Early Warning Systems Hub Alerts

Following a significant reduction in conflict, a proposed peace plan, and improved access for both humanitarian and commercial food deliveries, food security conditions have improved in the Gaza Strip. However, the situation remains critical.
Between 16 October and 30 November 2025, around 1.6 million people (77 percent of the population analysed) faced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This includes more than half a million people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and over 100,000 people in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).
During the projection period (1 December 2025 to 15 April 2026), the situation is expected to remain severe with around 1.6 million people still facing Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above) food insecurity. This includes 571,000 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions, and about 1,900 people in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), reflecting a reduction in the most extreme conditions.

Prolonged economic deterioration, recurrent drought, and a significant reduction in humanitarian assistance have left large segments of the population unable to meet their minimum food needs. Despite the scale of these pressures, many households have so far avoided more severe outcomes by maintaining some level of food production, retaining livestock, and limiting the use of irreversible coping strategies, supported by largescale lifesaving emergency agriculture and food assistance delivered in recent years. As humanitarian food security assistance declines, these buffers are eroding and vulnerabilities are re-emerging, underscoring the fragility and reversibility of recent food security improvements in Afghanistan.
In the current period (September–October 2025), roughly 13.8 million people (28 percent of the population) were classified in IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse), including 2.9 million in Emergency (IPC AFI Phase 4) and 10.9 million in Crisis (IPC AFI Phase 3).
Food assistance in Afghanistan is limited, reaching only 2.7 percent of the population. This is compounded by a weak, contracting economy marked by high unemployment and declining remittance inflows, largely due to over 2.5 million returnees from Iran and Pakistan in 2025, placing added pressure on overstretched local resources, services, and livelihoods. These economic challenges are further worsened by severe drought and recent earthquakes.
The situation is expected to deteriorate further during the first projection period (November 2025–March 2026), coinciding with the winter lean season. An estimated 17.4 million people (36 percent of the population) are projected to face IPC AFI Phase 3 or above, including 4.7 million in IPC AFI Phase 4.
Some seasonal improvement is expected during the second projection period (April–September 2026), coinciding with the harvest season. The number of people in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above is projected to decline to around 13.8 million (28 percent), including 2.9 million in IPC AFI Phase 4.

Armed conflict in the north and south of the country, frequent population displacement and poor agricultural production are driving 1.92 million people (29 percent of the analysed population) into high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between September 2025 and March 2026. This includes 269,000 people facing IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) conditions and nearly 1.66 million people experiencing IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) levels.
The most affected households are farmers whose agricultural production and carryover stocks remain low, as well as internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees who live in host communities with limited resources.
Ongoing conflict and high food prices are expected to exacerbate the situation in the lean season (April to August 2026) with around 2.29 million people (35 percent of the analysed population) projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity. This includes 400,000 people likely to be in Phase 4 and more than 1.9 million people likely to be in Phase 3.

Food insecurity and malnutrition in South Sudan remain extremely high, driven primarily by localised conflict and expanding civil insecurity that have displaced large populations, as well as by widespread flooding that continues to disrupt livelihoods and agricultural production.
During the current analysis period (September to November 2025), an estimated 5.97 million people (42 percent of the analysed population) in South Sudan are facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC AFI Phase 3 or above), of which around 1.3 million people are facing Emergency (IPC AFI Phase 4) conditions. During this period, as well as the two projection periods, approximately 28,000 people are classified in IPC AFI Phase 5 (Catastrophe), including 17,000 people in Luakpiny/Nasir (Upper Nile) and 11,000 people in Fangak (Jonglei).Luakpiny/Nasir County, particularly its southern parts along the Sobatcorridor, remains a major concern, with populations facing a risk of Famine during bothprojection periods under a plausible worst-case scenario.
During the harvest and post-harvest projection period (December 2025 and March 2026), an estimated 5.86 million people (41 percent of the analysed population) are expected to face IPC AFI Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) conditions. The situation is expected to worsen significantly during the lean season (April to July 2026), with 7.55 million people (53 percent of the analysed population) projected to experience high level of food insecurity (IPC AFI Phase 3 or above).

Food security in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is deteriorating as conflict continues to drive tens of thousands of people from their homes.
Approximately 24.8 million people (21 percent of the population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity between September and December 2025. More than 3.2 million people (3 percent of the population) are facing Emergency levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 4), characterised by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition, while 21.5 million people (18 percent of the population) are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Three territories—Djugu and Mambasa (Ituri) and Masisi (North Kivu)—are now classified in Phase 4, whereas no areas were classified in Phase 4 in the previous analysis for the same period last year.
The overall food security situation is likely to worsen over the projection period (January-June 2026) as 26.6 million people (22 percent of the population) are projected to face Phase 3 or above—an increase of 1.8 million people compared to the current period. Six additional territories are expected to see their situation deteriorate to Phase 4. They are Lubero and Walikale (North Kivu), Kalehe and Fizi (South Kivu), Kongolo and Moba (Tanganyika). Djugu, Mambasa and Masisi will continue to be in Phase 4.
The persistent conflict and population displacement as well as flooding and impacts of the lean season, especially in the eastern part of the country, will drive this deterioration. This, combined with the expected further reductions in humanitarian food aid will leave vulnerable populations at risk of slipping into higher levels of acute food insecurity.

As of September 2025, El Fasher town (North Darfur) and the besieged town of Kadugli (South Kordofan) were classified in Famine (IPC Phase 5) with reasonable evidence. These conditions are expected to persist through January 2026. Conditions in the besieged town of Dilling (South Kordofan) are estimated to be similar to those in Kadugli town; however, the lack of data prevents IPC classification of this area.
Uncertainty surrounding the evolution of conflict heightens the risk of Famine, particularly in 20 areas expected to receive displaced populations across North, South, and East Darfur, as well as West and South Kordofan.
In September 2025, at the peak of the lean season, an estimated 21.2 million people—45 percent of the population—faced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), including 375,000 people in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) and 6.3 million people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).
Food security conditions will improve after the harvest, leading to a decline in the number of people in IPC Phase 3 or above to 19.2 million people between October 2025 and January 2026. However, in North Darfur and the Western Nuba Mountains, gains from the harvest will remain limited due to conflict and insecurity. During the post-harvest and pre-lean season (February - May 2026), acute food insecurity is projected to worsen with an estimated 19.1 million people (41%) expected to face IPC Phase 3 or above conditions. This apparent reduction in numbers is primarily due to the inability to classify several high-concern areas.

Approximately 4 million people (22 percent of the analysed population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between October 2025 and March 2026 – the lean season in Malawi. Of that total, 8,000 people are facing critical levels of acute food insecurity, IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), driven by high food prices, economic decline and below average agricultural production. Phase 4 is characterised by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. These people urgently require Immediate, life-saving assistance to prevent a catastrophe.
Most of the populations in Phase 3 or above are urban poor and low-income households in rural areas who are not able to produce enough of their own food and are dependent on crisis coping strategies to meet their food needs through market purchases. These strategies include harvesting immature crops, reducing expenses on essential health, and exchanging labour for food due to lack of resources or money to buy food. The situation is exacerbated by the persisting depreciate of the Malawian kwacha against major currencies, including the US dollar, Euro and the South African Rand, the high transportation cost and high food prices.

Approximately 1.7 million people (17 percent of the population analysed) are likely to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between October 2025 and March 2026. This is an increase compared to the current period (May – September 2025) where 1.2 million people (12 percent of the population) experienced Phase 3 or above. However, it is a significant improvement compared to the overall situation in 2024 (April – September) where 4.9 million people (29 percent of the population analysed) faced Phase 3 or above.
The large reduction in people facing Phase 3 or above compared to May to September 2024, is largely due to Zambia returning to normalcy after a peculiar year that saw widespread drought across the country.
Despite the improvement in the overall food security situation, 1.7 million people are still in urgent need of humanitarian food assistance to reduce food gaps, protect and restore livelihoods, as well as to prevent acute malnutrition. This includes 9,900 people classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency)—primarily in Mitete, Shang’ombo, and Sikongo districts in the Western province—and 1.69 million people classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). During the projection period, a total of 43 hotspot districts are projected to face Phase 3 or above.

Namibia’s food security situation has improved significantly in 2025 compared to the previous year. In the current period (July to September 2025), approximately 456,000 people (15 percent of the analysed population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above)—a sharp decrease from 1.15 million in the same period last year. While three regions (Kunene, Kavango West, and Zambezi) remain in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis), the rest of the country is classified in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed), with households experiencing minimally adequate food consumption but struggling to meet essential non-food needs without resorting to negative coping mechanisms. This improvement is largely due to above-average rainfall during the 2024/25 season, increased crop production, improved rangeland conditions, and coordinated interventions by the government and development partners.
The food security situation is expected to deteriorate during the lean season (October to March 2026), with projections showing an increase to 612,000 people (20 percent) in Phase 3. This worsening is attributed to the discontinuation of the countrywide drought relief from the Government in August 2025, reduced labour opportunities, high unemployment (nationally at 36.9 percent as per the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA)), and poor livestock conditions in drought-prone areas.

Armed gangs continue to expand territorial control within Haiti, driving over half of the population—nearly 5.7 million people—into high levels of acute food insecurity. Gang violence, coupled with a suffocating economy are leaving the Haitian people in a desperate situation.
Food security continues to deteriorate. Out of the 5.7 million people facing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above), 17 percent of the population (1.9 million people) are facing Emergency levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 4), characterised by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. An additional 3.8 million people (34 percent of the population) face Crisis levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3).
The situation in Haiti is a complex, multi-dimensional crisis, marked by an economy that has been in steady decline for several years—recording economic recessions for the last six years—and attacks by armed gangs that have led to massive population displacements and the deterioration of livelihoods. Data from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) indicates that approximately 1.3 million people are now internally displaced in Haiti, a 24 percent increase compared to December 2024. Between June and July 2025, the number of internally displaced person (IDP) sites increased from 246 to 272. This increase is mainly due to displacement caused by armed attacks in the Centre department since April 2025.