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Last update: May 26, 2026
The recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a critical disruption in global trade, halting nearly all maritime traffic through one of the world’s most essential waterways. In addition to compromising food security for import-dependent Gulf nations, the crisis risks affecting food security more broadly and is a situation we are monitoring. The situation has triggered a sharp rise in energy costs, with crude oil and natural gas prices reaching levels not seen in several years and driving up fertilizer prices. The economic impact could be particularly acute because the region serves as a primary hub for roughly one-third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer and essential chemical inputs.
The latest analysis is summarized in our blogs and the key indicators we are tracking are below.
[Blog] How fertilizer policies could exacerbate Hormuz price shocks
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the outbreak of the Iran war on February 28, 2026, put roughly one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade at risk. Suddenly, production across the broader Persian Gulf region had no clear ocean exit.
An earlier blog post by Arita and Glauber described the Hormuz disruption as a fertilizer supply shock that would likely have limited impacts on grain markets and food prices more broadly. This is a different kind of shock than the last one, triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, which disrupted fertilizer supplies while food prices were considerably higher than today. This post further explores the nature of the current shock, employing an economic model to quantify and compare impacts of various supply- and demand-side policies across key fertilizer exporting countries beyond the Persian Gulf and major importing countries—finding that these can have significant impacts of fertilizer prices.
Excessive Food Price Volatility Early Warning System
The system monitors excessive volatility in food and fertilizer prices, identifying abnormal fluctuations to provide early warnings that support timely food-security responses.
Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker
The tracker monitors global food and fertilizer export restrictions, showing their impacts on imported calories and comparing current trends to past crises.
Fertilizer Market Dashboard
The dashboard tracks global fertilizer market trends, price drivers, trade, and production, helping users monitor risks and understand impacts on food systems.
Food Price Monitor
The dashboard tracks international and domestic food prices and key determinants, enabling users to monitor trends, volatility, and drivers of price changes.