disrupted access to humanitarian assistance, markets, health, water and sanitation services, and caused additional damage to remaining essential infrastructure. All 25 bakeries supported by the World Food Programme (WFP) closed at the beginning of April due to lack of supplies, and food stocks for most of the 177 hot meal kitchens are reportedly exhausted. All preventive nutrition supplies have run out in UNICEF and WFP warehouses. Food prices are soaring daily, with wheat flour ranging from USD $235 per 25 kg in Deir al-Balah to USD $520 in Gaza and Khan Younis—a 3,000 percent increase since February 2025.
Latest data show many households resorting to extreme coping strategies. A third reported collecting garbage to sell for food, while a quarter indicated that no valuable garbage remains. Observations reveal that social order is breaking down.
The plan announced on 5 May by Israeli authorities for delivering food and non-food items across the governorates is estimated to be highly insufficient to meet the population’s essential needs for food, water, shelter, and medicine. Moreover, the proposed distribution mechanisms are likely to create significant access barriers for large segments of the population.
In light of the announced large-scale military operation across the Gaza Strip and the persistent inability of humanitarian agencies to deliver essential goods and services, there is a high risk that Famine (IPC Phase 5) will occur in the projection period (11 May – 30 September). The latest announcements suggest that this worst-case scenario is becoming more likely.
Immediate action is essential to prevent further deaths, starvation and acute malnutrition, and a descent into Famine. This entails ending hostilities, ensuring unrestricted humanitarian access, restoring essential services and commercial flows, and providing sufficient lifesaving assistance to all in need.
Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons
Gaza Strip: IPC Global Initiative - Special Brief
The IPC acute food insecurity analysis conducted in December 2023 warned of a risk that Famine may occur by the end of May 2024 if an immediate cessation of hostilities and sustained access for the provision of essential supplies and services to the population did not take place. Since then, the conditions necessary to prevent famine have not been met and the latest evidence confirms that Famine is imminent in the northern governorates and projected to occur anytime between mid-March and May 2024.
According to the most likely scenario, both North Gaza and Gaza Governorates are classified in IPC Phase 5 (Famine) with reasonable evidence, with 70% (around 210,000 people) of the population in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe). Continued conflict and the near-complete lack of access to the northern governorates for humanitarian organizations and commercial trucks will likely compound heightened vulnerabilities and extremely limited food availability, access and utilization, as well as access to healthcare, water, and sanitation. The famine threshold for household acute food insecurity has already been far exceeded and, given the latest data showing a steeply increasing trend in cases of acute malnutrition, it is highly likely that the famine threshold for acute malnutrition has also been exceeded. The upward trend in non-trauma mortality is also expected to accelerate, resulting in all famine thresholds likely to be passed imminently.
The southern governorates of Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis, and the Governorate of Rafah, are classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). However, in a worst-case scenario, these governorates face a risk of Famine through July 2024.
The entire population in the Gaza Strip (2.23 million) is facing high levels of acute food insecurity. Between mid-March and mid-July, in the most likely scenario and under the assumption of an escalation of the conflict including a ground offensive in Rafah, half of the population of the Gaza Strip (1.11 million people) is expected to face catastrophic conditions (IPC Phase 5), the most severe level in the IPC Acute Food Insecurity scale. This is an increase of 530,000 people (92 percent) compared to the previous analysis.
Damaged Agricultural Lands in the Gaza Strip
Israel’s continuing attacks against Hamas are causing massive collateral damage to agricultural livelihoods and food supplies in the Gaza Strip. More than one third of agricultural lands in Gaza have been damaged since the outbreak of the war on October 7, 2023, according to analysis based on satellite imagery by the United Nations Satellite Centre (UNOSAT) and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
Gaza Damage Assessment Application
The Gaza Damage Assessment Application is an interactive geospatial tool to provide a detailed visualization of damage in the Gaza Strip. By integrating high-resolution satellite imagery analysis with GIS mapping, this tool enables users to explore destruction patterns and affected infrastructure.
The application presents three core thematic maps, each offering unique insights into the extent of damage:
1. Grouped Damage Map
2. Main Damage Sites Map
3. Damage Status Map