FAO Food Price Index Declines for Third Consecutive Month

The FAO Food Price Index fell for the third month in a row in November, declining by 1.2 percent. Prices declined for all commodities except cereals. The Index in November stood 2.1 percent below its year-earlier level and nearly 22 percent below the peak of March 2022.

The Cereal Price Index was the exception in November, increasing by 1.8 percent. Wheat prices rose by 2.5 percent due to continuing concerns over disruptions in the Black Sea region, forecast lower planting in Russia, and increased demand from China. Maize prices rose based on increased demand and concerns over weather conditions in South America. Rice prices, alternatively, fell slightly due to lower import demand and ample harvests.

The Vegetable Oil Price Index fell by 2.6 percent in November, hitting its lowest point since June. Declining crude oil prices played a significant role in the overall decline in prices. Palm oil, rapeseed oil, and sunflower oil prices were driven down by increased production. Soy oil, on the other hand, rose marginally due to strong demand for biofuel production.

 The Meat, Dairy, and Sugar Price Indices all fell in November, by 0.8, 3.1, and 5.9 percent, respectively.

The latest AMIS Market Monitor reports mixed annual price movements but generally ample global supplies going into the end of 2025. Uncertainties over trade policies and disparities between fertilizer prices and crop prices continue to be a concern for global markets, however. The report calls for improved data transparency, market-based pricing mechanisms, and technological innovation, and market diversification to establish a more stable global food system in 2026.

Sara Gustafson is a freelance writer.

Wheat production forecasts for 2025 rose in November due to record harvests in Argentina. Wheat utilization forecasts remained stable, with an expected annual increase of 1.1 percent due to increased feed use. Wheat trade forecasts also increased slightly due to the Argentinian supplies, while global wheat ending stocks are expected to increase from 2024-2025.

Maize production forecasts for 2025 remained stable in November, while utilization prospects fell slightly due to reduced utilization by Brazil and the European Union. Maize trade is still forecast up from 2024-2025. Global maize ending stocks are expected to rise in 2025.

Rice production prospects rose in November due to an increase in planted area in Indonesia and improved crop expectations in Bangladesh and Japan. Rice utilization forecasts also increased, with overall use growing at the fastest rate seen in four seasons. Rice trade is expected to be lower than 2025 levels due to reduced imports, while global rice ending stocks are expected to exceed their record opening level.

Soybean production prospects fell in November based on lower expected harvests in the United States. Utilization is still forecast to be around 4 percent higher than 2024-2025. Soybean trade forecasts increased slightly in November due to expected increased exports from South America and imports by China. Global soybean ending stocks also increased slightly due to the forecast rising inventory in China.

The removal of tariffs by the United States and changes in China’s export policy contributed to driving fertilizer prices down slightly in November. However, prices remain historically high and continue to reduce overall demand. Natural gas prices remained stable in Europe but rose in the United States, and ammonia prices remained high due to continuing limited supplies. Nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer prices declined overall in November as a result of weak demand, while potash prices remained stable.