Outline
The outbreak of the war in Ukraine sent fertilizer prices soaring to all-time highs as prices for natural gas, a key feedstock for nitrogenous fertilizer production, drove production cutbacks and sanctions and export restrictions disrupted exports. These drivers of market turmoil intensified fears of reduced global food production and higher food prices. While global supply continues to rebound and prices abate, risks linger and monitoring market developments remains key.
The Fertilizer Market Dashboard provides you several ways to monitor the latest developments in fertilizer markets, including a summary of market developments and tools for tracking fertilizer trade, utilization, and production.
Fertilizer Dashboard
Latest market developments
This section includes the latest fertilizer market developments (June 2023). Select the panels below for specific fertilizer products and natural gas. For previous months, click the "Market Overview" tab of the Fertilizer Dashboard below.
Prices for most fertilizer products continued their downward trend in June. Price decreases in the face of several supply-related events during the month point to well-supplied global markets. The sustained decrease in natural gas prices continues to support production of nitrogen-based fertilizers. Seasonal low demand in the Northern Hemisphere for several fertilizers also contributed to lower prices.
Natural gas
Natural gas prices decreased slightly in June with sufficient supplies and gas storage at high levels. However, the market experienced relatively high price volatility due in part to production outages in Norway and uncertainty in the Russian Federation following the staged uprising of the Wagner mercenary group.
Ammonia
Ammonia prices decreased considerably in most markets except for Western Europe where prices went up, though that increase is likely to be temporary. In Europe, prices of imported ammonia remain lower than production costs but additional declines in natural gas prices may reverse this situation. A decline in Indonesian exports outside of Asia is similarly indicative of strong global supplies, showing that buyers outside of the region are being able to find enough product elsewhere.
Urea
Urea prices were down as supply remained plentiful and natural gas prices continued their decline, encouraging production particularly in Europe where high costs had curbed output for months. Meanwhile, demand has fallen with a slow market in the U.S. until applications restart in autumn. The EU reinstated a tariff on imported ammonia, which is unlikely to influence world markets.
Diammonium phosphate (DAP)
DAP prices decreased in June, particularly in the US Gulf due to the lower demand as the application period ended in the Northern Hemisphere. DAP prices in India, the world’s major importer, have consistently dropped this year with the country’s stock levels climbing.
Potash
Potash prices were marginally down in the US Gulf due to lower demand. Prices in Brazil also continued their decent as inventories remained high. A low Chinese contract price contributed a softer tone to the market.
Fertilizer market analysis by IFPRI & FSP
Here you can find a selection of IFPRI and FSP analysis on fertilizer markets.
