FAO Food Price Index Rises Marginally in June

The FAO Food Price Index rose marginally in June to reach nearly 6 percent above its June 2024 level. Declining cereal and sugar prices were balanced by increases in meat, dairy, and vegetable oil prices. The Index remained more than 20 percent below the high seen in March 2022.

The Cereal Price Index declined by 1.5 percent in June and by nearly 7 percent from June 2024. Increased seasonal supplies in several major producing countries drove maize prices down, while rice prices fell due to slowing demand. Wheat prices increased due to concerns over weather in Russia, the European Union, and the United States.

The Vegetable Oil Price Index rose 2.3 percent in June and 18.2 percent from June 2024. Palm oil prices increased by almost 5 percent due to strong demand. Soy oil prices also increased due to forecast higher demand from the biofuel sector.

The Meat and Dairy Price Indices rose by 2.1 and 0.5 percent, respectively, while the Sugar Price Index declined by 5.2 percent.

The latest AMIS Market Monitor reported ample global supplies for most staple commodities, but uncertainties driven by extreme weather events and shifting trade policies remain. In addition, geopolitical instability continues to drive volatility in global fertilizer markets. This month’s AMIS editorial highlights the importance of strategic grain reserves to help manage these uncertainties and safeguard global and regional food security.

Global wheat production forecasts rose slightly this month, with overall output expected to be slightly above 2024 levels. Utilization forecasts declined slightly, but utilization is still expected to be above the previous year’s level. Global wheat trade is expected to be 4 percent above the previous season despite some marginal declines this month. Global wheat ending stocks are forecast to be above their opening levels.

 Maize production forecast rose this month due to higher expected output in Brazil and India; overall production is expected to reach a record high in 2025. Maize utilization forecasts also rose month-on-month, with overall utilization expected to be 0.6 percent higher than the previous year. Trade expectations remained stable this month, with trade expected to fall by 2 percent year-on-year due to lower import demand and smaller sales. Global maize ending stock expectations rose slightly this month.

Rice production forecasts rose slightly due to higher-than-expected output in several major producing countries. Utilization expectations increased slightly due to higher demand for food and non-food use, while trade forecasts rose marginally. Global rice ending stocks are expected to rise from 2024 levels.

Soybean production forecasts remained stable this month, with overall production expected to increase slightly in 2025. Utilization forecasts rose slightly due to increased demand from Brazil’s biodiesel sector. Soybean trade forecasts also remained stable this month, with trade expected to increase by 2 percent from 2024, while global soybean ending stocks are expected to remain stable from their opening levels.

Global fertilizer markets continued to see significant volatility in June, driven largely by production stoppages in the Near East and strong seasonal demand for natural gas. Overall price increases were moderated by declining demand in the northern hemisphere.