During the current period (March to May 2025), the Trinational Border Region of the Río Lempa is experiencing a moderate but sustained decline in acute food security, primarily driven by climatic variability, high food prices, and low food reserves. An estimated 100,000 people (16 percent of the analysed population) are classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse), requiring urgent action to safeguard livelihoods and address food consumption gaps. This includes approximately 97,000 people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 3,000 in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). The Ch’orti’ micro-region is the most severely affected, with 25 percent of its population in Phase 3 or higher, while Ocotepeque, Cayaguanca and Güija remain in Phase 2 (Stressed), despite hosting a significant population in Crisis. Food access and availability are constrained by crop losses caused by prolonged droughts, erratic rainfall, and pest outbreaks, and are further exacerbated by the increasing cost of basic food items.
During the first projection period (June to September 2025) indicates a further deterioration during the seasonal hunger period, with 139,000 people (23 percent) projected to be in Phase 3 or above, including 15,000 in Phase 4 (Emergency). The Ch’orti’ region is expected to remain severely affected, with one in three people in Crisis or worse. This decline is largely attributed to the depletion of 70 percent of staple grain reserves, rising market prices, and reduced employment opportunities in the agricultural sector.
From October 2025 to February 2026, a slight improvement is anticipated, supported by seasonal labour demand, grain harvests, and remittances. Nevertheless, around 69,000 people (11 percent) will remain in Phase 3 or above, highlighting persistent vulnerabilities, especially in Ch’orti’, which is expected to maintain Phase 3 classification for 20 percent of its population

Nineteen months into the conflict, the Gaza Strip is still confronted with a critical risk of Famine. Over 60 days have passed since all humanitarian aid and commercial supplies were blocked from entering the territory. Goods indispensable for people’s survival are either depleted or expected to run out in the coming weeks. The entire population is facing high levels of acute food insecurity, with half a million people (one in five) facing starvation.

From 11 May to the end of September 2025, the whole territory is classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), with the entire population expected to face Crisis or worse acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This includes 470,000 people (22 percent of the population) in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), over a million people (54 percent) in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and the remaining half million (24 percent) in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). This marks a significant deterioration compared to the previous IPC analysis (released in October 2024) and the already dire conditions detected between 1 April - 10 May 2025. During this time, 1.95 million people (93 percent) were classified in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above), including 244,000 people (12 percent) in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) and 925,000 (44 percent) in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).

Prolonged dry spells, floods, high food prices and low household purchasing power are driving 466,000 people (10 percent of the analysed population) into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of acute food insecurity between February and May 2025. Although there has been a slight improvement since December 2023, poor households remain heavily affected, particularly those reliant on agriculture and livestock whose incomes have been below average. All 16 district councils assessed in Mainland Tanzania are classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
Food security is expected to improve between June and October 2025, with 242,000 people projected in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and nearly 1 million in Stressed (IPC Phase 2), supported by favourable rainfall and upcoming harvests. However, persistent risks such as dry spells, floods, high food prices, and crop and livestock diseases could reverse these gains.

High food prices, rising costs of agricultural inputs, and the impact of Tropical Storm Sara contributed to approximately 1.8 million people—equivalent to 470,000 households or 18 percent of the national population—facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between December 2024 and March 2025. Of these, around 116,000 people were classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) nationwide.
In the first projected period, from April to July 2025, despite a slight improvement, the situation remains similar for an estimated 1.7 million people (17 percent of the population), who are likely to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), with at least 92,000 people expected to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). During this period, while the dry season may be stimulating tourism in some parts of the country and food inflation shows signs of stabilisation, agricultural households are anticipated to face hardship due to depleted food stocks during the lean season. Moreover, the potential suspension of projects funded by USAID may negatively impact key sectors such as education, health, and migration, further increasing the vulnerability of the population.

More than half of Haiti’s population—approximately 5.7 million people—are facing high levels of acute food insecurity, driven by relentless gang violence and ongoing economic collapse, according to the latest IPC analysis.
Out of the 5.7 million people facing high levels of acute food insecurity—the highest number in recent years—over 8,400 people living in displacement camps are experiencing catastrophic hunger in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe). An additional 2.1 million people, representing 19 per cent of the analysed population, are in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), facing critical food insecurity, while 3.6 million people (32 per cent) are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

In late March, the IPC Technical Working Group in Somalia conducted an update of their analysis released in February 2025. This update reflects the likely impact of the major reduction in humanitarian assistance funding announced recently and also a likely further increase in population displacement due to drought and conflict. Update reflects the likely impact of the major reduction in humanitarian assistance funding announced recently and also a likely further increase in population displacement due to drought and conflict.
The reduction in humanitarian funding is already affecting the nutrition, health, and WASH service delivery, impacting the nutrition outcome for two rural livelihoods which have worsened from Serious (IPC AMN Phase 3) to Critical (IPC AMN Phase 4).
The total acute malnutrition burden estimate for January to December 2025 has also increased to 1.8 million children aged 6-59 months, including 479,000 children likely to be severely malnourished. Compared to the January 2025 analysis, with a total burden estimate of 1.7 million for the same period, the revised estimate reflects an increase of nearly 47,000 children facing acute malnutrition.

Limited food access, combined with high food prices and climate variability are driving 922,000 people (8 percent of the population analysed) into high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between February and May 2025. There are 28 provinces projected to be in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) during this time. Food price inflation is expected to persist, further limiting food access, especially for the most vulnerable households. Additionally, remittances are projected to decline significantly, while commercial and tourism-related activities are expected to decrease following the end of the peak visitor season.
In the projected period (June to September 2025), the situation will remain more or less the same, with 890,000 people (8 percent of the population analysed) projected to be in Phase 3 or above. Inflation is expected to remain resistant to decline due to domestic demand and production costs, while food prices will continue rising. The transition from La Niña to neutral climatic conditions may support agricultural production and reduce disaster-related risks. However, households with students will face increased food expenses due to the end of the school term and the suspension of the school feeding programme.

Escalating conflict in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has exacerbated the food crisis, leaving an estimated 27.7 million Congolese (24 percent of the analysed population) facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between January and June 2025. This includes approximately 3.9 million in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and over 23.8 million in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
In this projection update, the situation deteriorated in the four provinces of North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, and Tanganyika, with more than 10.3 million people facing Phase 3 or above, including 7.9 million people in Phase 3 and 2.3 million in Phase 4.