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Acute food insecurity has reached critical levels across Kenya’s 23 Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) and surrounding areas. An estimated 3.3 million people are currently classified in IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) Phase 3 or above, including 400,000 people in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency) who require immediate, life-saving assistance. This marks a 52 percent increase from early 2025 (2.15 million people) and exceeds the October 2025–January 2026 projection, which had estimated 2.12 million people in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above.
Additionally, refugee settlements in Dadaab, Kakuma, and Kalobeyei face similarly dire conditions. Approximately 429,000 people—around two-thirds of the population—are in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above, and all three settlements are in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency). This is driven by sharp reductions in humanitarian assistance, limited livelihood options, and high reliance on costly markets. Without a significant increase in food, non-food, and livelihood support, conditions are expected to remain critical.

In February, wheat prices firmed amid adverse weather, logistics constraints, and geopolitical tensions, despite globally ample supplies. FAO’s initial forecast for 2026 points to a 3 percent production decline due to reduced sowings and a return to average yields, with cold spells in parts of Europe and dryness in North America posing additional risks. Maize prices remained broadly stable, as strong demand for US supplies offset weaker market conditions in South America. Rice prices were mostly steady amid soft import demand and improving supplies across Asia. Soybean prices rose moderately on tighter US supplies and firmer Argentine markets despite mounting trade uncertainty. Escalating conflict in the Near East could further amplify risks to global agriculture by pushing up energy and fertilizer prices, thereby increasing production and transport costs for farmers worldwide.

Soonho Kim is a Senior Data Manager at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), where she focuses on data management and analysis. Her work involves developing and implementing data-driven tools to assess and monitor food security dynamics, particularly in response to global challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine crisis. Kim's expertise in agricultural and biological engineering and computer science has been instrumental in her role at IFPRI, where she collaborates with policymakers, governmental bodies, and academic circles to address food security vulnerabilities and enhance resilience against market and weather shocks.

Acute malnutrition in Mali is expected to decline by 29 percent compared to last year, but levels remain high with 1.12 million children aged 6–59 months and 91,000 pregnant or breastfeeding women estimated to suffer from acute malnutrition between November 2025 and October 2026. This includes 227,000 cases of severe acute malnutrition (SAM)—a 46 percent reduction compared to last year, attributed to targeted response efforts in areas previously classified in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical). In the current period (November 2025–May 2026), 18 areas are classified in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious). Continued and scaled-up humanitarian assistance is crucial to prevent further deterioration and save lives.

From February–March 2026, a staggering 6.5 million people in Somalia are estimated to be facing high levels of acute food insecurity—nearly double the population classified in IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) in August 2025. This includes more than 2 million people in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency). All affected populations urgently need assistance to protect livelihoods, reduce food deficits, and save lives.
This alarming deterioration is driven by worsening drought, rising food prices, and insecurity across central, southern, and parts of northern Somalia. The situation is compounded by declining humanitarian assistance, with a 27 percent reduction in January 2026 compared to the previous year.

More than one-fifth of the analysed population in Pakistan is facing high levels of acute food insecurity due to the residual impacts of the 2025 monsoon floods, prolonged drought and dry spells, and localised insecurity. Approximately 7.5 million people (21 percent of the analysed population) are classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between December 2025 and March 2026. This includes around 1.25 million people experiencing critical levels of acute food insecurity, IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), characterised by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. Another 6.3 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) are unable to meet their essential food requirements and forced to resort to unstainable coping measures. Immediate, life-saving assistance is needed to prevent a further deterioration and to prevent affected populations—particularly those in Phase 4—from facing catastrophic conditions.

The brief identifies which anticipatory interventions, implemented in conflict-affected contexts of Eastern and Central Africa, have empirically demonstrated the capacity to mitigate agricultural losses, sustain food production, preserve local food availability, and enhance household resilience.

Grains and oilseeds export prices edged slightly lower in January, with the IGC’s Grains and Oilseeds Index reflecting ample global supplies and year‑on‑year declines across most commodities except soybeans. Fertilizer prices continued to ease across major nutrients, although urea prices remained elevated due to rising natural gas costs.
As February 2026 begins, market fundamentals and prevailing uncertainties point to a cautiously stable outlook. Robust supplies, diversified trade flows, and adequate inventories suggest that the agrifood system can absorb moderate shocks. However, this stability should not be taken for granted. Unexpected disruptions could quickly increase volatility, underscoring the importance of open trade and greater transparency. Ongoing vigilance and sound policy choices will be essential for sustaining market stability.

Southern and eastern Madagascar continue to face persistently high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), driven by a combination of factors, including significant climatic shocks and the impacts of the recent socio-political crisis, compounded by a reduction in humanitarian assistance.
In the current period (December 2025–January 2026), more than 1.57 million people are estimated to be experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, including approximately 84,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 1.49 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). This represents a deterioration compared to the situation originally projected in the July 2025 analysis. Populations in the greater south and greater southeast, as well as in the Atsimo Andrefana and Anosy regions, are particularly affected by these conditions.
For the projection period (February–April 2026), the overall trend points towards a further deterioration of the food security situation, with an estimated 1.8 million people likely to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This includes nearly 71,000 people expected to be in IPC Phase 4 and 1.73 million people projected to be in IPC Phase 3. This deterioration is in line with projections for the greater southeast area, where all analysed districts are expected to remain in Phase 3, driven by the combined effects of cyclone and flood risks, access constraints, and sustained health pressures. The most affected districts are projected to include Amboasary Atsimo (Anosy), Ampanihy (Atsimo Andrefana), and Mahanoro, Vatomandry and Maroantsetra.

An estimated 2 million children aged 6–59 months are suffering or expected to suffer acute malnutrition in Chad between October 2025 and September 2026, including nearly 484,000 children expected to suffer severe acute malnutrition. More than 219,000 pregnant or breastfeeding women are likely to suffer acute malnutrition during the same period. The national nutrition situation is expected to remain at similar levels to the previous year with a variation of less than 5 percent.
During the current period (October 2025–January 2026), eight areas are classified as IPC Acute Malnutrition (AMN) Phase 4 (Critical), while populations are facing IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious) conditions in 29 areas. The nutrition situation is expected to improve slightly during the first projection period of February–May 2026 due to a decline in diseases and epidemics, improved food consumption, and receding floods leading to improved water and sanitation conditions.
Coinciding with the peak malnutrition season, the situation will progressively worsen during the second projection period from June–September 2026, with 15 areas projected to deteriorate from Phase 3 to Phase 4, bringing the total number of areas in Phase 4 to 24. This represents more than a third of the units analysed. In addition, six areas will deteriorate from Phase 2 to Phase 3.
Malnutrition in Chad is driven by a number of factors, including inadequate food intake and poor dietary diversity among children, high prevalence of childhood diseases, high levels of acute food insecurity and poor water, hygiene and sanitation conditions, as well as shocks such as flooding and insecurity.