- 02Latest developments - April 2023
- 03Food Price Monitor
- 04Price Alerts
The Food Price Monitor dashboard is a tool that allows you to keep track of changes in food prices both internationally and domestically. The tool is divided into three sections: international food prices, domestic food prices, and food price determinants.
The international food prices section provides you with information on the prices of different types of food that are traded internationally. This includes things like agricultural commodities, such as wheat, maize, and soybeans. You can view the actual US dollar price per unit, as well as indexed values that are calculated based on January 2012 = 100. The section also includes composite food price indices that measure monthly changes in international food prices. You can use the tool to monitor trends and volatility in international food prices and spot market prices.
The domestic food prices section shows you how food prices are changing in different countries. The tool provides data on food inflation rates, which refer to the increase in the prices of food items over a given period of time. You can also use the daily price monitor to see how much food costs in wholesale and retail markets for a variety of food products in major markets in India, Guatemala, Rwanda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda.
The food price determinants section provides you with information on the factors that influence food prices. This includes things like the cost of oil and energy, currency values, and the cost of making fertilizer. You can use the tool to monitor the latest developments in fertilizer markets, including a summary of market developments and tools for tracking fertilizer trade, utilization, and production. The section also provides data on the Nominal Rate of Protection (NRP), which measures the extent to which a set of agricultural policies affects the market price of a commodity.
All of the information in the tool comes from reliable sources, including the FAO, IMF, Bloomberg, and others. You can find out where the information came from at the bottom of the dashboard.
Latest developments - April 2023
Price volatility in hard wheat was low in April. Wheat availability is perceived to be ample as growing conditions appear to be mostly favorable and Russian supply continues to pad international markets. These factors outweighed concerns over the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the ban during April imposed by several Eastern European countries on Ukrainian imports. As with hard wheat, soft wheat price volatility was low in April due to a favorable supply outlook characterized by mostly favorable growing conditions, which outweighed concerns over the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Maize price volatility was low in April due in part to solid planting progress and improved weather in the U.S., as well as expectations of a strong upcoming harvest in Brazil. As with wheat, expected ample availabilities outweighed concerns about the uncertain future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Rice price volatility was at high levels overall in April and remains the outlier among major grains. The volatility in rice prices comes as the supply outlook appears increasingly tight, and demand remains strong – particularly from Indonesia. Earlier flooding in Pakistan has reduced availabilities, and production challenges in South and Southeast Asia may emerge soon depending on the timing and strength of the likely upcoming El Niño. Soybean price volatility was low overall in April due to a strong supply situation. Production levels in Brazil are likely to break records, weather has improved in the United States, and crude oil prices are down – which has put downward pressure on soybean oil prices. Cocoa price volatility was high April with lower supplies from Côte d'Ivoire and lower exports from Nigeria. Price volatility was high despite growing inventorie s in port warehouses. Coffee price volatility remained high in April. Despite a likely decline in demand with the prospect of a slowing global economy, supplies remain tight with coffee inventories falling. Cotton price volatility was high in April despite the USDA’s projection of higher ending stocks. Uncertainty around future demand in the face of recession fears may be contributing to the volatility, along with lower expected outturn in India. Sugar price volatility was at high levels in April due to several factors affecting sugar production in major producing countries.
(* Next update will be on June 5, 2023).
Price volatility in soft wheat was low in March as the mid-month extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative contributed to calm markets, though the announcement by Russia of further conditions for the agreement have since caused uncertainty about the initiative’s future. While the supply outlook is mostly favorable, there were some concerns over poor conditions of incoming cropsthe US winter wheat crop and continued dryness in North Africa. in the United States. As with soft wheat, hard wheat price volatility was low in March as the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative eased supply concerns. However, the future of the agreement is still in doubt as Russia announced further conditions for its extension beyond 60 days. Maize price volatility was low in March due in part to the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Low export demand due to concerns over the global economic outlook outweighed poor conditions in Argentina and uncertainly over the future of the Black Sea agreement. Rice price volatility was at moderate levels overall in March despite generally favorable growing conditions and no major shifts in demand. Volatility may be the result of the influx of new product in global markets followed by an upturn in buying interest from Indonesia. egardless, this month’s volatility reading should not signal concern. Soybean price volatility was low overall in March with record harvests in Brazil and low demand for US exports. Cocoa price volatility was moderate overall in March with some concerns over lower supplies from Côte d'Ivoire. Coffee price volatility remained high in March with ongoing global supply concerns. There were downgrades in Arabica production estimates for both Brazil and Columbia. Cotton price volatility was high in March even as production prospects remain strong and demand is forecast to fall. As in the previous month, volatility may have been driven by uncertainty around how much demand will fall amid recession fears. Sugar price volatility was at high levels in March due to the prospects of tight global supplies and strong demand. The announced cut in OPEC+ output sent demand for ethanol soaring.
Price volatility in soft wheat was low overall in January with updated higher production estimates in several wheat producing countries likely outweighing concerns over the continuing war in Urkaine and uncertainty over the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. As with soft wheat, hard wheat price volatility was low overall in February with higher production estimates in several wheat producing countries. This was likely enough to offset concerns over production prospects in Ukraine, and current shipments already running about a third behind the previous season according to Bloomberg.
Maize price volatility was low overall in February. As with wheat, low volatility suggests sufficient global maize supplies even as dry weather has impacted production in Argentina and the future of the Black Sea export corridor is uncertain. There was slack demand from exporters in the U.S.
Rice price volatility was low overall in February. Prices varied little as buyers generally waited for the new crop to arrive on the market. The USDA outlook is for larger supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks.
Soybean price volatility was moderate overall in February as stocks of last year’s crop tightened in the U.S. and production concerns persist in Argentina over dry weather. However, the solid outturn in Brazil likely dampened volatility compared to what it would have been.
Cocoa price volatility was moderate overall in February over supply tightness in top producer Côte d'Ivoire.
Coffee price volatility remained high in February following a poor crop in Colombia last year and ongoing concerns about production in the world’s top exporter Brazil.
Cotton price volatility was high in February despite strong inventories and decent production prospects. Volatility was possibly driven by uncertainty around how much demand will fall amid recession fears.
Sugar price volatility was at high levels in February on the prospects of reduced global output.