Modeling and scenario analysis tools

This section brings together outputs of modeling and scenario analysis done by IFPRI researchers that is relevant to the Food Security Portal.

Climate adaptation in the agrifood system

The effects of climate change are already being felt, and they are projected to worsen in the course of the 21st century, with impacts varying by region. Adaptation is critical to continue pursuing sustainable development goals (SDGs), including on fighting poverty (SDG1), hunger (SDG2), and managing water resources (SDG6).

The global economic consequences of a major African swine fever outbreak in China

As the world deals with the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, the international community has started discussing more urgently how land use change and the conversion of natural habitats to agricultural or urban ecosystems can affect the risk and emergence of zoonotic diseases in humans as well as the spread of new pathogens and diseases in livestock.

Impacts Of Alternative Investment Scenarios

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and aTrade (IMPACT) explores policies that can help feed the world, reduce poverty, and protect the natural resource base. Here we examine how alternative investment scenarios affect agricultural production, productivity, and food security for the period 2010-2050 compared to a reference scenario.

Progress Towards Ending Hunger And Malnutrition: A Cross-Country Cluster Analysis

The fight against hunger is not over yet. A fight against overweight and obesity must begin. Here you can find how patterns of malnutrition are evolving across the globe.

Agricultural Subsidies and Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Agricultural production is both strongly affected by and a major contributor to climate change, accounting for a quarter of total global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Agriculture receives around US$600 billion per year worldwide in government support. However, no rigorous quantification of the impact of this support on GHG emissions has been available until now.

Food Security Simulator

The Food Security Simulator is an innovative, easy-to-use MS-Excel-based tool for assessing the potential short-term impacts of food price or household income shocks on food security and people’s diets.

The Simulator is an ideal tool for first-cut forward-looking evaluations of direct, household-level outcomes of economic crises and policy responses in a timely manner.