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Between October 2024 and March 2025, 1.98 million people are projected to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). Of that total, 212,000 are likely to experience IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 1.7 million people are likely to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

This marks a stark deterioration from the current period (August to September 2024), where 1.49 million people were classified in IPC Phase 3 or above. There were 46,000 people classified in Phase 4 and 1.4 million people were in Phase 3. The increase of people classified in Phase 4 is particularly concerning. Emphasis is on the districts that are projected to move from IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) to IPC Phase 3 or above (Balama, Montepuez, Namuno in Cabo Delgado, Mandimbaand Marrupa in Niassa, Chibabava in Sofala and KaMubucuana and KaMavota in the City of Maputo).

The key drivers of the acute food insecurity situation include the El Niño-induced drought which significantly affected the 2023/24 rainy and agricultural season in a large part of the country – particularly the central region. The southern region recorded heavy rains in March associated with tropical storm Filipo which affected 130,000 people.

The presence of government and local forces have helped maintain relative stability in Cabo Delgado province in recent months. However, small, scattered groups of armed actors continue to operate in several locations in Cabo Delgado, including Chiúre, Metuge, Quissanga, Ancuabe, Mocímboa da Praia, Macomia and Mecufi, leading to continued tension and fear of new attacks.

Between October and November 2024, about 1.59 million Lebanese, Syrian refugees, and Palestine refugees (29 percent of the total population analysed) experienced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). Among them, about 205,000 people (4 percent of the population analysed) experienced IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 1.4 million people (25 percent of the population analysed) experienced IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). These results show an increase compared to the 1.26 million people in Phase 3 or above estimated for the April-September 2024 period by the IPC analysis projection update conducted in March 2024. The significant deterioration of more than 300,000 people in Phase 3 or above is mainly attributed to the compounded impact of conflict and large displacement on aggregate sectors of Lebanese economy such as trade and tourism, which further aggravated the deep economic crisis of the recent years.

For the current period of analysis (October to November 2024), the details of the population analysed showed that a total of 928,000 Lebanese residents (24 percent of the resident population), 579,000 Syrian refugees (38 percent of the total Syrian refugee population in Lebanon), and 84,000 Palestinian refugees (40 percent of the total Palestinian refugee population in Lebanon) experienced Phase 3 or above.

Between December 2024 and March 2025, a slight deterioration of the food security situation is expected with about 1.65 million people (30 percent of the analysed population) likely to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). A total of 201,000 individuals (4 percent) are likely to experience Phase 4, and 1.45 million people (26 percent) are likely to experience Phase 3. Among them, 970,000 Lebanese residents (25 percent of the resident population), 594,000 Syrian refugees (39 percent of the total Syrian refugee population in Lebanon), and 89,000 Palestinian refugees (40 percent of the total Palestinian refugee population in Lebanon) are likely to experience Phase 3 or above. These populations require urgent humanitarian action to reduce food gaps, protect and restore livelihoods and prevent acute malnutrition.

Between January and March 2025, which coincides with the harvest period, nearly 1.2 million people (10 percent of the total population analysed) are projected to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). This is a marked improvement from the current period (November to December 2024), where 1.9 million people were classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse).

The improvement is likely a result of the expected favourable agricultural performance and abundant rainfall, as well as the increase in household food stocks, even if during this period, the prices of manufactured products are expected to remain higher than average due to the high cost transportation.

Nearly 3.5 million children, aged 6 to 59 months, are suffering or projected to suffer acute malnutrition between June 2024 and May 2025 and require urgent interventions. This includes 867,300 cases of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and almost 2.6 million cases of moderate acute malnutrition (MAM). Additionally, 1.2 million pregnant and breastfeeding women (PBW) are expected to suffer acute malnutrition in the same period. Regarding the severity of acute malnutrition, between June and October 2024, a period considered to be current and reflecting conditions when data was collected, four provinces were classified in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical) including Helmand, Kandahar, Nuristan, and Paktika. Moreover, 24 provinces were classified in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious) including Kabul, Kapisa, Parwan, Logar, Panjsher, Ghazni, Paktya, Khost, Daykundi, Badakhshan, Takhar, Kunduz, Sar-e-Pul, Jawzjan, Faryab, Nangarhar, Kunar, Ghor, Badghis, Hirat, Farah, Nimroz, Uruzgan and Zabul. The remaining six provinces were classified in IPC Phase 2 (Alert). In the Projection period, the overall situation is expected to largely stay the same till May 2025 with only one province (Balkh) expected to worsen from Phase 2 to Phase 3 and one province (Khost) expected to improve from Phase 3 to Phase 2.