The June edition of the Market Monitor introduces the first complete forecasts for global cereal balances. Preliminary estimates suggest a possible recovery in wheat production along with notable increases in maize, rice, and soybean outputs. However, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these projections as many crops are yet to be planted in the Northern hemisphere. Although May rainfall provided some relief, drought and high temperatures remain significant risks. Global temperatures for April 2025 were the second warmest on record, and forecasts indicate potential heat waves in several key producing areas. Increased temperatures may contribute to higher year-to-year yield variability – as shown on the example of maize - affecting production levels. Furthermore, changes in trade policies could influence the global trade outlook.