Tool

Food Price Monitor

Outline

The Food Price Monitor dashboard is a tool that allows you to keep track of changes in food prices both internationally and domestically. The tool is divided into three sections: international food prices, domestic food prices, and food price determinants.

The international food prices section provides you with information on the prices of different types of food that are traded internationally. This includes things like agricultural commodities, such as wheat, maize, and soybeans. You can view the actual US dollar price per unit, as well as indexed values that are calculated based on January 2012 = 100. The section also includes composite food price indices that measure monthly changes in international food prices. You can use the tool to monitor trends and volatility in international food prices and spot market prices.

The domestic food prices section shows you how food prices are changing in different countries. The tool provides data on food inflation rates, which refer to the increase in the prices of food items over a given period of time. You can also use the daily price monitor to see how much food costs in wholesale and retail markets for a variety of food products in major markets in India, Guatemala, Rwanda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda.

The food price determinants section provides you with information on the factors that influence food prices. This includes things like the cost of oil and energy, currency values, and the cost of making fertilizer. You can use the tool to monitor the latest developments in fertilizer markets, including a summary of market developments and tools for tracking fertilizer trade, utilization, and production. The section also provides data on the Nominal Rate of Protection (NRP), which measures the extent to which a set of agricultural policies affects the market price of a commodity.

All of the information in the tool comes from reliable sources, including the FAO, IMF, Bloomberg, and others. You can find out where the information came from at the bottom of the dashboard. 

Latest developments - April 2023

Price volatility in hard wheat was low in April. Wheat availability is perceived to be ample as growing conditions appear to be mostly favorable and Russian supply continues to pad international markets. These factors outweighed concerns over the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the ban during April imposed by several Eastern European countries on Ukrainian imports. As with hard wheat, soft wheat price volatility was low in April due to a favorable supply outlook characterized by mostly favorable growing conditions, which outweighed concerns over the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Maize price volatility was low in April due in part to solid planting progress and improved weather in the U.S., as well as expectations of a strong upcoming harvest in Brazil. As with wheat, expected ample availabilities outweighed concerns about the uncertain future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Rice price volatility was at high levels overall in April and remains the outlier among major grains. The volatility in rice prices comes as the supply outlook appears increasingly tight, and demand remains strong – particularly from Indonesia. Earlier flooding in Pakistan has reduced availabilities, and production challenges in South and Southeast Asia may emerge soon depending on the timing and strength of the likely upcoming El Niño. Soybean price volatility was low overall in April due to a strong supply situation. Production levels in Brazil are likely to break records, weather has improved in the United States, and crude oil prices are down – which has put downward pressure on soybean oil prices. Cocoa price volatility was high April with lower supplies from Côte d'Ivoire and lower exports from Nigeria. Price volatility was high despite growing inventorie s in port warehouses. Coffee price volatility remained high in April. Despite a likely decline in demand with the prospect of a slowing global economy, supplies remain tight with coffee inventories falling. Cotton price volatility was high in April despite the USDA’s projection of higher ending stocks. Uncertainty around future demand in the face of recession fears may be contributing to the volatility, along with lower expected outturn in India. Sugar price volatility was at high levels in April due to several factors affecting sugar production in major producing countries.

(* Next update will be on June 5, 2023).

March 2023

Price volatility in soft wheat was low in March as the mid-month extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative contributed to calm markets, though the announcement by Russia of further conditions for the agreement have since caused uncertainty about the initiative’s future. While the supply outlook is mostly favorable, there were some concerns over poor conditions of incoming cropsthe US winter wheat crop and continued dryness in North Africa. in the United States. As with soft wheat, hard wheat price volatility was low in March as the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative eased supply concerns. However, the future of the agreement is still in doubt as Russia announced further conditions for its extension beyond 60 days. Maize price volatility was low in March due in part to the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.  Low export demand due to concerns over the global economic outlook outweighed poor conditions in Argentina and uncertainly over the future of the Black Sea agreement. Rice price volatility was at moderate levels overall in March despite generally favorable growing conditions and no major shifts in demand. Volatility may be the result of the influx of new product in global markets followed by an upturn in buying interest from Indonesia. egardless, this month’s volatility reading should not signal concern. Soybean price volatility was low overall in March with record harvests in Brazil and low demand for US exports.  Cocoa price volatility was moderate overall in March with some concerns over lower supplies from Côte d'Ivoire. Coffee price volatility remained high in March with ongoing global supply concerns. There were downgrades in Arabica production estimates for both Brazil and Columbia. Cotton price volatility was high in March even as production prospects remain strong and demand is forecast to fall. As in the previous month, volatility may have been driven by uncertainty around how much demand will fall amid recession fears. Sugar price volatility was at high levels in March due to the prospects of tight global supplies and strong demand. The announced cut in OPEC+ output sent demand for ethanol soaring. 
 

Feb 2023

Price volatility in soft wheat was low overall in January with updated higher production estimates in several wheat producing countries likely outweighing concerns over the continuing war in Urkaine and uncertainty over the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. As with soft wheat, hard wheat price volatility was low overall in February with higher production estimates in several wheat producing countries. This was likely enough to offset concerns over production prospects in Ukraine, and current shipments already running about a third behind the previous season according to Bloomberg. 

Maize price volatility was low overall in February. As with wheat, low volatility suggests sufficient global maize supplies even as dry weather has impacted production in Argentina and the future of the Black Sea export corridor is uncertain. There was slack demand from exporters in the U.S.

Rice price volatility was low overall in February. Prices varied little as buyers generally waited for the new crop to arrive on the market. The USDA outlook is for larger supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks.

Soybean price volatility was moderate overall in February as stocks of last year’s crop tightened in the U.S. and production concerns persist in Argentina over dry weather. However, the solid outturn in Brazil likely dampened volatility compared to what it would have been.

Cocoa price volatility was moderate overall in February over supply tightness in top producer Côte d'Ivoire.

Coffee price volatility remained high in February following a poor crop in Colombia last year and ongoing concerns about production in the world’s top exporter Brazil.

Cotton price volatility was high in February despite strong inventories and decent production prospects. Volatility was possibly driven by uncertainty around how much demand will fall amid recession fears.

Sugar price volatility was at high levels in February on the prospects of reduced global output.

 

Food Price Monitor

NOTES ON TAB 1: INTERNATIONAL PRICES

  • Commodity prices: Commodity prices refer to prices of internationally traded agricultural commodities in futures and spot markets. Futures market prices are those of futures contracts closest to maturity. Spot market prices are for a selected major variety and spot market (e.g. “USDA No. 1 Hard Winter Wheat” in Kansas City, MO spot market”), as indicated in the table above the graph. Price trends can be viewed for both the actual US dollar price per unit (typically per tonne or bushed) and indexed values. Indexed values are calculated based on January 2012 = 100. Data sources: CME | Bloomberg | FAO GIEWS.
  • Composite Food Price Index: Two composite food price indices are shown. The FAO Food Price Index is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of internationally traded food commodities (2014-2016 = 100). The International Grains Council (IGC) Grains and Oilseeds Index is based on daily composite prices for major grain and oilseed commodities (Jan 2000=100). Data sources: FAO | IGC.
  • Price Volatility: Two measures of volatility are shown: the Food Security Portal’s own excessive food price variability index and the coefficient of variation, which is a more conventional measure. The FSP excessive price variability index is in “red alert” when commodity price returns (i.e., day-to-day percentage changes of commodity prices) in futures markets exceed the 95% quantile of past returns. Vertical red lines in the graph indicate where a daily return exceeds this threshold. When it exceeds the threshold, the commodity price is considered to be an “high” or “excessive” volatility. In the early warning alert further below, the volatility status is reported for each commodity. For a further description of this volatility measure go to the Excessive Food Price Variablity Early Warning System tool page. The coefficient of variation (CV) of volatility in daily spot market prices is shown in the second visualization. The CV is a statistical measure of the relative dispersion of data points in a data series around the mean. In the graph it is defined as the ratio of the standard deviation of the past 20 observations of the spot market price (i.e., one month) relative to the mean of that price during that period. Higher values indicate greater volatility.

NOTES ON TAB 2: DOMESTIC PRICES

  • Commodity prices: The domestic price dataset is from by FAO’s GIEWS. The daily price monitor is collected by the FSP project, predominantly taken from primary sources in countries or, in some cases, through secondary sources. Data sources: FAO’s GIEWS.
  • Food inflation: Food inflation refers to the increase in the prices of food items over a given period of time. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Trading Economics provide data on food inflation rates for different countries. The map shows the latest available data Data sources: IMF | Trading Economics.
  • Daily Price Monitor: The Food Price Monitor provides daily updates of prices in wholesale and retail markets for a wide range of food products. Current coverage includes major markets in India, Guatemala, Rwanda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda.

NOTES ON TAB 3: FOOD PRICE INFLATION DETERMINANTS

  • Price transmission: The presentation provides the impact of the invasion of Ukraine on food prices globally and domestically. The prices of wheat, maize, sorghum, and other food commodities increased globally and domestically, although domestic prices experienced a lag in response. The analysis shows that 75% of domestic prices move with world prices, with wheat having the highest transmission rate. The speed of transmission is relatively slow. The increase in food prices is estimated to raise poverty by 0.4 to 2.0 percentage points in six African countries, with 1.6 million people pushed into poverty in Nigeria. Many countries resist passing price increases through to domestic markets, which can magnify increases in world prices.
  • Exchange rates : Exchange rates refer to the value of one currency in relation to another currency. They are determined by the supply and demand for currencies in the global foreign exchange market, and they fluctuate constantly based on various economic and political factors. Exchange rates are important for international trade and investment, as they affect the cost of imports and exports and the value of investments denominated in foreign currencies. Exchange rates can also have significant impacts on a country's economy, including its inflation rate, trade balance, and overall growth and stability. Data sources: IMF
  • Insulation measures: The Nominal Rate of Protection (NRP) measures the extent to which a set of agricultural policies affects the market price of a commodity. It is computed as the price difference, expressed as a percentage, between the farm gate price received by producers and an undistorted reference price at the farm gate level.
  • Oil & energy prices: The oil and energy prices are from the Bloomberg.
  • Fertilizer prices: The Fertilizer Market Dashboard provides several ways to monitor the latest developments in fertilizer markets, including a summary of market developments and tools for tracking fertilizer trade, utilization, and production.

Price Alerts

Partners

United States Agency for International Development (USAID)

The Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) of the United Kingdom