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Global agricultural markets have been in a constant state of uproar over the past five years. Trade wars between major trading nations such as China, the United States, and Australia, supply chain disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine, crisis in the Middle East, and export restrictions in many countries have diverted supplies, altered trading patterns, and increased price volatility, which often makes markets less efficient and more costly. 

Recurring spikes and high volatility in international food and fertilizer prices (Figure 1) have triggered economic impacts around the world over the past two decades. These major shocks include the global food price crises of 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, the market disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war. In the months after Russia’s February 2022 invasion, real global food prices reached the highest levels on record in more than six decades, while key global fertilizer prices more than doubled over those of the previous year.

Figure 1

The FAO Food Price Index declined by 1.6 percent from December. While the Index was 6.2 percent higher than its January 2024 level, it remains 22 percent below its peak of March 2022.

Fertilizer use plays an important role in increasing agricultural production and ensuring food availability and economic accessibility: two critical components of overall food security. When global fertilizer prices skyrocketed in 2021-2022, those spikes brought with them concerns about drastically reduced fertilizer application and subsequent negative impacts on food production, prices, and food security.

Much has been said and written of late about the linkages between conflict and hunger. There is good reason for this: 65% of the world’s acutely food-insecure people live in conflict-affected countries. Typically, two claims are made about the conflict-hunger linkage. First, that conflict breeds hunger.