The AMIS Market Monitor provides a synopsis of major developments in international commodity markets, focusing on wheat, maize, rice and soybeans. The analysis is a collective assessment of the member organizations of AMIS concerning the international market situation and outlook.

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Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor May 2026

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May 8th, 2026
Global markets faced renewed pressures in April as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continued to disrupt fertilizer supply, pushing urea and phosphate prices higher and further eroding fertilizer affordability. Supply chain disruptions, combined with higher energy and logistics costs, intensified production challenges. Policy responses included export restrictions on key fertilizer inputs, revised trade measures, and adjustments to biofuel mandates. Against this backdrop, crop conditions remained broadly favourable: wheat and maize benefited from generally good weather although rainfall is needed in some parts, rice harvests progressed across Asia and South America, and soybean harvesting in the southern hemisphere advanced. However, rising input costs highlight growing risks for future agricultural production, including shifting area to less input-intensive crops.

FAO Food Price Index sees second consecutive monthly rise, driven by energy prices

The FAO Food Price Index rose for the second month in a row in March, up by 2.4 percent from February. As the conflict escalates in the Near East, global energy prices have surged, with varying impacts on commodity prices. The Index reached 1 percent above its March 2025 level but remains nearly 20 percent below the peak of March 2022. The Cereal Price Index increased by 1.5 percent in March, with all major cereals except rise seeing a rise in prices. Wheat prices rose by 4.3 percent due to concerns over drought in the U.S.

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor April 2026

/sites/default/files/2026-04/AMIS_Market_Monitor_April_2026.pdf
Apr 3rd, 2026
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent shockwaves across the global economy through energy markets, with spillovers to the agricultural sector, as detailed in this month’s feature article. The recent AMIS Rapid Response Forum underscored the need for continued vigilance amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Against this backdrop, agricultural prices moved unevenly in March. Wheat and maize prices edged higher, while rice prices declined and soybean prices were slightly softer. Vegetable oil prices generally strengthened, reflecting expectations of higher biodiesel demand. Prices of futures for wheat, maize and soybeans firmed modestly but remained largely rangebound, as heightened uncertainty was tempered by ample global supplies. In parallel, several countries adjusted fertilizer policies in response to concerns over access and availability.

FAO Food Price Index Increases for First Time in Five Months

The FAO Food Price Index rose in February for the first time in five months, driven by increasing cereal, meat, and vegetable oil prices. Despite the increase, however, the Index remains nearly 35 percent below the record high reached in March 2022.The Cereal Price Index rose slightly more than 1 percent in February but remained 3.5 percent below its February 2025 level. Wheat prices increased due to concerns about cold weather in Europe and the United States, as well as transportation disruptions in Russia and the Black Sea region.

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor February 2026

/sites/default/files/2026-03/AMIS_Market_Monitor_February_2026.pdf
Feb 6th, 2026
Grains and oilseeds export prices edged slightly lower in January, with the IGC’s Grains and Oilseeds Index reflecting ample global supplies and year‑on‑year declines across most commodities except soybeans. Fertilizer prices continued to ease across major nutrients, although urea prices remained elevated due to rising natural gas costs.
As February 2026 begins, market fundamentals and prevailing uncertainties point to a cautiously stable outlook. Robust supplies, diversified trade flows, and adequate inventories suggest that the agrifood system can absorb moderate shocks. However, this stability should not be taken for granted. Unexpected disruptions could quickly increase volatility, underscoring the importance of open trade and greater transparency. Ongoing vigilance and sound policy choices will be essential for sustaining market stability.

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor March 2026

/sites/default/files/2026-03/AMIS_Market_Monitor_March_2026.pdf
Mar 6th, 2026
In February, wheat prices firmed amid adverse weather, logistics constraints, and geopolitical tensions, despite globally ample supplies. FAO’s initial forecast for 2026 points to a 3 percent production decline due to reduced sowings and a return to average yields, with cold spells in parts of Europe and dryness in North America posing additional risks. Maize prices remained broadly stable, as strong demand for US supplies offset weaker market conditions in South America. Rice prices were mostly steady amid soft import demand and improving supplies across Asia. Soybean prices rose moderately on tighter US supplies and firmer Argentine markets despite mounting trade uncertainty. Escalating conflict in the Near East could further amplify risks to global agriculture by pushing up energy and fertilizer prices, thereby increasing production and transport costs for farmers worldwide.

FAO Food Price Index Declined in January, Pointing to Cautiously Optimistic 2026 Outlook

The FAO Food Price Index fell in January for the fifth straight month, to nearly 23 percent below the record high seen in March 2022. Sugar, meat, and dairy prices drove the decline. The Cereal Price Index rose marginally in January but is still nearly 4 percent below its January 2025 level. Wheat prices fell 0.4 percent, with strong global supplies balancing growing demand and concerns about weather in several major producing regions. Strong supplies drove maize prices down slightly as well.

FAO Food Price Index Declines for Third Consecutive Month

The FAO Food Price Index fell for the third month in a row in November, declining by 1.2 percent. Prices declined for all commodities except cereals. The Index in November stood 2.1 percent below its year-earlier level and nearly 22 percent below the peak of March 2022.

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor December 2025

/sites/default/files/2025-12/AMIS_Market_Monitor_December_2025.pdf
Dec 5th, 2025
As we close out 2025, global agricultural markets remain well supplied, while price movements across key commodities have been mixed throughout the year: rice and wheat fell below their year earlier levels, maize held steady, and soybeans strengthened. Much of the year was shaped by uncertainty surrounding trade policies, though November brought renewed optimism, especially regarding trade prospects between China and the United States. Fertilizer prices eased, yet the widening gap between input costs and crop values continues to weigh on demand. With the end of the US federal government shutdown, several reports essential for market transparency were restored. The next edition of the Market Monitor will be published on Friday, 6 February. With best wishes for a successful and prosperous 2026!
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