Market Structure

First in a blog series examining the potential consequences of the newly proposed U.S. tariffs for global agrifood trade.

Fertilizer prices experienced a significant surge in 2021, driven by the post-COVID 19 global economic recovery. Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine propelled prices even higher. Broad economic sanctions on key fertilizer exporters Russia and Belarus exempted agricultural products but triggered further economic disruptions. Overall, the conflict heightened market uncertainties regarding the availability of potash, phosphate, and nitrogen-based fertilizers in international trade.

Rising vegetable oil, cereal, sugar, and dairy prices drove the FAO Food Price Index up by 1.6 percent in February. However, overall prices remain almost 21 percent lower than the peak seen in March 2022.

With new U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico now in effect, what are the potential impacts on trade among those countries and across the Western Hemisphere?

In 2024, the FAO Food Price Index was 2.1 percent lower than its 2023 average. While the December 2024 Index was higher than its December 2023 value, it also remained well below the peak prices seen in March 2022.