Food Price Monitor

• Soft wheat - Wheat prices remained highly volatile in June, despite harvest pressure in the northern hemisphere and subdued nearby demand.
• Soybean - Soybean futures experienced high price volatility even with the presence of easing factors such as solid progress in US planting, weaker export demand, and softer vegetable oils markets.
• Rice - Rice prices showed high volatility despite prospects of higher and increased ending stocks.
• Hard wheat - Hard wheat prices mirrored the high volatility seen in soft wheat, due to production concerns in key producing regions.
• Maize - Future prices remained highly volatile despite a seasonal uptick in supplies and overall favorable production outlook for northern hemisphere in 2024/25.
• Cocoa - Cocoa prices remained highly volatile amidst concerns that the global cocoa shortage will persist due to poor crops in the key producing region of West Africa.
• Coffee -Coffee futures prices remained in high volatility, influenced by ongoing weather-related supply concerns and increased speculative demand following the cocoa market crisis.
• Sugar - Prices showed low volatility as strong Brazilian output compensated for concerns about reduced Indian exports and weather-impacted Thai sugarcane crops, easing market tensions.
• Cotton - Cotton prices showed low volatility in June, maintaining a downward trend due to favorable weather conditions in key growing regions and weak demand signals.

• Soft wheat - Wheat prices remained in high volatility, and prices reached a 9-month high in mid-May. Volatility was driven by supply concerns caused by adverse weather conditions in Russia and Brazil, as well as attacks on shipping infrastructure in the Black Sea region. Prices later retreated somewhat with forecasts of rain in Russia's dry areas.
• Soybean - Soybean prices showed significant volatility in May, initially reaching a 3-month high, d ue to concerns about over flooding in Brazil which affected 34% of the unharvested soybean crop. However, prices later eased with the report of higher forecasted output for the year. 
• Rice - Rice prices remained highly volatile throughout May, with prices initially surging to near four-year highs due to supply concerns and record-high global consumption forecasts. However, prices later eased as the WASDE report projected larger supplies and increased production in key countries for 2024/25, despite ongoing challenges such as adverse weather conditions in Asia and India's export restrictions.
• Hard wheat - Similar to soft wheat, hard wheat prices experienced high volatility driven by adverse weather conditions in major producer countries and shipping disruptions in the Black Sea region. 
• Maize - Maize prices showed high price volatility, due in part to spillover from movements in wheat markets. Moreover, wet weather conditions caused planting delays, adding some supply pressure. Adding to these supply concerns was the WASDE forecast of decreased global production with significant reductions in major producing countries like the U.S. and Ukraine. 
• Cocoa - Cocoa prices remained highly volatile as they continued their upward trajectory. This volatility was mainly driven by severe supply constraints, such as the projected drop in Ivory Coast's cocoa production and a forecasted global cocoa supply deficit for 2023/24.
• Coffee -Coffee prices showed high volatility this month, with prices climbing to a 5-week high in late May. This significant price volatility primarily resulted from severe rainfall deficits in Vietnam and Brazil, raising concerns about potential crop damage and reduced global production. 
• Sugar - Sugar prices shifted to medium volatility, plunging to a 20-month low as traders anticipated a global surplus in the 2024/2025 season. This was primarily due to Brazil's record-breaking sugar production, on track for its second-biggest crop ever, coupled with the sharp decline in crude oil prices that shifted Brazilian cane producers' focus from ethanol to sugar production. 
• Cotton - Cotton prices experienced high volatility, with prices climbing in mid-May due to supply concerns from heavy rains in key growing regions. However, prices later plummeted to their lowest levels since October 2022, as above-average rainfall in the U.S. improved crop conditions. In addition, signs of weakening demand further pressured prices downward.

• Soft wheat - Soft wheat prices showed medium volatility driven by concerns about unfavorable conditions for newly planted crops in parts of the EU, United States of America, and the Russian Federation as well as news of fresh attacks on shipping infrastructure in Ukraine.
• Soybean - High price volatility in soybean prices may have been driven by sowing conditions in the United States, though solid global supplies should calm soybean futures markets.
• Rice - Rice price volatility was at high levels in April driven by supply concerns as rice export restrictions in India continue.
• Hard wheat - As with soft wheat, hard wheat prices showed high volatility in April as tensions in the Black Sea region continued along with concerns about new crop conditions in key producers in the Northern Hemisphere.
• Maize - Maize price volatility remained low as the outlook for production and ending stocks remained little changed despite some concerns associated with weather conditions for spring planting in the Northern Hemisphere. 
• Cocoa - Cocoa prices showed high volatility mostly driven by the persistent uncertainty about regarding global supplies due to , adverse weather conditions.
• Coffee - Coffee prices continued to show high volatility in April. Futures prices increased during the first half of the month on crop concerns in Brazil and Vietnam and then sharply declined on the report of rising coffee inventories. 
• Sugar - High volatility persisted in sugar prices despite robust supply from the world’s top producers and low demand for sugarcane-based biofuel.
• Cotton - Cotton price volatility remained high with futures prices declining sharply due to prospects for a robust cotton outturn this year and the expectation of lower demand. 

• Soft wheat - Persistent competition from Black Sea supplies, heavy nearby supplies, and favorable production prospects in Russia, led to a low volatility in soft wheat market prices.
• Soybean - Despite heightened worries about the impact of suboptimal weather patterns in Brazil, soybean prices showed low price volatility.
• Rice - Despite muted buying interest and off-season crop arrivals, rice price volatility remained high. 
• Hard wheat - In contrast to soft wheat, hard wheat prices continued to exhibit high volatility.
• Maize - Maize price volatility remained low due to abundant supply, coupled with light seasonal harvest pressure and expectations for a bumper crop in Argentina.
• Cocoa - Cocoa prices showed high volatility driven by the substantial decline in cocoa production in West Africa, where more than half of the world’s cocoa beans are harvested.
• Coffee - Coffee prices continued to display high volatility, driven by a projected 20% decline in output from key producer Vietnam.
• Sugar - High volatility persisted in sugar prices due to concerns over inadequate rainfall in Brazil, exacerbated by dry weather in India and a surge in sugar ethanol prices in Brazil.
• Cotton - Cotton price volatility remained high, primarily influenced by elevated oil prices, which increase the cost of cotton-substitute polyester, and lower-than-expected planting in the U.S. 

• Soft wheat - Soft wheat prices showed low volatility resulting from sizable global supplies and strong export competition among key producers. 
• Soybean - Soybean prices shifted to medium volatility driven by improved supply prospects in South America coupled with tepid international demand for soybeans. 
• Rice - Rice price volatility remained high despite slow activities in international markets and arrivals of new crops in some markets. 
• Hard wheat - Despite an ample wheat supply from the main producers, hard wheat prices remained highly volatility.
• Maize - Maize price volatility remained low primarily due to ample supply and large domestic stocks in the U.S combined with the expectations of higher output from Brazil and Argentina. 
• Cocoa - Cocoa prices showed high volatility due to persistent concerns about poor crops in key producers persist and global supply deficit.
• Coffee - The coffee market experienced sustained high price volatility, driven by robust demand and supply concerns. 
• Sugar - Sugar prices remained in high volatility likely due to projections indicating a decline in sugar cane planting in India and lower production in Brazil. 
• Cotton - Cotton price volatility remained low, influenced by forecasts of increased global production.

• Soft wheat - Prices trended towards low volatility influenced by ample supply from South America and higher production forecasts for key producers. 
• Soybean - High price volatility persisted in the soybean market despite oversupply of the crop and concerns regarding decreased demand in China.
• Rice - Rice price volatility remained high, likely due to ongoing worries about limited supplies from major rice producers. Specifically, projections of a decline in India's rice production and the extension of the current export restrictions.
• Hard wheat - Hard wheat market exhibited high volatility, possibly driven by rumors of renewed buying by China and speculation surrounding Red Sea shipping disruptions.
• Maize - Maize price demonstrated low volatility, which can be attributed to expected abundant supplies from South America and concerns about weaker global demand.
• Cocoa - Cocoa price volatility remained low despite ongoing concerns about poor crops in key producers and forecasts about global deficit. 
• Coffee - The coffee market experiences sustained high price volatility, primarily driven by tensions in the Red Sea and significant spike in container freight rates along the Asia-Europe route.
• Sugar - Sugar prices exhibited high price volatility, despite the expectations of robust supply from Brazil, and constrained demand for biofuel due to subdued oil prices.
• Cotton - Cotton price volatility remained low, influenced by forecasts of increased global production driven by larger crops from China and Argentina.

• Hard Wheat: Ample supply and steady shipments from Russia and Ukraine weigh down the hard wheat market to show low volatility.
• Soft Wheat: Forecasts indicating ample wheat availability from key producers led to a transition in soft wheat prices, shifting from high volatility in November to a more moderate level in December.
• Maize: Despite improving weather in Brazil and falling oil prices, maize prices continued to exhibit a trend of moderating volatility this month, showcasing resilience in the face of contributing factors to a decline.
• Soybean: The surplus of old-crop soybeans, along with favorable weather conditions in Brazil, and declining oil prices collectively drove soybean prices to shift towards lower volatility in December.
• Rice: Rice prices continued to exhibit high volatility, primarily stemming from ongoing worries about supply shortages linked to the El Niño phenomenon in South and Southeast Asia.
• Sugar: Sugar prices transitioned from high to medium volatility as concerns about low supply from key Asian producers outweighed ample output from Brazil.
• Coffee: Despite improved global coffee production prospects, prices faced considerable volatility likely due to heightened forecasts for consumption.
• Cotton: Price volatility for cotton continued low, driven by projections for lower world consumption in 2023-24 compared to previous estimates, coupled with higher forecasts for world-ending stocks.
• Cocoa: cocoa price volatility remained low in December despite persistent concerns over tight supplies from the key producer region of West Africa.

• Hard wheat: The volatility of hard wheat prices decreased as global supply forecasts for the current marketing year were revised upward.
• Soft wheat: Amid positive outlooks for ample production, robust demand from China kept soft wheat prices in moderate volatility. 
• Soybean: Soybean price volatilities remained low as a result of the expected increase in global production year-on-year. 
• Rice: Rice prices continue to exhibit high volatility, albeit retracting from recent highs, as global production prospects appear more favorable compared to those in late summer. 
• Maize: Maize prices exhibited moderate volatility this month, despite the significant drop in global prices driven by increased supply from key producers like Argentina and the United States. 
• Cocoa: Cocoa prices maintained low volatility amidst renewed concerns over tight supplies in the top grower, Ivory Coast. 
• Coffee: Coffee prices faces high volatility despite enhanced output prospects in Brazil and Colombia. 
• Sugar: Sugar prices sustained high volatility in November, highlighting that improved output from Brazil does not fully alleviate the weather-related concerns in India. 
• Cotton: Cotton prices shifted to low volatility due to anticipated reduced demand in China, Turkey, and the United States.

• Hard wheat: High volatility of hard wheat prices persisted due to uncertainty arising from conflicts and reduced production in Ukraine.
• Soft wheat: As with hard wheat, soft wheat continued to face high price volatility, primarily because of reduced production and uncertainties surrounding crops in the southern hemisphere. 
• Maize: Maize prices exhibited low volatility, which is attributed to large global harvests and large estimated closing stocks.  
• Rice: High price volatility persisted due to ongoing production concerns, though the impact of El Niño on production has been less than previously feared. 
• Soybeans: Soybean prices showed low volatility, credited to ample worldwide production and notable projected closing inventories.
• Cocoa: Cocoa prices remained in low volatility despite tight supplies and strong global demand. 
• Coffee: Coffee prices remained in low volatility due to abundant rainfall in Brazil and promising yield predictions for the upcoming year.
• Cotton: Cotton prices continued to exhibit high volatility despite expectations of a substantial surplus in production for the next year.
• Sugar: Sugar prices experienced high volatility, driven by droughts in India, triggered by El Niño and bottlenecks in Brazilian ports.

• Rice: High price volatility was mainly driven by recent bans on rice exports and domestic supply restrictions imposed by major Asian producers. Concerns about potential production declines linked to El Niño added further upward pressure on prices. 
• Soft wheat: Wheat prices experienced high volatility as uncertainties in the Black Sea region persisted, and production in Canada, Australia, and Argentina is forecasted to decline. 
• Hard wheat: High-protein wheat prices remained highly volatile due to lower supply prospects caused by uncertainties in the Black Sea region and adverse weather conditions. 
• Maize: High volatility in maize prices were influenced by logistical challenges in Brazil and Argentina, as well as concerns regarding dry planting conditions for the upcoming season. 
• Soybean: Persistent tight supplies and concerns about yields continued to keep soybean prices highly volatile. 
• Cocoa: Cocoa prices remained highly volatile primarily due to concerns related to El Niño and the prospect of lower global cocoa production. 
• Coffee: Improved production prospects for Arabic coffee helped keep price volatility low in September, despite ongoing tight supplies and low inventories. 
• Cotton: Cotton prices experienced high volatility due to deteriorating production in various regions, including the United States, India, the African Franc Zone, Greece, and Mexico. 
• Sugar: Anticipated robust supply from Brazil, driven by increased precipitation, contributed to lower price volatility in the sugar market. 

• Hard wheat: Price volatility for hard wheat remains high due to uncertainty in Black Sea exports and deterioration of production prospects in several major exporting countries.  
• Soft Wheat: Similar to hard wheat, high price volatility for soft wheat is stemmed from adverse weather conditions in key exporting countries. 
•  Maize: Maize prices continued to experience high volatility with mixed production conditions in the US Midwest and dryness in Argentina. However, strong export flows from Brazil likely eased supply concerns.  
• Rice price volatility was high in August due to the effects of India’s recent export ban were felt in global markets. 
• Soybean: Soybean price volatility was high in August with the hot and dry weather conditions in the US Midwest and strong international demand. 
• Coffee: The coffee market has seen relatively low price volatility, thanks to higher coffee yields in Brazil and Vietnam, resulting in ample supply. 
• Cocoa: Cocoa prices exhibited high volatility in August with crop problems in West Africa forecast to contribute to a global supply deficit. Moreover, inventories have declined.  
• Sugar: Sugar prices have remained stable, supported by favorable output prospects in major exporting countries such as India and Thailand. 
• Cotton price: Cotton price showed high volatility due to lower crop yields in India and higher global demand for cotton.  

Price volatility in hard wheat was high in July with extreme heat continuing in key producing countries and exports from the Black Sea disrupted following the suspension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Soft wheat price volatility was high in July as extreme heat continued in key producing countries and supply concerns increased with the suspension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Maize price volatility was high in July. The suspension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative contributed to supply concerns, along with weather swings in the corn belt region of the U.S. Rice price volatility continued at high levels in July due to adverse weather. Top exporter India banned exports, sending prices climbing and contributing to concerns about the outlook for global supplies. Soybean price volatility was high in July with higher Chinese demand prospects in the face of yield concerns in the United States. Sugar price volatility eased to low levels in July with strong Brazilian production prospects. Cotton price volatility remained high in July with stressed crop conditions in the U.S. and lower demand prospects globally. Coffee price volatility eased to low levels in July as conditions for the harvest in Brazil appeared favorable, and output forecasts are optimistic. Coffee price volatility eased to low levels in July as conditions for the harvest in Brazil appeared favorable, and output forecasts are optimistic. 

Price volatility in hard wheat was high in June amid weather worries in some key producers such as Argentina, Canada, the EU and the US. Soft wheat price volatility was high in June amid weather worries in some key producers such as Argentina, Canada, the EU and the US. Maize price volatility was high in June amid sharp weather swings in the corn belt region of the US, the world's largest producer and exporter of corn. Rice price volatility continue to be at high levels in June amid concerns over the global supply as El Nino threatens yields in key producers. Importers have started building inventories at higher rates, thus pushing prices higher. Soybean price volatility was high in June amid worries about the adverse impact of hot, dry weather in the US Midwest on yield potential. Cocoa price volatility was low in June despite concerns about lower supplies the world's top cocoa producers, Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. Coffee price volatility remained high in June amid crop concerns on the impact of El Nino weather patterns on Central and South American coffee producers. Cotton price volatility remained high in June as futures prices fell in anticipation of higher global cotton production. Sugar price volatility remained high in June amid concerns of a tight supply tempered by sluggish global import demand.

Price volatility in hard wheat was high in May as futures prices fell amid expectations of larger supplies from Russia, India, the EU, and Ukraine. Soft wheat price volatility was medium in May amid reduced production of soft red winter wheat in the U.S. Maize price volatility was low in May as corn area and yield forecast remain unchanged in the U.S. Corn production is raised in Ukraine and Brazil, and lower under poorer conditions in Argentina. Rice price volatility continue to be at high levels overall in May as increased production in India is offset by reductions in Southeast Asia. Unfavorable weather in China and Pakistan is expected to result in production shortfalls. Soybean price volatility was low overall in May due to a strong supply situation with output recovering in Argentina and increased supply in the U.S. and Brazil. Cocoa price volatility was low in May despite lower supplies from the world's leading cocoa producer, Côte d'Ivoire. Coffee price volatility remained high in May amid crops concerns on the impact of  El Nino weather patterns on Central and South American coffee producers. Cotton price volatility remained high in May as futures prices fell in anticipation of higher global cotton production. Larger crops in the U.S. and Pakistan offset bale reduction in China. Sugar price volatility remained high in May as futures prices fell in anticipation of stronger supply due to weather developments in Brazil, India, and Southeast Asia.

Price volatility in hard wheat was low in April. Wheat availability is perceived to be ample as growing conditions appear to be mostly favorable and Russian supply continues to pad international markets. These factors outweighed concerns over the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the ban during April imposed by several Eastern European countries on Ukrainian imports. As with hard wheat, soft wheat price volatility was low in April due to a favorable supply outlook characterized by mostly favorable growing conditions, which outweighed concerns over the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Maize price volatility was low in April due in part to solid planting progress and improved weather in the U.S., as well as expectations of a strong upcoming harvest in Brazil. As with wheat, expected ample availabilities outweighed concerns about the uncertain future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Rice price volatility was at high levels overall in April and remains the outlier among major grains. The volatility in rice prices comes as the supply outlook appears increasingly tight, and demand remains strong – particularly from Indonesia. Earlier flooding in Pakistan has reduced availabilities, and production challenges in South and Southeast Asia may emerge soon depending on the timing and strength of the likely upcoming El Niño. Soybean price volatility was low overall in April due to a strong supply situation. Production levels in Brazil are likely to break records, weather has improved in the United States, and crude oil prices are down – which has put downward pressure on soybean oil prices. Cocoa price volatility was high April with lower supplies from Côte d'Ivoire and lower exports from Nigeria. Price volatility was high despite growing inventorie s in port warehouses. Coffee price volatility remained high in April. Despite a likely decline in demand with the prospect of a slowing global economy, supplies remain tight with coffee inventories falling. Cotton price volatility was high in April despite the USDA’s projection of higher ending stocks. Uncertainty around future demand in the face of recession fears may be contributing to the volatility, along with lower expected outturn in India. Sugar price volatility was at high levels in April due to several factors affecting sugar production in major producing countries. 
 

Price volatility in soft wheat was low in March as the mid-month extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative contributed to calm markets, though the announcement by Russia of further conditions for the agreement have since caused uncertainty about the initiative’s future. While the supply outlook is mostly favorable, there were some concerns over poor conditions of incoming cropsthe US winter wheat crop and continued dryness in North Africa. in the United States. As with soft wheat, hard wheat price volatility was low in March as the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative eased supply concerns. However, the future of the agreement is still in doubt as Russia announced further conditions for its extension beyond 60 days. Maize price volatility was low in March due in part to the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.  Low export demand due to concerns over the global economic outlook outweighed poor conditions in Argentina and uncertainly over the future of the Black Sea agreement. Rice price volatility was at moderate levels overall in March despite generally favorable growing conditions and no major shifts in demand. Volatility may be the result of the influx of new product in global markets followed by an upturn in buying interest from Indonesia. egardless, this month’s volatility reading should not signal concern. Soybean price volatility was low overall in March with record harvests in Brazil and low demand for US exports.  Cocoa price volatility was moderate overall in March with some concerns over lower supplies from Côte d'Ivoire. Coffee price volatility remained high in March with ongoing global supply concerns. There were downgrades in Arabica production estimates for both Brazil and Columbia. Cotton price volatility was high in March even as production prospects remain strong and demand is forecast to fall. As in the previous month, volatility may have been driven by uncertainty around how much demand will fall amid recession fears. Sugar price volatility was at high levels in March due to the prospects of tight global supplies and strong demand. The announced cut in OPEC+ output sent demand for ethanol soaring. 
 

Price volatility in soft wheat was low overall in January with updated higher production estimates in several wheat producing countries likely outweighing concerns over the continuing war in Urkaine and uncertainty over the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. As with soft wheat, hard wheat price volatility was low overall in February with higher production estimates in several wheat producing countries. This was likely enough to offset concerns over production prospects in Ukraine, and current shipments already running about a third behind the previous season according to Bloomberg. 

Maize price volatility was low overall in February. As with wheat, low volatility suggests sufficient global maize supplies even as dry weather has impacted production in Argentina and the future of the Black Sea export corridor is uncertain. There was slack demand from exporters in the U.S.

Rice price volatility was low overall in February. Prices varied little as buyers generally waited for the new crop to arrive on the market. The USDA outlook is for larger supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks.

Soybean price volatility was moderate overall in February as stocks of last year’s crop tightened in the U.S. and production concerns persist in Argentina over dry weather. However, the solid outturn in Brazil likely dampened volatility compared to what it would have been.

Cocoa price volatility was moderate overall in February over supply tightness in top producer Côte d'Ivoire.

Coffee price volatility remained high in February following a poor crop in Colombia last year and ongoing concerns about production in the world’s top exporter Brazil.

Cotton price volatility was high in February despite strong inventories and decent production prospects. Volatility was possibly driven by uncertainty around how much demand will fall amid recession fears.

Sugar price volatility was at high levels in February on the prospects of reduced global output.