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This research brief presents evidence that shifting attention from single shocks and population averages toward cumulative, multi-shock exposure can substantially improve anticipatory action, targeting, and the effectiveness of scarce humanitarian and development resources.

This study uses FAO Data in Emergencies (DIEM) survey data from 5,396 households to examine compound vulnerability and food security in Somalia. These households have experienced a variety of simultaneous shocks, including economic, agricultural, natural, conflict-related, and idiosyncratic occurrences. This study precisely measured these shocks using both parametric and non-parametric Multi-Shock Indices. Cumulative shock exposure was low to moderate on average (13.3–14.6 percent of the maximum achievable), but there was a sizable minority at high levels of exposure: 1,142 households surpassed mean-plus-one standard deviation under the parametric MSI, while 1,350 households exceeded the 75th percentile using the non-parametric MSI. High-risk households were concentrated within vulnerable socio-demographic categories (e.g., female-headed households, less educated household heads, and displaced households) and within certain regions (e.g., Woqooyi Galbeed, Lower Shabelle, and Mudug). Inadequate food security outcomes, such as lower Food Consumption Scores, inadequate dietary diversity, and the use of crisis or emergency coping mechanisms, were closely linked to high MSI values. The parametric MSI also indicated a non-linear amplification for greater levels of cumulative exposure; specific combinations of shocks, such as increasing food prices with animal disease or lost work, had particularly powerful, detrimental impacts. In order to help vulnerable households before shocks occur, these findings emphasize the significance of shock-sensitive and tailored interventions that connect numerous shock indicators to traditional food insecurity measures.

Acute food insecurity has reached critical levels across Kenya’s 23 Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) and surrounding areas. An estimated 3.3 million people are currently classified in IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) Phase 3 or above, including 400,000 people in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency) who require immediate, life-saving assistance. This marks a 52 percent increase from early 2025 (2.15 million people) and exceeds the October 2025–January 2026 projection, which had estimated 2.12 million people in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above.
Additionally, refugee settlements in Dadaab, Kakuma, and Kalobeyei face similarly dire conditions. Approximately 429,000 people—around two-thirds of the population—are in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above, and all three settlements are in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency). This is driven by sharp reductions in humanitarian assistance, limited livelihood options, and high reliance on costly markets. Without a significant increase in food, non-food, and livelihood support, conditions are expected to remain critical.

In February, wheat prices firmed amid adverse weather, logistics constraints, and geopolitical tensions, despite globally ample supplies. FAO’s initial forecast for 2026 points to a 3 percent production decline due to reduced sowings and a return to average yields, with cold spells in parts of Europe and dryness in North America posing additional risks. Maize prices remained broadly stable, as strong demand for US supplies offset weaker market conditions in South America. Rice prices were mostly steady amid soft import demand and improving supplies across Asia. Soybean prices rose moderately on tighter US supplies and firmer Argentine markets despite mounting trade uncertainty. Escalating conflict in the Near East could further amplify risks to global agriculture by pushing up energy and fertilizer prices, thereby increasing production and transport costs for farmers worldwide.

Soonho Kim is a Senior Data Manager at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), where she focuses on data management and analysis. Her work involves developing and implementing data-driven tools to assess and monitor food security dynamics, particularly in response to global challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine crisis. Kim's expertise in agricultural and biological engineering and computer science has been instrumental in her role at IFPRI, where she collaborates with policymakers, governmental bodies, and academic circles to address food security vulnerabilities and enhance resilience against market and weather shocks.

Acute malnutrition in Mali is expected to decline by 29 percent compared to last year, but levels remain high with 1.12 million children aged 6–59 months and 91,000 pregnant or breastfeeding women estimated to suffer from acute malnutrition between November 2025 and October 2026. This includes 227,000 cases of severe acute malnutrition (SAM)—a 46 percent reduction compared to last year, attributed to targeted response efforts in areas previously classified in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical). In the current period (November 2025–May 2026), 18 areas are classified in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious). Continued and scaled-up humanitarian assistance is crucial to prevent further deterioration and save lives.

From February–March 2026, a staggering 6.5 million people in Somalia are estimated to be facing high levels of acute food insecurity—nearly double the population classified in IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) in August 2025. This includes more than 2 million people in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency). All affected populations urgently need assistance to protect livelihoods, reduce food deficits, and save lives.
This alarming deterioration is driven by worsening drought, rising food prices, and insecurity across central, southern, and parts of northern Somalia. The situation is compounded by declining humanitarian assistance, with a 27 percent reduction in January 2026 compared to the previous year.

More than one-fifth of the analysed population in Pakistan is facing high levels of acute food insecurity due to the residual impacts of the 2025 monsoon floods, prolonged drought and dry spells, and localised insecurity. Approximately 7.5 million people (21 percent of the analysed population) are classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between December 2025 and March 2026. This includes around 1.25 million people experiencing critical levels of acute food insecurity, IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), characterised by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. Another 6.3 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) are unable to meet their essential food requirements and forced to resort to unstainable coping measures. Immediate, life-saving assistance is needed to prevent a further deterioration and to prevent affected populations—particularly those in Phase 4—from facing catastrophic conditions.

The brief identifies which anticipatory interventions, implemented in conflict-affected contexts of Eastern and Central Africa, have empirically demonstrated the capacity to mitigate agricultural losses, sustain food production, preserve local food availability, and enhance household resilience.

Grains and oilseeds export prices edged slightly lower in January, with the IGC’s Grains and Oilseeds Index reflecting ample global supplies and year‑on‑year declines across most commodities except soybeans. Fertilizer prices continued to ease across major nutrients, although urea prices remained elevated due to rising natural gas costs.
As February 2026 begins, market fundamentals and prevailing uncertainties point to a cautiously stable outlook. Robust supplies, diversified trade flows, and adequate inventories suggest that the agrifood system can absorb moderate shocks. However, this stability should not be taken for granted. Unexpected disruptions could quickly increase volatility, underscoring the importance of open trade and greater transparency. Ongoing vigilance and sound policy choices will be essential for sustaining market stability.