Early Warning Systems Hub Alerts

Mozambique is facing high levels of acute food insecurity in the aftermath of the cyclone season, impacting 63 of the most affected districts, which represent 39 percent of the country's total.

From April to September 2024, approximately 2.79 million people are experiencing Acute Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This includes 510,000 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 2.28 million in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). An additional 3.58 million people are classified as being in Stressed conditions (IPC Phase 2).

From October 2024 to March 2025, the situation is expected to worsen, with the number of people requiring urgent assistance rising to 3.3 million. Of these, 773,000 will likely be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

This escalation is anticipated due to the depletion of food reserves, the impact of armed conflict in Cabo Delgado and parts of Nampula and Niassa, and the effects of the predicted La Niña in the southern and central regions of the country.

In FEWS NET’s drought-affected countries (excluding the DRC), needs are assessed to be 50 percent higher than the 2023/24 lean season and higher than was estimated during the peak of the last strong El Niño in 2016/17.2 Since November 2023, FEWS NET has warned that the strong El Niño event in 2023/24 would most likely result in drought-induced, below-average 2024 harvests across much of southern Africa, including in two of the region’s key suppliers, South Africa and Zambia. Indeed, a historic dry spell and above-average temperatures in early 2024 led to well below-average maize harvests across the region (Figure 1), ranging from a 10 percent deficit in South Africa to a 60 percent deficit in Zimbabwe compared to their respective five-year averages, according to national government and FEWS NET estimates. As of August, many poor households in the region have either nearly or completely exhausted their stocks from the 2024 harvest and are increasingly resorting to unsustainable coping strategies or experiencing food consumption gaps. Most of Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, southern and central Mozambique, southern Angola, and conflict-affected areas of the DRC are of highest concern. Governments, donors, humanitarian partners, and other stakeholders should rapidly mobilize now to respond to high food assistance needs through early 2025.

Prolonged dry spells, high temperatures, and economic challenges have left approximately 293,000 people in rural Lesotho (19 percent of the population) facing severe food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse, from May to September 2024. Immediate interventions are crucial to address food gaps, protect livelihoods, and prevent acute malnutrition.

The most affected districts include Maseru and Qacha’s Nek, where 30 percent of the population is in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), followed by Mohale’s Hoek and Quthing at 25 percent. The situation is expected to worsen, with around 403,000 people (27 percent of the rural population) projected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from October 2024 to March 2025, driven by ongoing price hikes and the potential impact of La Niña, while food availability remains stable but increasingly unaffordable for poorer households.

With varying degrees of certainty, climate models predict a transition to La Niña conditions during the second half of 2024, which would likely bring below-average rainfall to the eastern Horn of Africa. The greatest impacts are expected in central and southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, and the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya. Should below-average rains materialize, crop failures, deteriorating pastoral conditions, water shortages, atypical livestock movements, increased disease outbreaks, and heightened food insecurity and malnutrition are likely. Humanitarian partners should engage with local and national governments to support their contingency planning, the implementation of
preparedness activities and the identification of anticipatory actions to mitigate the impacts of potential below-average rains.

Over twelve months of warfare between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is driving a devastating
deterioration in acute food insecurity across Sudan, and parts of the country face a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5).

Millions of people are experiencing severe hunger, and available evidence suggests high and rising levels of acute malnutrition and hunger-related mortality among internally displaced populations

About 14.6 million people (20 percent of the analysed population) experienced high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between February and March 2024. An estimated 14.3 million people are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and about 0.3 million people are in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).

High inflation, coupled with repeated climatic shocks as well as reduced income opportunities are putting high pressures on the poorest households and driving acute food insecurity in the analysed population.

The food security and nutrition situation in Sudan has deteriorated significantly amidst escalating conflict, raising major concern. The IPC analysis released in December 2023 projected that, between October 2023 and February 2024, 17.7 million people in Sudan (37% of the population) faced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), of which 4.9 million (10%) were in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). The unprecedented levels of acute food insecurity recorded by the IPC in 2023 have been driven by the devastating conflict that engulfed the country.

Security threats, roadblocks and protection concerns limit both the humanitarian response and assessments. Due to data gaps in hotspot areas and connectivity challenges, the Sudan IPC Technical Working Group (TWG) has not been in a position to update the IPC analysis released in December 2023. Consequently, this alert has been developed based on the review of the latest evidence available and issued to express major concern regarding the deteriorating situation; and advocate for stakeholders to act immediately to prevent famine. Since this IPC exercise, there has been a significant escalation of the conflict among armed factions and a rise in organized violence beyond the initial IPC assumptions made in previous analyses.

The first ever IPC acute malnutrition analysis of Haiti found that nearly 277,000 children aged 6 to 59 months are facing or expected to face acute malnutrition between December 2023 and November 2024, including 125,000 children who are severely malnourished.

Of the 10 departments and municipalities that were included in the analysis, IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical) was observed in Commune of Croix de Bouquets. The municipalities of Delmas, Cabaret and Fonds Verrettes were classified in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious), while 1 department and 21 municipalities were classified in IPC AMN Phase 2 (Alert).

Despite improvements, almost 1 In 5 Somalis face high levels of acute food insecurity; 1.7 million children likely to suffer from acute malnutrition.
Heavy rainfall, flooding across Somalia, exacerbated by lingering effects of previous droughts have driven 4 million (21% of population) to IPC AFI Phase 3 or worse (Crisis or Emergency) between January and March 2024. Of these, 3.2 million people (17 percent of the population) are in IPC AFI Phase 3 (Crisis), and around 800,000 people (4 percent of the population) are experiencing worse conditions in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency).

Food assistance needs in Sudan are rapidly accelerating due to the recent expansion in fighting between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF)
and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) into the southeast. Sudan is now expected to have the third highest share of the population in need
among FEWS NET’s monitored countries in 2024. The opening of this new front is further disrupting trade and agricultural activities in
Sudan’s breadbasket, posing a significant threat to national food availability.