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Last update: May 06, 2026
The recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a critical disruption in global trade, halting nearly all maritime traffic through one of the world’s most essential waterways. In addition to compromising food security for import-dependent Gulf nations, the crisis risks affecting food security more broadly and is a situation we are monitoring. The situation has triggered a sharp rise in energy costs, with crude oil and natural gas prices reaching levels not seen in several years and driving up fertilizer prices. The economic impact could be particularly acute because the region serves as a primary hub for roughly one-third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer and essential chemical inputs.
The latest analysis is summarized in our blogs and the key indicators we are tracking are below.
[Blog] The Iran war: Farmers in Brazil and Argentina face rising fertilizer and energy prices
The blog post examines the impact of the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure on two major food-exporting countries, Argentina and Brazil. They account for 10% of wheat, 39% of maize, and 66% of soybean exports in the world. Both countries also depend heavily on fertilizer imports, a significant portion of which come from the Persian Gulf region. A continued disruption in fertilizer markets could affect producer planting decisions and fertilizer application rates, which could, in turn, affect production and commodity prices.
Excessive Food Price Volatility Early Warning System
The system monitors excessive volatility in food and fertilizer prices, identifying abnormal fluctuations to provide early warnings that support timely food-security responses.
Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker
The tracker monitors global food and fertilizer export restrictions, showing their impacts on imported calories and comparing current trends to past crises.
Fertilizer Market Dashboard
The dashboard tracks global fertilizer market trends, price drivers, trade, and production, helping users monitor risks and understand impacts on food systems.
Food Price Monitor
The dashboard tracks international and domestic food prices and key determinants, enabling users to monitor trends, volatility, and drivers of price changes.