With the onset of 2024, commodity markets remain relatively calm, at least compared to the recent past. Wheat, maize and soybean export prices were at their lowest of the past two years. Rice prices remain the exception: due to El Niño-induced production shortfalls and India's ongoing export restrictions, these are almost a third higher than they were one year ago. Markets will be watching the development of Brazil soybean production which have been under some stress due to below normal rainfall. Yet, potential for shocks abounds: shipping disruptions in the Panama Canal, the Red Sea and many inland waterways could threaten established trade routes, and alter the competitiveness of different origins, with implications for planting intentions for 2024 crops.