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Last update: April 07, 2026
The recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a critical disruption in global trade, halting nearly all maritime traffic through one of the world’s most essential waterways. In addition to compromising food security for import-dependent Gulf nations, the crisis risks affecting food security more broadly and is a situation we are monitoring. The situation has triggered a sharp rise in energy costs, with crude oil and natural gas prices reaching levels not seen in several years and driving up fertilizer prices. The economic impact could be particularly acute because the region serves as a primary hub for roughly one-third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer and essential chemical inputs.
The latest analysis is summarized in our blogs and the key indicators we are tracking are below.
[Blog] Will the Iran crisis lead to another round of food price spikes?
Agricultural commodity prices have been under sustained downward pressure since 2013–14. The 2022 spike in the wake of COVID-19 disruptions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine proved temporary rather than cyclical. Now, the Strait of Hormuz closure amid the Iran war has produced a sharp run-up in fertilizer prices, raising agricultural production costs. Yet thus far, global commodities markets have not spiked. More than a month into the crisis, urea prices are up roughly 40%, while wheat and maize prices have increased by about 6% and soybeans less than 3%). Rice prices have fallen over the period.
Are we at the beginning of another period of high food prices? The short answer, in our assessment, is probably not—at least not yet. The conditions that drove prior price spikes are largely absent today, and the Hormuz disruption is a fundamentally different kind of shock than either the 2007-2008 food price crisis or 2022. The Hormuz disruption is a fertilizer supply shock, not a crop supply shock, and that distinction matters both in price formation and appropriate policy responses.
Excessive Food Price Volatility Early Warning System
The system monitors excessive volatility in food and fertilizer prices, identifying abnormal fluctuations to provide early warnings that support timely food-security responses.
Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker
The tracker monitors global food and fertilizer export restrictions, showing their impacts on imported calories and comparing current trends to past crises.
Fertilizer Market Dashboard
The dashboard tracks global fertilizer market trends, price drivers, trade, and production, helping users monitor risks and understand impacts on food systems.
Food Price Monitor
The dashboard tracks international and domestic food prices and key determinants, enabling users to monitor trends, volatility, and drivers of price changes.