Between May and August 2025, an estimated 3.4 million people—equivalent to 19 percent of Guatemala’s population—faced high levels of Acute Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This figure represents around 400,000 more people compared to the same period in 2024. Eleven of the 22 departments analysed were classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis), notably Alta Verapaz, Huehuetenango and Quiché.
For the first projection period, September 2025 to January 2026, a relative improvement is expected, with around 2.6 million people (14 percent of the population analysed) in IPC Phase 3 or above. This includes 2.4 million in Phase 3 (Crisis) and 185,000 in Phase 4 (Emergency). This represents a 5 percent reduction compared with the previous period, attributed to improved food availability in some areas.
However, for the second projection period, February to April 2026, a deterioration is anticipated, with about 3 million people (16 percent of the population analysed) in IPC Phase 3 or above. Of this total, around 2.8 million would remain in Phase 3 (Crisis) and more than 248,000 in Phase 4 (Emergency), reflecting the persistence of structural factors that continue to undermine food security.

Approximately 2.09 million people are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between April and September 2025, with 143,000 people experiencing Emergency levels (IPC Phase 4), characterised by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. The remaining 1.95 million people are experiencing IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) conditions.
The key drivers of the situation include climatic shocks—drought and irregular rainfall—in the southern and central areas of the country, as well as high food prices. In recent months, the northern part of the country has experienced a cessation of conflict and a degree of stabilisation, enabling the return of approximately 700,000 people. Despite this, more than 9,000 people remain internally displaced in Cabo Delgado. Displaced households and households in the process of returning to safe areas often face significant challenges, including limited access to agricultural production, livestock, and other forms of income generation. Their capacity to resume sustainable livelihoods remains severely constrained, leaving many entirely reliant on humanitarian food assistance. Meanwhile, sporadic attacks continue to occur in the districts of Macomia and Quissanga, where conflict continues to undermine security and recovery efforts.

An estimated 1.42 million people in Uganda are expected to face high levels of food insecurity between August 2025 and February 2026. This is an improvement compared to the current analysis period (April to July 2025) when approximately 2.46 million people were classified in IPC Phase 3 or above.
The improvement is largely due to the expected strong harvest season. However, food insecurity remains persistent in Karenga, Napak, Kaabong, Moroto, and Kotido, where between 30 and 45 percent of the population are still classified in IPC Phase 3 or above. It remains essential to implement activities aimed at reducing the food consumption deficits of food insecure populations as well as strengthening their resilience capacities.

Nearly 1.8 million people are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse), between July and September 2025 (lean season). Of this total, around 179,000 people are experiencing IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) conditions, while the remaining population is classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). The worst-affected areas are four arid counties—Baringo, Mandera, Marsabit, and Turkana.
The current situation has improved compared to the period between February and March 2025 when 2.2 million people faced high levels of acute food insecurity. The improvement is attributed to above-average rainfall, which positively impacted crop and livestock production, and water availability and access, leading to slightly improved household food security in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs).
During the projection period (October 2025 to January 2026), the food security situation is expected to deteriorate, particularly during the short rains season (October–December 2025). An estimated 2.1 million people are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). The deterioration is mainly driven by forecasted below-average rainfall, which is expected to further affect staple food prices, alongside conflicts over resource management. Compared to the same period last year, the population projected in Phase 3 or above has increased from 11 to 13 percent with around 2 million people expected to be in Phase 3, and approximately 160,000 people in Phase 4.

The acute food insecurity situation in Madagascar remains deeply concerning. Approximately 1.2 million people—representing 13 percent of the population in the districts analysed—are currently experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in IPC Phase 3 or above. This includes 29,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 1.17 million in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).
Conditions are expected to deteriorate during the first projection period (October 2025 to January 2026), with 1.5 million people projected to face Phase 3 or above, including a sharp increase of 84,000 people in Phase 4. This deterioration is primarily driven by an early lean season, resulting in poor harvests and elevated food prices, which undermine both availability and accessibility of food.
A further decline is anticipated in the second projection period (February to April 2026), with nearly 1.64 million people expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity, including 110,000 people in Phase 4 (Emergency). Alarmingly, marginalised and low-income rural households are disproportionately affected, with 5 to 10 percent of the population in some areas projected to be in Phase 4, even during the peak harvest season.
This worsening crisis is driven by a combination of recurring climate shocks (including droughts, floods, and cyclones), major agricultural disruptions (such as delayed planting and locust infestations), declining purchasing power, and limited access to essential services and humanitarian assistance. These factors are compounded by chronic poverty and fragile community resilience, placing millions at heightened risk.

As of 15 August 2025, Famine (IPC Phase 5)—with reasonable evidence—is confirmed in Gaza Governorate. After 22 months of relentless conflict, over half a million people in the Gaza Strip are facing catastrophic conditions characterised by starvation, destitution and death. Another 1.07 million people (54 percent) are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), and 396,000 people (20 percent) are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Between mid-August and the end of September 2025, conditions are expected to further worsen with Famine projected to expand to Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis. Nearly a third of the population (641,000 people) are expected to face catastrophic conditions (IPC Phase 5), while those in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) will likely rise to 1.14 million (58 percent). Acute malnutrition is projected to continue worsening rapidly. Through June 2026, at least 132,000 children under five are expected to suffer from acute malnutrition—double the IPC estimates from May 2025. This includes over 41,000 severe cases of children at heightened risk of death. Nearly 55,500 malnourished pregnant and breastfeeding women will require urgent nutrition response. Conditions in North Gaza Governorate are estimated to be as severe—or worse—than in Gaza Governorate. However, limited data prevents IPC classification of this area, highlighting the urgent need for access and comprehensive assessments. Rafah Governorate was not analysed given indications that it is largely depopulated.

Between June and September 2025, 193,000 people (16 percent of the population) in Eswatini are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity and loss of livelihood, classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). Although food security has improved significantly compared to the same period last year, the situation is expected to deteriorate during the projection period (October 2025 to March 2026). An estimated 259,000 people (21 percent of the population) are likely to face Crisis or worse conditions, representing an increase of 66,000 people compared to the current period. The Lowveld Cattle and Maize (LCM) zone continues to experience the worst food security conditions, with over 72,000 people in Phase 3 or above, followed by the Dry Middleveld (DMV) and the Lubombo Plateau (LP) with nearly 30,000 people and more than 9,400 people in Phase 3 or above respectively. These numbers demonstrate persistently high food insecurity levels.