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Between October and November 2024, about 1.59 million Lebanese, Syrian refugees, and Palestine refugees (29 percent of the total population analysed) experienced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). Among them, about 205,000 people (4 percent of the population analysed) experienced IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 1.4 million people (25 percent of the population analysed) experienced IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). These results show an increase compared to the 1.26 million people in Phase 3 or above estimated for the April-September 2024 period by the IPC analysis projection update conducted in March 2024. The significant deterioration of more than 300,000 people in Phase 3 or above is mainly attributed to the compounded impact of conflict and large displacement on aggregate sectors of Lebanese economy such as trade and tourism, which further aggravated the deep economic crisis of the recent years.

For the current period of analysis (October to November 2024), the details of the population analysed showed that a total of 928,000 Lebanese residents (24 percent of the resident population), 579,000 Syrian refugees (38 percent of the total Syrian refugee population in Lebanon), and 84,000 Palestinian refugees (40 percent of the total Palestinian refugee population in Lebanon) experienced Phase 3 or above.

Between December 2024 and March 2025, a slight deterioration of the food security situation is expected with about 1.65 million people (30 percent of the analysed population) likely to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). A total of 201,000 individuals (4 percent) are likely to experience Phase 4, and 1.45 million people (26 percent) are likely to experience Phase 3. Among them, 970,000 Lebanese residents (25 percent of the resident population), 594,000 Syrian refugees (39 percent of the total Syrian refugee population in Lebanon), and 89,000 Palestinian refugees (40 percent of the total Palestinian refugee population in Lebanon) are likely to experience Phase 3 or above. These populations require urgent humanitarian action to reduce food gaps, protect and restore livelihoods and prevent acute malnutrition.

Between January and March 2025, which coincides with the harvest period, nearly 1.2 million people (10 percent of the total population analysed) are projected to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). This is a marked improvement from the current period (November to December 2024), where 1.9 million people were classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse).

The improvement is likely a result of the expected favourable agricultural performance and abundant rainfall, as well as the increase in household food stocks, even if during this period, the prices of manufactured products are expected to remain higher than average due to the high cost transportation.

Nearly 3.5 million children, aged 6 to 59 months, are suffering or projected to suffer acute malnutrition between June 2024 and May 2025 and require urgent interventions. This includes 867,300 cases of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and almost 2.6 million cases of moderate acute malnutrition (MAM). Additionally, 1.2 million pregnant and breastfeeding women (PBW) are expected to suffer acute malnutrition in the same period. Regarding the severity of acute malnutrition, between June and October 2024, a period considered to be current and reflecting conditions when data was collected, four provinces were classified in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical) including Helmand, Kandahar, Nuristan, and Paktika. Moreover, 24 provinces were classified in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious) including Kabul, Kapisa, Parwan, Logar, Panjsher, Ghazni, Paktya, Khost, Daykundi, Badakhshan, Takhar, Kunduz, Sar-e-Pul, Jawzjan, Faryab, Nangarhar, Kunar, Ghor, Badghis, Hirat, Farah, Nimroz, Uruzgan and Zabul. The remaining six provinces were classified in IPC Phase 2 (Alert). In the Projection period, the overall situation is expected to largely stay the same till May 2025 with only one province (Balkh) expected to worsen from Phase 2 to Phase 3 and one province (Khost) expected to improve from Phase 3 to Phase 2.

Approximately 357,900 children aged 6 and 59 months are suffering or expected
to suffer acute malnutrition between September 2024 and August 2025, with
almost 51 percent (182,700) of cases expected in the Grand Sud-Est and 49
percent (175,200) in the Grand Sud. Of that total, 83,400 children are likely to
suffer Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) and 274,500 are likely to suffer Moderate
Acute Malnutrition (MAM). The highest caseload of children suffering SAM is in
the Grand Sud-Est region (60 percent), compared to 40 percent in the Grand Sud.
In the first projection period (January – April 2025), the most affected districts in IPC
AMN Phase 3 or above (Critical or worse) will be Nosy Varika, Ifanadiana, Mananjary,
Ikongo, Manakara, Vondrozo, Farafangana and Befotaka for the Grand Sud-Est, and
Amboasary for the Grand Sud.
The nutrition situation is projected to improve slightly in the second projection period
(May – August 2025). Only two districts will remain in Phase 3, namely Farafangana
and Amboasary, while three districts will be in IPC AMN Phase 1 (Acceptable): Toliara
II, Taolagnaro and Vohipeno. The other districts will remain in IPC AMN Phase 2 (Alert).
While there has been a slight improvement in the nutritional situation compared with
previous years in the Grand Sud and Grand Sud-Est, the population’s diet remains
insufficient, both in quality and quantity, and dietary practices remain inadequate.
Reduced access to latrines and insufficient hygiene practices as well as reduced access
to health services are also contributing factors to the acute malnutrition situation.
Access to drinking water and sanitation services also remains a major problem with
open defecation a widespread practice. Childhood illnesses are another contributing
factor, with diarrhea and Acute Respiratory Infections (AFI) highly prevalent in both
regions. Low vaccination coverage also exposes children to infectious diseases
that compromise their nutritional status. Vaccination coverage varies between 28
and 76 percent in Grand Sud, and between 32 and 77 percent in Grand Sud-Est.