Over the past decade, worldwide food prices have weathered numerous shocks originating from supply interruptions, shifts in biofuel demand, and trade barriers. This volatility has disproportionately impacted food security, notably in low-income nations heavily reliant on imports. In response to this challenge, policymakers require more precise insights into countries' susceptibilities to diverse shocks. The Global Shocks Vulnerability Analysis tool aims to introduce a vulnerability metric that quantifies nations' proneness to food price escalations, considering factors like dietary patterns, import reliance, and levels of food security.
Vulnerability hinges on multiple factors, including the reverberations of global price fluctuations on local markets, the presence of substitutes, the role a commodity plays in household budgets, and the broader context of a nation's food security and income situation.
However, developing a vulnerability index that encompasses all these aspects necessitates intricate data from household budget surveys, a challenge due to complexity and availability constraints. A vulnerability index limited to specific countries would also yield limited insights. Our emphasis is on an index that aligns with four criteria: accurately capturing negative impacts, offering widespread applicability, relying on quantifiable variables, and being user-friendly for independent computation.
The proposed approach introduces the Food Import Vulnerability Index (FIVI), designed for assessment at the country-commodity level. Concentrating on pivotal staples in national diets, FIVI comprises three components: the portion of daily caloric intake derived from the commodity, the ratio of imported commodity consumption, and an indicator reflecting the level of food insecurity in the given nation.
The rationale behind using a multiplicative index is to ensure that vulnerability registers zero if caloric intake from the given food commodity is null, or in the absence of imports, or where food security issues are negligible. On the contrary, a hypothetical value of 100 would indicate that a) the commodity encompasses the entirety of calories consumed, b) all domestic commodity supply is imported, and c) the entire population experiences moderate to severe food insecurity.
Vulnerability Dashboard (V2)
The previous version
The previous tool effectively served to identify early on exposure to the shocks to global food and fertilizer markets caused by the war in Ukraine that started in February 2022.
Please explore the previous version of the Global Shocks Vulnerability Analysis tool by clicking the link below