The AMIS Market Monitor provides a synopsis of major developments in international commodity markets, focusing on wheat, maize, rice and soybeans. The analysis is a collective assessment of the member organizations of AMIS concerning the international market situation and outlook.

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Cereal, Vegetable Oil, and Fertilizer Prices Continue Decline in September: FAO Food Price Index and AMIS Market Monitor Released

Reductions in cereal and vegetable oil prices contributed to a slight decline in the FAO Food Price Index in September. The Index remains nearly 20 percent below its March 2022 peak but rose 3.4 percent from September 2024.

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor October 2025

/sites/default/files/2025-10/AMIS_Market_Monitor_October_2025.pdf
Oct 3rd, 2025
In October, wheat harvesting wraps up and the harvesting of maize and soybeans begins across the northern hemisphere. In the southern hemisphere, wheat crop is developing, and farmers are starting to plant maize and soybeans. Rice harvests are ongoing in China and Southeast Asia. Overall, crop prospects are good. In September, wheat, maize, and rice prices generally declined, owing to ample supplies and strong competition among exporters. However, soybean prices stayed firm in Brazil and the United States, balancing out price drops in Argentina caused by changes in export taxes. Despite these positive trends, ongoing trade tensions have triggered adjustments in trade flows of some commodities, with potential implications on farmers' margins in producing countries and consequently future planting decisions.

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor September 2025

/sites/default/files/2025-09/AMIS_Market_Monitor_September_2025.pdf
Sep 5th, 2025
In August, wheat and rice export prices dropped to their lowest levels in years, largely due to abundant global supplies and weak demand. Meanwhile, maize and soybean prices found support from higher export premiums and robust international buying interest. Vegetable oil prices remained strong, because of increased palm oil quotes driven by steady global import needs. Nitrogen fertilizer prices climbed, especially with strong demand from India during what is usually a quiet season, while prices for phosphorus and potassium fertilizers stayed mostly steady. However, fertilizer is becoming less affordable compared to crop prices in many regions, which could lead farmers to adjust their application rates. Although the outlook for AMIS commodities remains generally positive, ongoing uncertainties in trade and biofuel policies continue to pose risks for market participants.

FAO Food Price Index Rises Marginally in June

The FAO Food Price Index rose marginally in June to reach nearly 6 percent above its June 2024 level. Declining cereal and sugar prices were balanced by increases in meat, dairy, and vegetable oil prices. The Index remained more than 20 percent below the high seen in March 2022.

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor July 2025

/sites/default/files/2025-07/AMIS_Market_Monitor_July_2025.pdf
Jul 4th, 2025
Global wheat prices edged up slightly in June, despite seasonal harvest pressure. Maize prices declined, driven by favourable crop conditions in the United States and strong export competition from South America. Rice prices fell amid subdued global demand. Soybean prices rose, supported by firm demand. Meanwhile, the EU reinstated import quotas on Ukrainian grain, and India continued its wheat export ban. Fertilizer markets also experienced volatility, largely due to instability in the Near East. Current forecasts suggest a comfortable global supply outlook for AMIS crops. However, heatwaves affecting parts of Europe, India, and the United States could constrain the yield potential, particularly of maize. While weather-related uncertainty remains a constant feature of agricultural markets, its impacts are now compounded by trade policy shifts and geopolitical tensions.

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor June 2025

/sites/default/files/2025-06/AMIS_Market_Monitor_June_2025.pdf
Jun 6th, 2025
The June edition of the Market Monitor introduces the first complete forecasts for global cereal balances. Preliminary estimates suggest a possible recovery in wheat production along with notable increases in maize, rice, and soybean outputs. However, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these projections as many crops are yet to be planted in the Northern hemisphere. Although May rainfall provided some relief, drought and high temperatures remain significant risks. Global temperatures for April 2025 were the second warmest on record, and forecasts indicate potential heat waves in several key producing areas. Increased temperatures may contribute to higher year-to-year yield variability – as shown on the example of maize - affecting production levels. Furthermore, changes in trade policies could influence the global trade outlook.

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor May 2025

/sites/default/files/2025-05/AMIS_Market_Monitor_May_2025.pdf
May 2nd, 2025
Harvesting of maize and soybeans is progressing with excellent yield potential in parts of Brazil yet elsewhere in the southern hemisphere crops have suffered from hot and dry weather. In the northern hemisphere, winter crops also experienced insufficient precipitations, while spring sowing is ongoing. Seasonally improving palm oil outputs in Southeast Asia have erased the unusual price premium over competing oils at some destinations. Although overall price movements across commodities remained relatively contained, market participants are closely observing rapid policy developments related to tariff announcements and possible retaliatory measures. The changing trade landscape will also impact the overall macroeconomic environment affecting energy prices, exchange rates, and growth prospects, with its own implications for agricultural production and trade.
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