Resources

With northern hemisphere grain and oilseed crops largely harvested, and the Black Sea Grain Initiative extended for another 120 days, market attention is shifting to growing conditions in the southern hemisphere. The third consecutive year of La Niña has prolonged drought conditions in Argentina, resulting in sharply reduced wheat production prospects relative to last year. By contrast, La Niña has resulted in abnormally wet conditions in Australia, which expects aboveaverage wheat yields; however, concerns remain over the quality of the crop, which could impact prices for milling wheat. Planting progress for South American maize and soybeans are on pace, but it is still too early to tell whether yields will return to more normal levels after last year's drought-reduced production.

Concerns are mounting regarding the extension of the United Nations Black Sea Grain Initiative beyond the 18 November deadline, especially after Russia's recent - albeit temporary - withdrawal from the agreement. Through this initiative, Ukraine has been able to ship over 9 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds via its Black Sea ports. While the volume of exports remains below year-ago levels, importers benefitted from larger supplies, especially those who depend on Ukraine's agricultural products, while consumers worldwide have gained through lower market prices. Unfortunately, the pace of exports slowed in recent weeks as inspections could not keep up with the number of shipments; and now the possible termination of the deal threatens to re-ignite market prices and further exacerbate global food security concerns.

Annet Adong is an Agricultural/Development Economist with over 14 years of experience in conducting rigorous research in food systems, conflicts and forced displacements. Her research has for example covered topics of hidden costs in production, barriers to adoption of technologies, resilience to shocks, recovery after conflict and hidden costs in the production of coffee. With IFPRI, Annet has worked on topics such as “ The financial needs of intermediary firms” and the monthly analysis of cereal prices in Eastern Africa. Annet has published her work in Journal of World Development and Food Security and Food Policy.

As a consultant for the Food Security Portal, Annet Adong authored the monthly series of commodity price reports for East Africa.

Ruth Chepchirchir is a Senior Agricultural Economist and Research Consultant with over 15 years of experience in food security, agricultural policy, and development research across sub-Saharan Africa. She has led and contributed to multi-country research and evaluation programmes, with expertise in impact evaluation, market systems, gender analysis, and climate resilience. Her work focuses on generating evidence to inform policy and strengthen smallholder livelihoods. She has collaborated with international organizations, governments, and research institutions, and has extensive experience managing large-scale datasets and delivering policy-relevant insights.

As a consultant for the Food Security Portal, Ruth Chepchirchir authored the monthly series of commodity price reports for Kenya.