Outline
The outbreak of the war in Ukraine sent fertilizer prices soaring to all-time highs as prices for natural gas, a key feedstock for nitrogenous fertilizer production, drove production cutbacks and sanctions and export restrictions disrupted exports. These drivers of market turmoil intensified fears of reduced global food production and higher food prices. While global supply continues to rebound and prices abate, risks linger and monitoring market developments remains key.
The Fertilizer Market Dashboard provides you several ways to monitor the latest developments in fertilizer markets, including a summary of market developments and tools for tracking fertilizer trade, utilization, and production.
Fertilizer Dashboard
Fertilizer Market Developments
Monthly assessments of fertilizer market developments were prepared for the AMIS Market Monitor. You can find a summary of all months on the "Market Overview" tab of the Fertilizer Market Dashboard above.
Overview of market developments in May 2024 (updated in June)
Fertilizer prices were stable to soft in May. The tighter-than- expected domestic market in China is delaying the return of Chinese urea exports that would have increased supply on global markets. The timing of the full return of urea and phosphate exports from China remains a critical factor for global fertilizer markets.
Fertilizer input prices
US natural gas prices were up in May, but supplies remain ample. High temperatures in Asia, prompting need for energy generation, increased competition among major LNG hubs, tightening markets. Forecasts of heat in Europe also supported prices, as did the possible sudden halt in Russian supply to Austria. Increased output from Norway and solid European inventories limit potential market upsides. Ammonia prices remain supported East of Suez on supply constraints in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, while benchmarks West of Suez are softening with the seasonal slowdown in demand.
Nitrogen fertilizer prices
Urea prices were down slightly month-on-month as Arab Gulf producers resumed full production at a time of low import demand from large buyers including India. However, the month ended on a firmer note. The return of exports from China was delayed, while Egyptian export prices surged after the announcement of a reduction in natural gas supply to industrial users. Firmer grain markets also improved fertilizer affordability in key buying markets.
Phosphorus fertilizer prices
Phosphate prices moved downwards month-on-month, particularly in India. Exports out of Morocco are seasonally low, and despite the recent easing of export restrictions, exports from China remain below average. Against this backdrop, a firmer tone prevails on an anticipated increase of demand in Brazil and India in the coming weeks. In the US, the increase of countervailing duties on phosphorus fertilizer imports from Morocco may continue to support prices.
Potash prices
Potash prices were stable month-on-month. The market still lacks clear references in the absence of price settlement for India’s long-term contract for potash supply. However, the sentiment at the recent industry gathering of the International Fertilizer Association (IFA) was slightly bearish on estimates of ample supply.
Fertilizer market analysis by IFPRI & FSP
Here you can find a selection of IFPRI and FSP analysis on fertilizer markets.
