Ukraine Crisis Monitoring: Analysis of Food Crisis Risks and Policy Responsiveness

The Food Security Portal gratefully acknowledges the European Commission (EC) and the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) of the Government of the United Kingdom for their financial support of the Ukraine crisis monitoring.

 

The crisis in Ukraine threatens global food security at a time when global food markets are already struggling with soaring prices, supply-chain disruptions, and a bumpy recovery from the pandemic. Ukraine and the Russian Federation account for more than 30% of global wheat exports, provide around 12 percent of the globally traded supply of food energy in kilo calories, and are breadbaskets to many food import-dependent developing countries in the Middle East, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. Moreover, Russia is a major producer of fertilizer. Any serious disruption of production and exports from these suppliers will drive up prices further and erode food security for millions of people. If governments respond with export restrictions in an effort to keep domestic food prices in check, the impact on food security will be even higher.

In this context, monitoring the impact of the crisis on food security is key. To that end, this page provides several tools to monitor the situation. Here you can monitor production and stocks, track food export restrictions, check food price volatility, and access resources such as the AMIS Market Monitor.

 

The AMIS Market Monitor May 2022

 

Spring planting in the Northern Hemisphere is underway amid high commodity prices but high input costs as well. Early indications for the United States and the European Union suggest that higher prices for soybeans and other oilseeds will encourage producers to increase oilseed plantings. For wheat, increased acreage in Canada might help fill some of the global deficit in supplies. However, the outlook is less favourable for India and the United States. Due to the tightness in global stocks and the uncertainty caused by the conflict in Ukraine, price volatility is likely to remain high this year as markets will focus on weather, crop conditions of fall-planted wheat and progress for spring planting and development later this summer. Of increasing concern are export restrictions, which further exacerbate price volatility and jeopardize global supplies.

Vulnerability analysis on wheat and fertilizer trade dependence

The vulnerability analysis tool includes short-term assessments of (expected) global impacts through trade and production bottlenecks in wheat and fertilizer markets caused by the crisis and trade and policy responses and identification of “hot spots” of countries with the highest exposure and country-specific vulnerability assessment of 5 countries (Egypt, Sudan, Yemen, West Africa and Latin America).

Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker

Food export restrictions are once again a concern as food prices rise even higher. This behavior can have dire unintended consequences for vulnerable people in food-importing countries, increasing prices and exacerbating issues of food insecurity already inflamed by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Fertilizer Dashboard

The war in Ukraine is sending fertilizer prices soaring, intensifying fears of reduced global food production and higher food prices. Prices for all main fertilizers have spiked in view of sanctions against and export restrictions by Russia, the world's largest fertilizer producer. Prices for natural gas, a key input for fertilizer production, are up as well, resulting in higher costs for fertilizer producers and reduced output - further affecting global supplies.

Production and Stocks Monitoring System

The stock-to-use ratio is an important indicator of the vulnerability of world food markets to shocks. The ratio represents the level of carryover stock of a given commodity as a percentage of the total use of that commodity.

Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System

The Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System is a tool of the Food Security Portal that identifies periods of excessive price variability (i.e. price variability that exceeds a pre-established threshold), and it is updated on a daily basis to identify days that are within periods of high, moderate, and low price variability.