Approximately 1.4 million people—equivalent to 13 percent of the analysed population—experienced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between November and March 2026, including over 35,000 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) nationwide. Food insecurity was primarily driven by high food prices, limited household food reserves, and irregular rainfall patterns.
In the first projection period (April to July 2026), the situation is expected to deteriorate, with around 1.8 million people (18 percent of the analysed population) projected to face IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse), including approximately 95,000 people in IPC Phase 4. This increase is consistent with seasonal patterns of acute food insecurity, driven by the depletion of household food stocks and increased reliance on market purchases during the lean season, alongside continued high food prices and rising production costs.