Poor rainfall, flooding and persistent conflict are driving 3.4 million people into high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) across much of Somalia. Between July and September 2025, around 624,000 people (3 percent of the population) have been experiencing Emergency levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 4), while more than 2.8 million people (15 percent of the population) have been experiencing IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).
In northern regions, poor rainfall and drought conditions led to failed crop production and poor livestock production and reproduction. In central and southern Somalia, conflict and flooding hampered crop production in agropastoral and riverine livelihoods leading to population displacement, disrupting livelihood activities and market access.
In the projection period (October to December 2025), the food security situation is expected to worsen as the Deyr season rainfall is likely to be below normal. Below-average rainfall, high food prices, continued conflict, and localised flooding are projected to drive 4.4 million people (23 percent of the population) into high levels of acute food insecurity (Phase 3 or above). During this period, the food security situation of urban IDPs in Bay and Bakool is expected to deteriorate from Phase 3to Phase 4. Among urban populations in Nugaal (Burtinle and Eyl), the food security situation is likely to deteriorate from IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) to Phase 3.

An estimated 1.85 million children aged 6 – 59 months are expected to suffer acute malnutrition and need urgent treatment between August 2025 and July 2026. This includes approximately 421,000 cases of children likely to suffer Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM), and 1.43 million children likely to suffer Moderate Acute Malnutrition (MAM). Notably, around 65 percent of the total acute malnutrition burden is concentrated in southern Somalia. Compared to the same season last year, the expected burden represents a 12 and 5 percent increase for GAM and SAM respectively.

Regarding the severity of the acute malnutrition situation, between June and September 2025, out of the 47 analysed areas, 18 are classified in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical). These include IDPs in Bossaso (Bari), Galkacyo (Mudug), Mogadishu (Banadir), Baidoa (Bay), Kismayo (Lower Juba), Dhusa Mareeb (Galgadud). Urban populations in Bossaso, Dhusaareb and Beled eyne towns are also classified in IPC AMN Phase 4 as well as some rural areas of Beled Weyne rural (riverine and agropastoral), Shabelle riverine, Shabelle agropastoral, Bay agropastoral, West Golis pastoral and Hawd pastoral of Central regions, all of which were assessed based on Weight-for-Height z-scores.

Uganda is facing a significant refugee crisis, hosting over 1.9 million refugees—the largest number in Africa and the sixth largest globally. In the 13 refugee settlements assessed, as well as in Kampala, approximately 712,000 people (37 percent of the analysed population) are expected to be experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity between August 2025 and February 2026. This includes 16,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 696,000 people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).
This marks a notable improvement compared to the previous period (June–July 2025), when 920,000 people (48 percent of the analysed population) were facing high levels of acute food insecurity. The anticipated improvement is largely attributed to expected increases in crop yields from enhanced agricultural production. In addition, food prices are forecasted to decline with higher production, improving household food availability and access.

The IPC Acute Malnutrition (AMN) analysis of Uganda’s refugee settlements and Kampala’s urban refugees found that approximately 56,681 children aged 6–59 months and 6,827 pregnant or breastfeeding women (PBW) are suffering or projected to suffer from acute malnutrition between April 2025 and March 2026. The situation between April and September 2025 was significantly worse compared to the same period in 2024.
Three refugee settlements—Adjumani, Bidibidi, and Palorinya—were classified in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious). Six settlements (Imvepi, Kiryandongo, Lobule, Oruchiga, Palabek, and Rhino Camp) along with Kampala’s urban refugees were classified in IPC AMN Phase 2 (Alert). The remaining four settlements—Kyaka II, Kyangwali, Nakivale, and Rwamwanja—were classified in IPC AMN Phase 1 (Acceptable).

Between May and August 2025, an estimated 3.4 million people—equivalent to 19 percent of Guatemala’s population—faced high levels of Acute Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This figure represents around 400,000 more people compared to the same period in 2024. Eleven of the 22 departments analysed were classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis), notably Alta Verapaz, Huehuetenango and Quiché.
For the first projection period, September 2025 to January 2026, a relative improvement is expected, with around 2.6 million people (14 percent of the population analysed) in IPC Phase 3 or above. This includes 2.4 million in Phase 3 (Crisis) and 185,000 in Phase 4 (Emergency). This represents a 5 percent reduction compared with the previous period, attributed to improved food availability in some areas.
However, for the second projection period, February to April 2026, a deterioration is anticipated, with about 3 million people (16 percent of the population analysed) in IPC Phase 3 or above. Of this total, around 2.8 million would remain in Phase 3 (Crisis) and more than 248,000 in Phase 4 (Emergency), reflecting the persistence of structural factors that continue to undermine food security.

Malnutrition remains a concern in certain parts of the country, with approximately 114,278 children aged 6-59 months, as well as 23,151 pregnant and breastfeeding women (PBW), suffering or expected to suffer from acute malnutrition through March 2026. Regarding the severity of the situation, from April to September 2025, the Mopeia district in Zambézia province is classified in IPC Acute Malnutrition (AMN) Phase 3 (Severe). Six other districts—Derre (Zambézia), Mutarara (Tete), Macossa (Manica), Mossuril and Angoche (Nampula), and Muanza (Sofala)—are classified in IPC AMN Phase 2 (Alert).
Between October 2025 and March 2026, the nutritional situation is projected to deteriorate across the majority of districts. This decline is expected to be driven by the depletion of household food reserves, limited access to safe drinking water, and inadequate coverage of essential health and sanitation services. These factors collectively heighten the risk of malnutrition, particularly among vulnerable populations.

Between May 2025 and April 2026, the acute malnutrition situation in Grand Sud and Ikongo (located in the Fitovinany Region of Grand Sud-Est) is projected to worsen significantly. An estimated 558,000 children under five are either currently suffering or at risk of suffering from acute malnutrition. Of these, approximately 155,600 are expected to face Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM), while 402,400 are likely to experience Moderate Acute Malnutrition (MAM). In addition, around 38,500 pregnant and breastfeeding women (PBW) are expected to be affected during the same period.
Amboasary and Ikongo districts are already classified as IPC AMN Phase 3 (Severe) between May and September 2025. This severity is expected to intensify, with five additional districts projected to enter Phase 3 between October 2025 and January 2026. Notably, Ikongo could escalate to IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical) during this period. By February to April 2026, Amboasary is also projected to reach Phase 4. The residual effects of harvests may temporarily obscure the full extent of the crisis between May and September, but underlying vulnerabilities persist.
Key drivers of acute malnutrition include very low food consumption, soaring food prices, limited market access, high child morbidity (notably from diarrhea and malaria), inadequate healthcare practices, and a fragile health system. These factors are compounded by climatic and socioeconomic shocks, deepening household vulnerability. Without urgent intervention, child survival is at serious risk across several districts.

Acute malnutrition remains a major concern in Kenya, especially across the arid and semi-arid regions. Acute malnutrition (AMN) remained stable in the 27 analysed areas in Kenya's arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) between April and July 2025. However, elevated levels have been detected in 15 areas, with 11 areas classified in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical), four areas classified in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious), seven areas classified in IPC AMN Phase 2 (Alert) and five areas in IPC AMN Phase 1 (Acceptable). In the projection period (August to October 2025), acute malnutrition is expected to deteriorate in eight areas, improve in three areas and remain stable in 15 areas. The number of children aged 6 to 59 months requiring treatment between April 2025 and March 2026 is estimated to be 741,883, which is a slight improvement (2.5 percent reduction) compared to 2024. Food gaps, high disease burden, limited access to health services, limited water and access to sanitation services, and reduced humanitarian funding continue to drive acute malnutrition.

Approximately 428,000 children aged 6–59 months and 84,000 pregnant or breastfeeding women are suffering or expected to suffer from acute malnutrition across 43 districts in Uganda between March 2025 to February 2026 and require urgent nutrition support or treatment. The highest is reported in Karamoja with three districts classified in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical) and four districts classified in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious).
Key factors fuelling acute malnutrition include high climate vulnerability—driven by arid to semi-arid conditions and prolonged dry spells that restrict access to reliable and sufficient water—intersects with poor agro-ecological potential, including marginal pastoral and agricultural zones characterized by rocky, infertile soils. Livelihoods are predominantly pastoralist, supplemented by limited single-season crop farming, but remain constrained by low dietary diversity and recurring seasonal food insecurity.

Approximately 2.09 million people are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between April and September 2025, with 143,000 people experiencing Emergency levels (IPC Phase 4), characterised by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. The remaining 1.95 million people are experiencing IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) conditions.
The key drivers of the situation include climatic shocks—drought and irregular rainfall—in the southern and central areas of the country, as well as high food prices. In recent months, the northern part of the country has experienced a cessation of conflict and a degree of stabilisation, enabling the return of approximately 700,000 people. Despite this, more than 9,000 people remain internally displaced in Cabo Delgado. Displaced households and households in the process of returning to safe areas often face significant challenges, including limited access to agricultural production, livestock, and other forms of income generation. Their capacity to resume sustainable livelihoods remains severely constrained, leaving many entirely reliant on humanitarian food assistance. Meanwhile, sporadic attacks continue to occur in the districts of Macomia and Quissanga, where conflict continues to undermine security and recovery efforts.