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Markets for wheat, maize, rice and soybeans remain well supplied as of November. Global crop conditions remain generally favorable, though localized challenges persist. Early-season drought is affecting winter wheat sowing in China, the European Union, and Ukraine, while excessive rains are hampering maize harvesting in China and the United States. In addition, tropical storms in Viet Nam and Thailand have damaged rice crops. Despite these disruptions, prices declined for all major crops except soybeans, which saw slight gains. Fertilizer prices also eased but remain high relative to crop values, weighing on fertilizer demand. The outlook is clouded by the US government shutdown, which has been disrupting the release of crucial market reports, coupled with policy uncertainty and evolving trade policies.

Food security in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is deteriorating as conflict continues to drive tens of thousands of people from their homes.
Approximately 24.8 million people (21 percent of the population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity between September and December 2025. More than 3.2 million people (3 percent of the population) are facing Emergency levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 4), characterised by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition, while 21.5 million people (18 percent of the population) are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Three territories—Djugu and Mambasa (Ituri) and Masisi (North Kivu)—are now classified in Phase 4, whereas no areas were classified in Phase 4 in the previous analysis for the same period last year.
The overall food security situation is likely to worsen over the projection period (January-June 2026) as 26.6 million people (22 percent of the population) are projected to face Phase 3 or above—an increase of 1.8 million people compared to the current period. Six additional territories are expected to see their situation deteriorate to Phase 4. They are Lubero and Walikale (North Kivu), Kalehe and Fizi (South Kivu), Kongolo and Moba (Tanganyika). Djugu, Mambasa and Masisi will continue to be in Phase 4.
The persistent conflict and population displacement as well as flooding and impacts of the lean season, especially in the eastern part of the country, will drive this deterioration. This, combined with the expected further reductions in humanitarian food aid will leave vulnerable populations at risk of slipping into higher levels of acute food insecurity.

Food insecurity and malnutrition in South Sudan remain extremely high, driven primarily by localised conflict and expanding civil insecurity that have displaced large populations, as well as by widespread flooding that continues to disrupt livelihoods and agricultural production.
During the current analysis period (September to November 2025), an estimated 5.97 million people (42 percent of the analysed population) in South Sudan are facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC AFI Phase 3 or above), of which around 1.3 million people are facing Emergency (IPC AFI Phase 4) conditions. During this period, as well as the two projection periods, approximately 28,000 people are classified in IPC AFI Phase 5 (Catastrophe), including 17,000 people in Luakpiny/Nasir (Upper Nile) and 11,000 people in Fangak (Jonglei).Luakpiny/Nasir County, particularly its southern parts along the Sobatcorridor, remains a major concern, with populations facing a risk of Famine during bothprojection periods under a plausible worst-case scenario.
During the harvest and post-harvest projection period (December 2025 and March 2026), an estimated 5.86 million people (41 percent of the analysed population) are expected to face IPC AFI Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) conditions. The situation is expected to worsen significantly during the lean season (April to July 2026), with 7.55 million people (53 percent of the analysed population) projected to experience high level of food insecurity (IPC AFI Phase 3 or above).

As of September 2025, El Fasher town (North Darfur) and the besieged town of Kadugli (South Kordofan) were classified in Famine (IPC Phase 5) with reasonable evidence. These conditions are expected to persist through January 2026. Conditions in the besieged town of Dilling (South Kordofan) are estimated to be similar to those in Kadugli town; however, the lack of data prevents IPC classification of this area.
Uncertainty surrounding the evolution of conflict heightens the risk of Famine, particularly in 20 areas expected to receive displaced populations across North, South, and East Darfur, as well as West and South Kordofan.
In September 2025, at the peak of the lean season, an estimated 21.2 million people—45 percent of the population—faced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), including 375,000 people in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) and 6.3 million people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).
Food security conditions will improve after the harvest, leading to a decline in the number of people in IPC Phase 3 or above to 19.2 million people between October 2025 and January 2026. However, in North Darfur and the Western Nuba Mountains, gains from the harvest will remain limited due to conflict and insecurity. During the post-harvest and pre-lean season (February - May 2026), acute food insecurity is projected to worsen with an estimated 19.1 million people (41%) expected to face IPC Phase 3 or above conditions. This apparent reduction in numbers is primarily due to the inability to classify several high-concern areas.

Approximately 4 million people (22 percent of the analysed population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between October 2025 and March 2026 – the lean season in Malawi. Of that total, 8,000 people are facing critical levels of acute food insecurity, IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), driven by high food prices, economic decline and below average agricultural production. Phase 4 is characterised by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. These people urgently require Immediate, life-saving assistance to prevent a catastrophe.
Most of the populations in Phase 3 or above are urban poor and low-income households in rural areas who are not able to produce enough of their own food and are dependent on crisis coping strategies to meet their food needs through market purchases. These strategies include harvesting immature crops, reducing expenses on essential health, and exchanging labour for food due to lack of resources or money to buy food. The situation is exacerbated by the persisting depreciate of the Malawian kwacha against major currencies, including the US dollar, Euro and the South African Rand, the high transportation cost and high food prices.

Approximately 1.7 million people (17 percent of the population analysed) are likely to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between October 2025 and March 2026. This is an increase compared to the current period (May – September 2025) where 1.2 million people (12 percent of the population) experienced Phase 3 or above. However, it is a significant improvement compared to the overall situation in 2024 (April – September) where 4.9 million people (29 percent of the population analysed) faced Phase 3 or above.
The large reduction in people facing Phase 3 or above compared to May to September 2024, is largely due to Zambia returning to normalcy after a peculiar year that saw widespread drought across the country.
Despite the improvement in the overall food security situation, 1.7 million people are still in urgent need of humanitarian food assistance to reduce food gaps, protect and restore livelihoods, as well as to prevent acute malnutrition. This includes 9,900 people classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency)—primarily in Mitete, Shang’ombo, and Sikongo districts in the Western province—and 1.69 million people classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). During the projection period, a total of 43 hotspot districts are projected to face Phase 3 or above.

Namibia’s food security situation has improved significantly in 2025 compared to the previous year. In the current period (July to September 2025), approximately 456,000 people (15 percent of the analysed population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above)—a sharp decrease from 1.15 million in the same period last year. While three regions (Kunene, Kavango West, and Zambezi) remain in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis), the rest of the country is classified in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed), with households experiencing minimally adequate food consumption but struggling to meet essential non-food needs without resorting to negative coping mechanisms. This improvement is largely due to above-average rainfall during the 2024/25 season, increased crop production, improved rangeland conditions, and coordinated interventions by the government and development partners.
The food security situation is expected to deteriorate during the lean season (October to March 2026), with projections showing an increase to 612,000 people (20 percent) in Phase 3. This worsening is attributed to the discontinuation of the countrywide drought relief from the Government in August 2025, reduced labour opportunities, high unemployment (nationally at 36.9 percent as per the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA)), and poor livestock conditions in drought-prone areas.

Armed gangs continue to expand territorial control within Haiti, driving over half of the population—nearly 5.7 million people—into high levels of acute food insecurity. Gang violence, coupled with a suffocating economy are leaving the Haitian people in a desperate situation.
Food security continues to deteriorate. Out of the 5.7 million people facing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above), 17 percent of the population (1.9 million people) are facing Emergency levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 4), characterised by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. An additional 3.8 million people (34 percent of the population) face Crisis levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3).
The situation in Haiti is a complex, multi-dimensional crisis, marked by an economy that has been in steady decline for several years—recording economic recessions for the last six years—and attacks by armed gangs that have led to massive population displacements and the deterioration of livelihoods. Data from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) indicates that approximately 1.3 million people are now internally displaced in Haiti, a 24 percent increase compared to December 2024. Between June and July 2025, the number of internally displaced person (IDP) sites increased from 246 to 272. This increase is mainly due to displacement caused by armed attacks in the Centre department since April 2025.

More than 258,000 people living in rural areas of Lesotho (17 percent of the population analysed) have been experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between May and September 2025. These people require urgent action to reduce food gaps, protect and restore livelihoods, and prevent acute malnutrition.
Eight of the 10 districts analysed are, classified in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed), while the remaining three districts—Mafeteng, Maseru, and Mohale’s Hoek— are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). The onset of rains that started from in late October to November 2024 enabled the timely start of planting in the lowlands. However, the country experienced dry spells and high temperatures at the crucial growth stage of cropping between December 2024 and January 2025. Other drivers of acute food insecurity include livestock disease outbreaks, high food prices and reduced agricultural opportunities due to decreased areas planted. Food availability remains a minor limiting factor as food will be available from the markets. From November 2025, the poorer populations are expected to experience food gaps from November 2025.
During the projected period (October 2025 to March 2026), around 334,000 people (22 percent of the rural population analysed) are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity Phase 3 or above. Nine of the 10 districts are expected to be classified in Phase 3 (Crisis. Only Leribe is likely to be in Phase 2 in the projection period. The main hazards projected During the projected period (October 2025 to March 2026), around 334,000 people (22 percent of the rural population analysed) are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity Phase 3 or above. Nine of the 10 districts are expected to be classified in Phase 3 (Crisis. Only Leribe is likely to be in Phase 2 in the projection period.

Approximately 1.17 million people (10 percent of the population analysed) in Burundi experienced Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of acute food insecurity between August and September 2025. The situation was driven by the combined impact of current macroeconomic conditions, climatic shocks, conflicts in cross-border areas, inflation, rising food and fuel prices, as well as currency depreciation and significant reductions in humanitarian assistance. The urban poor and low-income households in rural areas were most affected.
The situation is expected to deteriorate in the first projection period (October to December 2025), with approximately 15 percent of the population (1.8 million people) likely to experience Phase 3—an increase of 630,000 people compared to the current period. This deterioration in the food situation is projected due to the decrease or depletion of household food reserves, reduced livelihood opportunities, the expected further reduction in humanitarian food assistance, and the intensification of the macroeconomic crisis. Food prices are likely to reach high levels on the markets.