Can a human catastrophe in Gaza still be averted?

As the Israel-Hamas conflict rages on in the Gaza Strip, the region’s entire population remains under threat of severe food crisis. The latest alert from the IPC Integrated Phase Classification for Acute Food Insecurity reports that one in five people in the Gaza Strip—upwards of 500,000—are at the brink of  starvation (IPC Phase 5 Catastrophe) due to the cessation of the ceasefire and the resumption of blockades of humanitarian aid and commercial supplies earlier this year. The entire population is facing crisis-level acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or worse). 

Figure 1: Populations expected to be classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse), May-September 2025

Source: IPC (April 2025). Gaza Strip: IPC Acute Food Insecurity and Acute Malnutrition Special Snapshot April - September 2025.

Unless aid and market access are allowed to resume, these dire conditions are expected to continue through the end of September 2025. A recent new invasion of Israeli troops into Gaza has forced yet another mass displacement of the population. While, under international pressure, Israel has promised to allow ‘basic quantities of food supplies’ into the territory, the UN and other international aid agencies have deemed this promise far from sufficient to stave off the risk of famine and sharp increase of child mortality. In addition to the lack of food, the population also lacks access to medicine, drinking water, and basic health services.

The Gaza Strip experienced one of the most severe food and nutrition crises in the world in 2024, according to the 2025 Global Report on Food Crisis released last week. Though more than half of the population lived under the specter of famine for much of 2024, no actual famine was declared due to off-and-on resumption of shipments of humanitarian aid. This underlines the critical dependence of the entire population of Gaza on stable flows of humanitarian assistance. Without effective mechanisms providing such assistance and restoration of basic services, the risk of famine will remain extremely high.

Gaza's critical dependence on humanitarian assistance also reflects the near complete erosion of the population’s resilience and ability to cope with the crisis. Nearly all of the population has lost their livelihoods, been displaced multiple times, and seen the territory’s infrastructure, basic services, and agricultural lands largely destroyed.

Proposals have been launched to permanently relocate Gaza’s population to other Arab countries to pave the way for infrastructural redevelopment of the territory. However, these do not include pathways for restoration of the livelihoods and resilience of Gaza's population. Moreover, these proposals raise serious humanitarian and legal concerns, as forced displacement would violate international conventions and could cause long-term psychological, social, and economic harm.

Without a ceasefire and prospects for a political solution to the conflict, reconstruction efforts for and by the population of Gaza seem extremely dim. However, studying feasible options for viable reconstruction of livelihoods and the territory’s infrastructure could help enhance the prospects of ending the conflict. Early recovery could be achieved through stepped up external assistance, lifting of restrictions on workers and economic activity in Gaza, and investment in restoring basic services (health, water, sanitation, electricity, and communications connectivity), agricultural lands, and market infrastructure, as proposed in UNDP’s Non-Restricted Early Recovery (NRER) proposal.

These efforts may need to be supplemented with fast-building approaches (modular construction, prefabrication, and 3D printing) and the facilitation of a transition from in-kind to cash-based social assistance.  This investment solution would require strong international support to provide initial private and public finance and to help put new governance mechanisms in place, akin to the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) process used in post-bankruptcy and post-conflict situations.

A rapid but humane reconstruction strategy will be essential for Gaza's stability and socio-economic recovery, which in turn could help peace-building in the territory. While an end to the conflict is nowhere close in sight, studying the options for feasible and rapid reconstruction of livelihoods may help shed some light in the tunnel.

Rob Vos is a Senior Research Fellow in IFPRI's Markets, Trade, and Institutions Division. Sara Gustafson is a freelance writer and communications consultant.