What's New

Currently, 80% of the world’s people rely on just three agricultural commodities as primary food staples: Maize, rice, and wheat. Production of these staple foods is concentrated in a small number of countries and regions, often called “breadbaskets.” At the same time, the incidence of climate-driven droughts, storms, floods, and related shocks is on the rise, creating large-scale threats to agricultural production in these areas. Recent research suggests that climate change will increase both the volatility of agricultural output and correlations across regions.

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) convened its first workshop for the Google.org–funded project “Prediction of Food Crisis Risks” on November 3, 2025. The hybrid meeting, moderated by Dr. Betina Dimaranan, brought together researchers from across IFPRI and partner institutions to share early findings, discuss technical progress, and chart the project’s strategic direction.

The FAO Food Price Index fell 1.6 percent in October, driven by lower cereals, dairy, meat, and sugar prices. The October Index was 21 percent below its March 2022 peak.

How do wars, tariff disputes and currency fluctuations affect the international trade in agricultural products? Poor countries suffer disproportionately from inflation risks and food insecurity.

Consumers around the world have seen food prices going up ever since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. While food price inflation has slowed more recently, concerns over the rising cost of living have not gone away. Why is this and should we expect the cost of our daily meals to go up even more in the foreseeable future?

Global food price shocks

Reductions in cereal and vegetable oil prices contributed to a slight decline in the FAO Food Price Index in September. The Index remains nearly 20 percent below its March 2022 peak but rose 3.4 percent from September 2024.