Food Policy Analysis Tools

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to expose global food security to high uncertainty, exacerbating already soaring food prices stemming from COVID-19-induced supply disruptions and drought-reduced yields. As seen in past global food price crises, some countries have begun restricting food trade with the objective of controlling domestic food inflation. These restrictions can have dire unintended consequences for vulnerable people in food-importing countries, increasing prices and exacerbating food insecurity.

The vulnerability analysis tool includes short-term assessments of (expected) global impacts through trade and production bottlenecks in wheat and fertilizer markets caused by the crisis and trade and policy responses and identification of “hot spots” of countries with the highest exposure and country-specific vulnerability assessment of 5 countries (Egypt, Sudan, Yemen, West Africa and Latin America).

The war in Ukraine is sending fertilizer prices soaring, intensifying fears of reduced global food production and higher food prices. Prices for all main fertilizers have spiked in view of sanctions against and export restrictions by Russia, the world's largest fertilizer producer. Prices for natural gas, a key input for fertilizer production, are up as well, resulting in higher costs for fertilizer producers and reduced output - further affecting global supplies.

The stock-to-use ratio is an important indicator of the vulnerability of world food markets to shocks. The ratio represents the level of carryover stock of a given commodity as a percentage of the total use of that commodity.

The Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System is a tool of the Food Security Portal that identifies periods of excessive price variability (i.e. price variability that exceeds a pre-established threshold), and it is updated on a daily basis to identify days that are within periods of high, moderate, and low price variability.

The Food Price Monitor provides daily updates of prices in wholesale and retail markets for a wide range of food products. Alerts refer to price changes from the start of social distancing measures taken because of COVID-19 and are based on a pre-COVID-19 reference price.

The effects of climate change are already being felt, and they are projected to worsen in the course of the 21st century, with impacts varying by region. Adaptation is critical to continue pursuing sustainable development goals (SDGs), including on fighting poverty (SDG1), hunger (SDG2), and managing water resources (SDG6).

As the world deals with the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, the international community has started discussing more urgently how land use change and the conversion of natural habitats to agricultural or urban ecosystems can affect the risk and emergence of zoonotic diseases in humans as well as the spread of new pathogens and diseases in livestock.

The Early Warning Hub brings together information from across Early Warning Systems in one place. Early Warning Systems (EWS) alert to the presence of food crises and related drivers, informing decision makers and saving lives.

The Food Security Portal's Price Shocks Tool provides an interactive way to explore the impact of price changes on poverty. When you set hypothetical price shock(s) using the tool, net impacts of selected price changes are generated per household and the impact on poverty is automatically calculated accordingly.

As the COVID-19 pandemic spreads, social and economic relief measures—including fiscal stimulus and expansion of social safety nets—are crucial to prevent poverty and hunger from rising dramatically in developing countries.

The control panel for real-time monitoring of risk factors is an innovative tool that brings together information on various drivers of food crises, including conflict and climate-related shocks.

While the impact of rising food prices may be clear, the root causes of such price increases often are not. The role of various short- and long-term factors, such as the growth of commodities futures markets and changing levels of grain stocks, continues to be debated. This tool generates up-to-date media daily analysis of factors that may influence commodity price volatility and food security related to COVID-19.

The spread of COVID-19, as well as the wide range of policy responses enacted around the world to contain the pandemic, have exerted wide-ranging effects on agri-food systems and livelihoods.

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and aTrade (IMPACT) explores policies that can help feed the world, reduce poverty, and protect the natural resource base. Here we examine how alternative investment scenarios affect agricultural production, productivity, and food security for the period 2010-2050 compared to a reference scenario.

The fight against hunger is not over yet. A fight against overweight and obesity must begin. Here you can find how patterns of malnutrition are evolving across the globe.

The IFPRI Food Security Media Analysis System was developed in collaboration with GATE group from the University of Sheffield to analyze media coverage of food security, food prices, and hunger. This powerful software combination uses sophisticated linguistic and semantic object network-mapping algorithms to analyze the relationships between key terms found in media articles that may influence commodity price volatility.

Agricultural production is both strongly affected by and a major contributor to climate change, accounting for a quarter of total global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Agriculture receives around US$600 billion per year worldwide in government support. However, no rigorous quantification of the impact of this support on GHG emissions has been available until now.