Acute food insecurity has reached critical levels across Kenya’s 23 Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) and surrounding areas. An estimated 3.3 million people are currently classified in IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) Phase 3 or above, including 400,000 people in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency) who require immediate, life-saving assistance. This marks a 52 percent increase from early 2025 (2.15 million people) and exceeds the October 2025–January 2026 projection, which had estimated 2.12 million people in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above.
Additionally, refugee settlements in Dadaab, Kakuma, and Kalobeyei face similarly dire conditions. Approximately 429,000 people—around two-thirds of the population—are in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above, and all three settlements are in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency). This is driven by sharp reductions in humanitarian assistance, limited livelihood options, and high reliance on costly markets. Without a significant increase in food, non-food, and livelihood support, conditions are expected to remain critical.