The AMIS Market Monitor provides a synopsis of major developments in international commodity markets, focusing on wheat, maize, rice and soybeans. The analysis is a collective assessment of the member organizations of AMIS concerning the international market situation and outlook.

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Topic

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor May 2025

/sites/default/files/2025-05/AMIS_Market_Monitor_May_2025.pdf
May 2nd, 2025
Harvesting of maize and soybeans is progressing with excellent yield potential in parts of Brazil yet elsewhere in the southern hemisphere crops have suffered from hot and dry weather. In the northern hemisphere, winter crops also experienced insufficient precipitations, while spring sowing is ongoing. Seasonally improving palm oil outputs in Southeast Asia have erased the unusual price premium over competing oils at some destinations. Although overall price movements across commodities remained relatively contained, market participants are closely observing rapid policy developments related to tariff announcements and possible retaliatory measures. The changing trade landscape will also impact the overall macroeconomic environment affecting energy prices, exchange rates, and growth prospects, with its own implications for agricultural production and trade.

Commodity Prices Stable in March, But Concerns over Trade Remain

The FAO Food Price Index remained stable in March, with falling cereal and sugar prices balancing rising meat and vegetable oil prices. The Index was almost 7 percent higher than its March 2024 level but still remains significantly below March 2022 levels.

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor April 2025

/sites/default/files/2025-04/AMIS_Market_Monitor_April_2025.pdf
Apr 4th, 2025
Winter wheat crops in the Northern Hemisphere are breaking dormancy, while maize and soybean harvesting continues in the Southern Hemisphere. In March 2025, average export prices for grains and soybeans exhibited a mostly weaker tone, attributed to easing concerns about crop conditions in major producing countries and geopolitical developments, including escalating international trade tensions. These tensions and trade policy changes create uncertainties for producers, traders, and consumers; they pose risks of retaliatory measures and affect markets with implications for food security. Well-functioning markets are crucial for meeting food demand and ensuring access. As in past episodes of volatility and uncertainty, AMIS strives to maintain and improve transparency and ease access to information, benefiting market actors and policy-makers alike.

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor March 2025

/sites/default/files/2025-03/AMIS_Market_Monitor_March_2025.pdf
Mar 7th, 2025
In February 2025, crop conditions remained generally favorable across most of the globe with some pockets of concern, most notably for maize in South America where above-average temperatures are forecasted, raising the risk of heat stress during the crop's reproductive development. Compared to February 2024, maize prices were almost 25 percent higher, while rice prices reached two year lows. FAO’s preliminary forecast for global wheat production in 2025 indicates a modest increase, with the world output projected at 796 million tonnes, a near 1 percent year on-year rise. Markets continue to be affected by uncertainty regarding international trade relations, with trade policy changes in the United States triggering responses from partners and potentially altering the global trade landscape.

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor February 2025

/sites/default/files/2025-02/AMIS_Market_Monitor_February_2025.pdf
Feb 7th, 2025
Except for maize, where international export prices reached a 15-month peak amidst supply concerns, global prices of AMIS crops are currently lower than they were a year ago. However, concerns about winter wheat crop conditions in parts of the EU, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and North America provide support to quotations in some origins.

Markets are also watching for potential changes in US trade policies and the responses from trading partners. This month's feature article reveals no evidence of long-term global yield growth deceleration. Instead, slow yield growth in certain commodities, regions, or countries appears to have been offset by accelerated growth elsewhere.

Yet, caution is in order: Global temperatures in 2024 were the warmest since records began in 1850, necessitating developments of cultivars resilient to temperature and precipitation variations.

Food Prices Reach Highest Level Since April 2023

Rising dairy and vegetable oil prices drove the FAO Food Price Index up by 5.7 percent from November 2023 and to the highest value seen since April 2023. The Index remained more than 20 percent below the peak reached in March 2022, however.

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor December 2024

/sites/default/files/2024-12/AMIS_Market_Monitor_December_2024.pdf
Dec 6th, 2024
Global prices for AMIS crops are currently lower than they were a year ago. The maize subindex has declined by 1.5%, while wheat and rice prices have fallen by approximately 10%, and soybean prices have dropped by nearly 20%. This indicates a relatively stable global market situation for the current marketing season.

However, uncertainties persist, particularly concerning potential shifts in U.S. trade policies and the reactions from trading partners. With 2024 projected to be the warmest year on record, variations in rainfall and temperature are expected to have mixed impacts on crop yields, varying by commodity and region.
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