From April to June 2026, an estimated 113,000 people (16 percent of the analysed population) in the Tri-National Border Region of the Río Lempa—which lies within the Central American Dry Corridor—are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). Of these, approximately 8,000 people are facing in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions, requiring urgent response actions. The situation is primarily driven by climatic variability, depleted food stocks and elevated food prices. The Ch’orti’ micro-region presents the most severe situation, with about 80,000 people (25 percent of its population) experiencing Crisis or worse (Phase 3 or above) conditions. Although the proportion remains stable compared with the previous year (16 percent), the total number of people affected is higher, partly due to the larger population analysed in 2026 (701,000 compared to 605,000 people).

Approximately 1.4 million people—equivalent to 13 percent of the analysed population—experienced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between November and March 2026, including over 35,000 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) nationwide. Food insecurity was primarily driven by high food prices, limited household food reserves, and irregular rainfall patterns.
In the first projection period (April to July 2026), the situation is expected to deteriorate, with around 1.8 million people (18 percent of the analysed population) projected to face IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse), including approximately 95,000 people in IPC Phase 4. This increase is consistent with seasonal patterns of acute food insecurity, driven by the depletion of household food stocks and increased reliance on market purchases during the lean season, alongside continued high food prices and rising production costs.

High food prices, rising costs of agricultural inputs, and the impact of Tropical Storm Sara contributed to approximately 1.8 million people—equivalent to 470,000 households or 18 percent of the national population—facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between December 2024 and March 2025. Of these, around 116,000 people were classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) nationwide.
In the first projected period, from April to July 2025, despite a slight improvement, the situation remains similar for an estimated 1.7 million people (17 percent of the population), who are likely to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), with at least 92,000 people expected to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). During this period, while the dry season may be stimulating tourism in some parts of the country and food inflation shows signs of stabilisation, agricultural households are anticipated to face hardship due to depleted food stocks during the lean season. Moreover, the potential suspension of projects funded by USAID may negatively impact key sectors such as education, health, and migration, further increasing the vulnerability of the population.