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Vulnerability to Global Food Price Shocks V.2: General Food Import Dependence

Outline

Relevant resources

International food prices are volatile. Prices for major staple crops, like wheat, maize, rice, and oil seeds have suffered major up- and downswings creating uncertain market conditions for farmers and unstable food access for consumers. This international price volatility is disproportionately impacting consumers in low-income countries that are heavily reliant on food imports. The FSP’s "Vulnerability to Global Food Price Shocks V.2: General Food Import Dependence" provides new metrics quantifying country-level vulnerability to changes in international prices for major staple crops.

The new Food Import Vulnerability Index (FIVI) facilitates a rapid assessment of the risk to national food security of international food price shocks for 182 countries. Commodity-level FIVI scores indicate the vulnerability of a country to higher world prices for each staple food, while a country’s FIVI measures the vulnerability of the country to higher world food prices in general. Both the commodity-level FIVI and the national FIVI are based on the following three components:

  1. Share of caloric food intake, calculated as the share of staple crops in total food-energy consumption measured in calorie intake.
  2. Food import dependence, which is the share of net imports of each staple food in total domestic food consumption of the commodity.
  3. Prevalence of food insecurity, defined as the share of the population that faces moderate or severe food insecurity according to the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES)

The commodity-level Food Import Vulnerability Index (FIVI) is calculated as the geometric mean of the three components listed above for each staple food and each country. The commodity-level FIVI is calculated for the 15 most important staple foods: wheat, rice, maize, sorghum, millet, cassava, yams, potatoes, sweet potatoes, plantains, beans, groundnuts, soybeans, sugar, and vegetable oils. ...

Please note that if a country is a net exporter of the commodity, the food import dependence is considered zero for the purpose of calculating the FIVI, resulting in a vulnerability index of zero for that commodity.
The country FIVI combines the commodity-level FIVIs for the 15 staple foods into one national index. More specifically, it is calculated as the geometric mean of the share of staple calories that are imported and the share of the population that is moderately or severely food insecure. The former is calculated as the weighted average of import dependence of the 15 staple foods, where the weights are the contribution of the commodity to caloric intake in the country. More information on the data sources and methods can be found in the Methods section.
The rationale behind using a multiplicative index is to ensure that the FIVI = 0 if there is a) zero caloric intake from the food commodity, b) the commodity is not imported, or c) none of the population is food insecure. For the FIVI score to be 100, the commodity would need to account for all of the caloric intake, all domestic supply of the commodity would need to come from imports, and the entire population would need to experience moderate or severe food insecurity. These are the extremes. In practice, the national FIVI ranges between 1 and 84, with the highest value found for Yemen.
In addition to major staple crops like maize, wheat, rice, and sorghum, the Food Import Vulnerability Index (FIVI) also incorporates metrics on lesser-traded consumer products that nevertheless contribute significantly to caloric intake in vulnerable countries. Specifically, cassava, plantains, yams, and millet have been included in the index calculations. These commodities account for at least 15% of caloric intake in 10 out of the 26 countries where the Prevalence of Undernourishment (PoU) is equal to or greater than 20%, and where moderate food insecurity impacts at least 59% of the population. In scenarios of external shocks affecting food security, these lesser-traded staples serve as important substitutes and should be integrated into policy considerations.

A dashboard with world maps, table and methodology can be found for each indicator by clicking on the tabs below.

1. Share of caloric intakes

Overview

All Staples: The distribution of staple crops is not uniform across the globe. Low- and middle-income countries tend to rely more heavily on staple crops, emphasizing their importance in these regions. This map shows the combined share of caloric intake coming from all 9 commodities across the world. These products account for at least 30% of the calorie intake of different countries.
Main Commodities: These commodities can vary based on regional dietary preferences and food availability. In a global context, wheat, rice, and maize emerge as the dominant staples.
Wheat: Wheat is predominantly consumed in the Middle East and Central Asia, with Afghanistan leading the way, where it accounts for a substantial 61.5% of daily caloric intake. Turkmenistan closely follows at 50.7% while the Central African Republic 1.55% and DR Congo (1.64%) are the countries where it is consumed the least. Rice: Rice holds primary staple status in Asia and certain parts of Africa. Bangladesh stands out as the most rice-dependent country, with a staggering 66.4% of its caloric intake originating from rice.
Maize: Maize is a predominant staple in East and South Africa, as well as in Mexico and Central America. Malawi leads the world, with maize contributing to 47.9% of daily calorie intake.
Sorghum: The caloric intake of sorghum is predominant in Africa. Especially in South Sudan and Sudan where this commodity contributing to 23% and 20.7% of their caloric intake, respectively.
Millet: Millet takes precedence in Niger, where it constitutes 27.8% of daily caloric intake.
Plantain: Sub-Saharan countries are known for their reliance on plantains, with the Democratic Republic of Congo being a notable example, boasting the highest share of caloric intake attributed to plantains.
Cassava: Cassava serves as a primary caloric source in several sub-Saharan countries, underlining its significance in local diets.
Vegetable Oil: Spain, Greece, and the United Arab Emirates are top consumers of vegetable oil, significantly contributing to their caloric intake.
Yam: represents a relatively low share of caloric intake on a global scale, with limited consumption in comparison to other staples.
Plantain: Uganda has the highest share of caloric intake coming from plantains, although it's not a common staple in the rest of the world.

The contribution of each commodity to the caloric intake for each country is calculated using the FAO Food Balance Sheets. These data are available on an annual basis for 183 countries. We use data for 2020, the most recent available, and 15 staple foods: wheat, rice, maize, sorghum, millet, cassava, sweet potatoes, yams, plantains, beans, groundnuts, soybeans, sugar, and vegetable oil. In the FAO database, the cereals, cassava, and potatoes include products made from the staple crop such as wheat bread and cassava flour. Vegetable oil is an aggregated category that includes 13 types of oil in the original FAO database. We calculate the contribution of each major staple foods to the total caloric intake for the country as follows:


The 15 staple foods included in the index are wheat, rice, maize, sorghum, millet, cassava, sweet potatoes, yams, plantains, beans, groundnuts, soybeans, sugar, and vegetable oil. In the FAO database, the cereals, cassava, and potatoes include products made from the staple crop such as wheat bread and cassava flour. Vegetable oil is an aggregated category that includes 13 types of oil in the original FAO database. In theory, the caloric share for each commodity can vary between 0 and 100 percent, but in practice it is rarely greater than 50 percent.

2. Food import dependence

Overview

The share of imports in a country's domestic food supply is an indicator of the degree of vulnerability to exogenous shocks. Through this map, we illustrate the contribution of imports to the consumption of the different countries covered. Wheat, maize and rice are the most imported commodities, leading to a high dependency in several countries in Africa and South America. Highlights by product/country/region are presented below.
All Staples: All products combined, there is a concentration of the most dependent imports countries in Africa. Indeed, more than a dozen of the countries in the continent have a high index (above 50%). In the African continent, the most vulnerable countries are Djibouti (99.06%), Mauritius (94.80%).
Main Commodities: Regarding wheat, maize and rice, four countries appear to be the most vulnerable because of their status as net importers (Djibouti, Oman, Bahrain and Iceland), while 22 countries are self-sufficient. Africa remains the continent with the highest number of import-vulnerable countries. Wheat: Wheat is a widely traded commodity across 183 countries. Among them, 26 countries serve as net exporters, meeting 100% of the consumption needs for 63 other countries. The remaining countries exhibit varying degrees of dependence on wheat imports, ranging from 4% to 99.9%.
Wheat: Wheat is a widely traded commodity across 183 countries. Among them, 26 countries serve as net exporters, meeting 100% of the consumption needs for 63 other countries. The remaining countries exhibit varying degrees of dependence on wheat imports, ranging from 4% to 99.9%.
Maize: Maize is traded in 168 countries, with notable import reliance in the Middle East, West South America, North Europe, and parts of South Africa. Of these, 18% of countries are responsible for meeting the needs of the rest of the world.
Rice: Rice is heavily imported in numerous regions, including Europe, Africa, Canada, and Australia. Among 159 countries that import rice, 45% of them are entirely dependent on imports for their rice supply.
Sorghum: Sorghum is primarily imported in China, Canada, Central Asia, and parts of Europe. Seventeen countries exhibit 100% reliance on sorghum imports.
Vegetable Oil: Central and South Asia, the Middle East, many African countries, and parts of West South America significantly rely on vegetable oil imports. A total of 25 countries imports 100% of their vegetable oil needs.
Cassava: Cassava is a key imported commodity in North America, Asia, Europe, and Australia. Forty countries entirely depend on cassava imports.
Yam: Twenty-two countries import yams, with 21 of them being 100% reliant on imports. In contrast, 10 countries are net exporters of yams.
Millet: Millet is imported in 53 countries, with 33 of them being entirely dependent on imports. Seventeen countries are net exporters of millet.
Plantain: Among the 64 countries that import plantains, 59 rely on imports for 100% of their needs. Thirteen countries, including Ecuador and Myanmar, serve as notable net exporters of plantains.

The import dependency ratio is based on data on imports, exports, and domestic supply quantity from the FAO Food Balance Sheet. Domestic supply quantity is calculated by the FAO as production plus net imports plus net reductions in stocks minus losses. The data are available annually for 183 countries. We use data for 2020, the most recent available, and 15 staple foods: wheat, rice, maize, sorghum, millet, cassava, sweet potatoes, yams, plantains, beans, groundnuts, soybeans, sugar, and vegetable oil. In the FAO database, the cereals, cassava, and potatoes include products made from the staple crop such as wheat bread and maize flour. Vegetable oil is an aggregated category that includes 13 types of oil in the original FAO database.
The import dependency ratio is calculated as follows:

For net importers, the import dependency ratio is positive, while for net exporters, the import dependency ratio is negative. In a few cases, the net imports were greater than the domestic supply quantity, which appears to reflect data errors. In these cases, we set the import dependency ratio at 100 percent.

Data source for this analysis

The contribution of each commodity to the caloric intake in each country is calculated using the Food Balance Sheets calculated by the Food and Agriculture Organization . These data are available on an annual basis for 182 countries. The most recent data are for 2020. We calculate the total caloric intake and then the contribution of four commodities: wheat, maize, rice, and sorghum. In each case, the commodities include calories consumed from grain products. For example, “wheat and products” includes consumption of wheat, flour, bread, and other wheat products.

3. Prevalence of food insecurity

Overview

This map provides a visual representation of the share of the population experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity in various countries. The data indicates that a significant number of countries in Africa exhibit a very high population share experiencing food insecurity. South Asia, Central and South America follow closely in the number of countries with high food insecurity rates.

Proposed methodology for this analysis

The data on moderate and food insecurity (MFI) are obtained from the FAO Suite of Food Security Indicators. These data are based on household surveys using the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES). For 2020, estimates of MFI are available for about 142 countries, leaving 40 countries for which we have data on caloric intake and net imports but not food insecurity. To fill this gap, we use interpolated values based on regression estimates of moderate and severe food insecurity as a function of per capita gross domestic product, the FAO Prevalence of Undernourishment, the Gini coefficient, and

Data source for this analysis

These data are based on household surveys using the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES). To fill this gap, we use interpolated values based on regression estimates of moderate and severe food insecurity as a function of per capita gross domestic product, the FAO Prevalence of Undernourishment, the Gini coefficient , and the headcount poverty rate.

Food Import Vulnerability Index (FIVI)

Overview

All Staples: The Food Import Vulnerability Index (FIVI) is calculated as the product of the share of commodity imports, the share of caloric food intake for each commodity, and is weighted for the prevalence of food insecurity. Considering all nine commodities together, Yemen, Eswatini, and Haiti represent the most vulnerable countries with index values of 84, 77, and 74, respectively. These products cover at least two-thirds of each country's calorific needs and more than 80% of their energy is supplied by imports. In contrast, Argentina, Kazakhstan, and Russia stand out as the least vulnerable countries.
Wheat: Yemen remains the most vulnerable country regarding wheat, with an index value of 70, followed by Afghanistan and Djibouti with values of 54. Importance of wheat in Yemen's caloric needs (46%) and its status as a near-net importer explains this ranking.
Maize: Due to a high dependence on imports (with a rate of more than 70%) Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and Eswatini are the most vulnerable countries regarding maize price hikes.
Rice: The most vulnerable countries regarding rice are Liberia, Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau, with index values of 61, 59, and 59, respectively.
Sorghum: South Sudan, Rwanda, and Eswatini represent the most vulnerable countries to sorghum price increases.
Vegetable Oil: Congo, Zimbabwe, and Yemen are identified as the most vulnerable countries despite the relatively small share of caloric intake from vegetable oil in their diets.
Cassava: Given the small share of cassava in caloric intake, only Rwanda and Laos have FIVI values higher than 20, reflecting lower vulnerability to price shocks for cassava worldwide.
Yam: Sixteen countries are identified as vulnerable to yam price increases, with small index values ranging from 0.5 to 5.2.
Millet: Nineteen countries are marked as vulnerable to millet price increases, with index values ranging from 1.7 to 8.5, reflecting a low caloric share and limited trade for millet.
Plantains: The number of vulnerable countries to plantain price rises reaches 48, with index values ranging from 0.5 to 15.5, highlighting a low degree of vulnerability.

Proposed methodology for this analysis

We propose an index of vulnerability to international food price increases that has three components:
  • the share of calories that the food commodity represents in the national diet,
  • the share of national consumption of the commodity that comes from imports, and
  • the share of the population that is food insecure
Furthermore, we propose that the food import vulnerability (FIV) index be calculated at the country-commodity level using the following expression:
The rational for using a multiplicative index is that the vulnerability should be zero if a) the commodity does not play a role in the local diet, b) domestic consumption is based entirely on domestic production without relying on imports, or c) there is no food insecurity in the country. The base index uses equal weights for the three components, but we carry out sensitivity analysis to determine whether the index and rankings are affected by applying different weights to the three components.
For the national food import vulnerability index (FIVI), we use the following equation:

The first term in parentheses is the weighted average of the import dependence ratio (Mic/Qic) across the 15 staple commodities, where the weights are the caloric contribution of each commodity to total staple calories in that country (Cic/ΣCic). The weighted average of the import shares for each commodity is equal to the share of the calories from the 15 staple foods that are imported. The second term is the share of the population that is moderately or severely food insecure (MFIc).
The national FIVI will be low if imports represent a small share of the calories consumed from the 15 staple foods or the share of the population experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity is low. Conversely, the national FIVI will be high if a large share of the calories consumed of the 15 staple foods are imported and a large proportion of the population faces moderate or severe food insecurity.

Data source for this analysis

The contribution of each commodity to the caloric intake in each country is calculated using the Food Balance Sheets calculated by the Food and Agriculture Organization . These data are available on an annual basis for 182 countries. The most recent data are for 2020. We calculate the total caloric intake and then the contribution of four commodities: wheat, maize, rice, and sorghum. In each case, the commodities include calories consumed from grain products. For example, “wheat and products” includes consumption of wheat, flour, bread, and other wheat products.

The previous version

The previous tool effectively served to identify early on exposure to the shocks to global food and fertilizer markets caused by the war in Ukraine that started in February 2022. 
Please explore the previous version of the Vulnerability to Global Food Price Shocks V.1: Wheat and Fertilizer Import Dependence tool by clicking the link below

Vulnerability to Global Food Price Shocks V.1: Wheat and Fertilizer Import Depe…