Resources

Acute food insecurity has reached critical levels across Kenya’s 23 Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) and surrounding areas. An estimated 3.3 million people are currently classified in IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) Phase 3 or above, including 400,000 people in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency) who require immediate, life-saving assistance. This marks a 52 percent increase from early 2025 (2.15 million people) and exceeds the October 2025–January 2026 projection, which had estimated 2.12 million people in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above.
Additionally, refugee settlements in Dadaab, Kakuma, and Kalobeyei face similarly dire conditions. Approximately 429,000 people—around two-thirds of the population—are in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above, and all three settlements are in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency). This is driven by sharp reductions in humanitarian assistance, limited livelihood options, and high reliance on costly markets. Without a significant increase in food, non-food, and livelihood support, conditions are expected to remain critical.

The brief discusses best practices for the design and implementation of fertilizer subsidy programs. Careful policy design choices ensure that subsidies maximize the tangible benefits to farmers, namely yield stability and income protection, while implementing safeguards that minimize negative environmental, market, and fiscal side effects.

In February, wheat prices firmed amid adverse weather, logistics constraints, and geopolitical tensions, despite globally ample supplies. FAO’s initial forecast for 2026 points to a 3 percent production decline due to reduced sowings and a return to average yields, with cold spells in parts of Europe and dryness in North America posing additional risks. Maize prices remained broadly stable, as strong demand for US supplies offset weaker market conditions in South America. Rice prices were mostly steady amid soft import demand and improving supplies across Asia. Soybean prices rose moderately on tighter US supplies and firmer Argentine markets despite mounting trade uncertainty. Escalating conflict in the Near East could further amplify risks to global agriculture by pushing up energy and fertilizer prices, thereby increasing production and transport costs for farmers worldwide.

Acute malnutrition in Mali is expected to decline by 29 percent compared to last year, but levels remain high with 1.12 million children aged 6–59 months and 91,000 pregnant or breastfeeding women estimated to suffer from acute malnutrition between November 2025 and October 2026. This includes 227,000 cases of severe acute malnutrition (SAM)—a 46 percent reduction compared to last year, attributed to targeted response efforts in areas previously classified in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical). In the current period (November 2025–May 2026), 18 areas are classified in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious). Continued and scaled-up humanitarian assistance is crucial to prevent further deterioration and save lives.

From February–March 2026, a staggering 6.5 million people in Somalia are estimated to be facing high levels of acute food insecurity—nearly double the population classified in IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) in August 2025. This includes more than 2 million people in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency). All affected populations urgently need assistance to protect livelihoods, reduce food deficits, and save lives.
This alarming deterioration is driven by worsening drought, rising food prices, and insecurity across central, southern, and parts of northern Somalia. The situation is compounded by declining humanitarian assistance, with a 27 percent reduction in January 2026 compared to the previous year.

More than one-fifth of the analysed population in Pakistan is facing high levels of acute food insecurity due to the residual impacts of the 2025 monsoon floods, prolonged drought and dry spells, and localised insecurity. Approximately 7.5 million people (21 percent of the analysed population) are classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between December 2025 and March 2026. This includes around 1.25 million people experiencing critical levels of acute food insecurity, IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), characterised by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. Another 6.3 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) are unable to meet their essential food requirements and forced to resort to unstainable coping measures. Immediate, life-saving assistance is needed to prevent a further deterioration and to prevent affected populations—particularly those in Phase 4—from facing catastrophic conditions.

The report analyzes the evolution of weekly maize and rice prices in four East African countries - Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Rwanda - in January 2026.

The report presents price trends and movements for key food commodities, including dry beans, dry maize, rice, wheat, and Irish potatoes, for January 2026, in selected major regions and markets in Kenya.

The brief identifies which anticipatory interventions, implemented in conflict-affected contexts of Eastern and Central Africa, have empirically demonstrated the capacity to mitigate agricultural losses, sustain food production, preserve local food availability, and enhance household resilience.

Grains and oilseeds export prices edged slightly lower in January, with the IGC’s Grains and Oilseeds Index reflecting ample global supplies and year‑on‑year declines across most commodities except soybeans. Fertilizer prices continued to ease across major nutrients, although urea prices remained elevated due to rising natural gas costs.
As February 2026 begins, market fundamentals and prevailing uncertainties point to a cautiously stable outlook. Robust supplies, diversified trade flows, and adequate inventories suggest that the agrifood system can absorb moderate shocks. However, this stability should not be taken for granted. Unexpected disruptions could quickly increase volatility, underscoring the importance of open trade and greater transparency. Ongoing vigilance and sound policy choices will be essential for sustaining market stability.