Early Warning Systems Hub Alerts

The IPC analysis in Sudan was a complex exercise, given the sheer size of the country and the analytical challenges posed by the ongoing conflict. While IPC findings for February–May 2026 (post-harvest season) cover the entire country (195 localities and IDP settlements), findings for June–September 2026 (lean season) and October 2026-January 2027 (harvest season) cover a significantly smaller area—56 localities and IDP settlements, representing around 8.3 million people and a large share of the most food‑insecure populations.
Data was not available for a full nationwide projection analysis. Caution is therefore advised when comparing figures across periods, as geographic coverage differs significantly.
Nearly 19.5 million people—approximately 41 percent of the country’s population—continue to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between February and May 2026. This includes nearly 135,000 people in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe), more than 5 million people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), and a further 14 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Conditions are expected to deteriorate further in the upcoming June–September lean season.

Six million people in Somalia—31 percent of the analysed population—are facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between April and June 2026, including 1.9 million in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). This marks an increase of more than half a million people compared to the initial projection for this time period. 
The updated analysis of the  April–June 2026 projection period shows that both food security and nutrition outcomes are worse than initially predicted.  The deterioration is driven by poor Gu rainfall, sharp food price spikes linked to the 2026 Middle East conflict, currency depreciation and conflict-related displacement.
A rapid and sustained scale‑up of multisectoral assistance—particularly in hotspot areas such as Burhakaba—is urgently needed to prevent further deterioration and loss of life. 

The IPC conducted a projection update analysis for the period of January to June 2026, focused on the provinces of North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri and Tanganyika. More than 9.9 million people in these four areas will continue to experience high levels of acute food insecurity in this period. Although this represents a slight improvement of 1.8 percent compared with the September 2025 projection for the same period, the situation still reflects a deterioration from the current analysis, underscoring the persistent severity of food insecurity in the region.
At the national level, approximately 26.5 million people (23 percent of the analysed population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity between January and June 2026, including more than 3.6 million people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 22.9 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).
Key drivers of the high levels of acute food insecurity include relentless armed conflict, and economic and climatic shocks. The food security situation is further undermined by limited access to essential services and weakened infrastructure, gaps in social protection systems and insufficient coverage of humanitarian assistance.

The food security situation in Lebanon has worsened following the drastic escalation in hostilities and widespread displacement that began in early March 2026. Around 1.24 million people are facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between April and August 2026, which is worse than was previously projected for this period in the IPC analysis released in October 2025. The declining food security conditions are experienced among all population groups and reverses any improvements observed in the previous reporting period. The biggest increases in populations in Phase 3 or above are found in the southern governorates, particularly in Bent Jbeil, Marjaayoun, El Nabatieh and Sour districts, among both Lebanese and Syrian refugee populations. In these areas, high levels of acute food insecurity are affecting 55 to 65 percent of the population, including approximately 10 percent of people who are in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).

Between April and July 2026, an estimated 7.8 million people in South Sudan are facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC AFI Phase 3 or above). This represents an increase of approximately 280,000 people compared to the September 2025 IPC analysis. Around 73,000 people are classified in IPC AFI Phase 5 (Catastrophe) and are experiencing extreme food consumption gaps associated with starvation, heightened risk of death, and the collapse of livelihoods. A further 2.5 million people are in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency), facing large food gaps and very high levels of acute malnutrition, while approximately 5.3 million people in IPC AFI Phase 3 (Crisis) are unable to meet essential food needs without resorting to unsustainable coping strategies.

Despite limited improvements compared with the projection published in September 2025, the food security situation in Haiti remains critical. Between March and June 2026, over 5.83 million people (52 percent of the analysed population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This represents a marginal improvement compared to the previous estimate of 5.91 million people in Phase 3 or worse.
The food security crisis is marked by ongoing armed violence, the impacts of Hurricane Melissa that hit the southern part of the country in October 2025, and economic collapse which is further exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East.

Acute food insecurity has reached critical levels across Kenya’s 23 Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) and surrounding areas. An estimated 3.3 million people are currently classified in IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) Phase 3 or above, including 400,000 people in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency) who require immediate, life-saving assistance. This marks a 52 percent increase from early 2025 (2.15 million people) and exceeds the October 2025–January 2026 projection, which had estimated 2.12 million people in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above.
Additionally, refugee settlements in Dadaab, Kakuma, and Kalobeyei face similarly dire conditions. Approximately 429,000 people—around two-thirds of the population—are in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above, and all three settlements are in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency). This is driven by sharp reductions in humanitarian assistance, limited livelihood options, and high reliance on costly markets. Without a significant increase in food, non-food, and livelihood support, conditions are expected to remain critical.

Acute malnutrition in Mali is expected to decline by 29 percent compared to last year, but levels remain high with 1.12 million children aged 6–59 months and 91,000 pregnant or breastfeeding women estimated to suffer from acute malnutrition between November 2025 and October 2026. This includes 227,000 cases of severe acute malnutrition (SAM)—a 46 percent reduction compared to last year, attributed to targeted response efforts in areas previously classified in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical). In the current period (November 2025–May 2026), 18 areas are classified in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious). Continued and scaled-up humanitarian assistance is crucial to prevent further deterioration and save lives.

From February–March 2026, a staggering 6.5 million people in Somalia are estimated to be facing high levels of acute food insecurity—nearly double the population classified in IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) in August 2025. This includes more than 2 million people in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency). All affected populations urgently need assistance to protect livelihoods, reduce food deficits, and save lives.
This alarming deterioration is driven by worsening drought, rising food prices, and insecurity across central, southern, and parts of northern Somalia. The situation is compounded by declining humanitarian assistance, with a 27 percent reduction in January 2026 compared to the previous year.

More than one-fifth of the analysed population in Pakistan is facing high levels of acute food insecurity due to the residual impacts of the 2025 monsoon floods, prolonged drought and dry spells, and localised insecurity. Approximately 7.5 million people (21 percent of the analysed population) are classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between December 2025 and March 2026. This includes around 1.25 million people experiencing critical levels of acute food insecurity, IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), characterised by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. Another 6.3 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) are unable to meet their essential food requirements and forced to resort to unstainable coping measures. Immediate, life-saving assistance is needed to prevent a further deterioration and to prevent affected populations—particularly those in Phase 4—from facing catastrophic conditions.