This projection update on the food security situation in the Tri-National Border Region of the Río Lempa (MTFRL)—located within the Central American Dry Corridor—revises the earlier projections for the periods July to October 2026 and November 2026 to March 2027 across the four micro-regions, indicating a deterioration across both periods. The update was undertaken to assess the impact of several worsening factors, including the effects of El Niño, crop losses, the depletion of food reserves, sustained price increases, and declining household incomes.

Afghanistan continues to face severe acute food insecurity, with 15.9 million people (32 percent of the population) facing IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between September and October 2026, including 3.4 million people experiencing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions.
Economic pressures—weak purchasing power, unemployment, inflation, rising input costs due to the Middle East conflict, cross-border tensions with Pakistan, trade disruptions, and large-scale returns—continue to strain large segments of the Afghan population. Although improved rainfall and better agricultural production have supported food availability, declining humanitarian assistance is eroding households’ ability to cope.

Nutrition data from SMART surveys conducted since January 2026 recorded Critical levels of acute malnutrition across much of Greater Darfur. New evidence points to a sharp increase in severe acute malnutrition admissions in South Darfur and North Darfur, including in several areas previously identified as at risk of Famine in the May 2026 IPC acute food insecurity analysis. Across Greater Kordofan, ongoing conflict, mass displacement, poor rainfall, and restricted livelihood opportunities are further worsening food security and reducing harvest prospects.

Urgent action is needed in Somalia, which continues to face a volatile food and nutrition crisis and a risk of Famine. Nearly 5.1 million people are facing high levels of acute food insecurity from July to September 2026—a 50 percent increase compared with the same period in 2025. Drought, erratic rainfall, insecurity, high food prices and expected El Niño impacts continue to drive food insecurity as humanitarian funding declines.

This projection update on the food security situation in Honduras revises the earlier projection for the period from August to October 2026, covering all 18 departments and the Central District. The update was undertaken to assess the impact of several worsening factors, including the effects of El Niño, crop losses, the depletion of food reserves, sustained increases in prices, and declining household incomes.

In Kenya’s arid and semiarid lands (ASALs), around 2.7 million people are experiencing IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) acute food insecurity, with 348,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), between July and October 2026. This marks a 55 percent increase from the previous analysis and exceeds earlier projections. The deterioration reflects erratic rainfall, slow livelihood recovery, persistent vulnerabilities, and insufficient humanitarian food security assistance (HFSA).

Between July and September 2026 in 46 predominantly productive districts of Mozambique, an estimated 1.19 million people are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) and require urgent humanitarian assistance to reduce food consumption gaps and protect livelihoods. Of these, approximately 81,000 people are classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), while approximaltey 1.1 million people are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The current situation is driven by multiple shocks earlier in the year: flooding and Cyclone Gezani damaged crops, livestock and seasonal food sources, while prolonged heat limited agricultural recovery and reduced pasture and water availability.

Across much of Uganda, El Niño-induced dry spells led to extreme crop and pasture losses, which, alongside rising food prices, has greatly reduced food affordability and access. This is driving high levels of acute food insecurity and malnutrition in the Karamoja region and among vulnerable populations, including refugees and host communities, in other parts of the country. Low crop and livestock production, limited income, and high prices are reducing purchasing power and increasing households’ reliance on markets and external food assistance. Limited income opportunities and localised conflicts, particularly in Karamoja, also restrict food access. At the same time, reduced humanitarian assistance levels are diminishing vulnerable households’ capacity to cope with these conditions.

Approximately 698,000 people in Zambia are facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) from April to September 2026, representing a significant improvement compared to the same period in 2025.
Acute food insecurity is expected to deteriorate between October 2026 and March 2027 during the lean season. Over 1.2 million people will likely experience Phase 3 or above conditions during this period.
The underlying drivers of food insecurity in Zambia remain largely structural, largely driven by high poverty levels, especially in rural areas. Other compounding factors consist of persistent climatic shocks, including anticipated El Niño conditions, as well as crop pests and diseases and macroeconomic instability.

An estimated 1.9 million people in Malawi (10 percent of the analysed population) are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of acute food insecurity between April and September 2026, marking a notable improvement compared with the previous two years. This progress reflects a favourable 2025/26 agricultural season following the severe El Niño impacts of 2024/25.
Despite improved production, household purchasing power continues to be eroded by high food prices, elevated inflation, sharp fuel price adjustments, foreign-exchange shortages, and high premiums on the parallel exchange market—particularly affecting poor households in urban areas and low-income rural households.