The AMIS Market Monitor provides a synopsis of major developments in international commodity markets, focusing on wheat, maize, rice and soybeans. The analysis is a collective assessment of the member organizations of AMIS concerning the international market situation and outlook.

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Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor October 2024

/sites/default/files/2024-10/AMIS_Market_Monitor_October_2024.pdf
Oct 4th, 2024
In August 2024, global temperatures reached record highs for the 15th consecutive month. Favourable rainfall improved wheat prospects in Australia, while excessive wet weather caused harvest delays in Canada. Despite improvements in Panama Canal crossings, low water levels in the Mississippi River disrupted supply chains, complicating exports of maize and soybeans in particular via the US Gulf. Reflecting
weather-influenced market fundamentals, the export prices for wheat, maize, and soybeans all increased in September, though
they remained below their levels from a year earlier. Rice prices stayed softer. Fertilizer markets, generally well-supplied, anticipate
seasonally increased activity in the last quarter of the year. In September, India lifted its 14-month export ban on non-basmati rice,
replacing it with a minimum export price.

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor September 2024

/sites/default/files/2024-09/AMIS_Market_Monitor_September_2024.pdf
Sep 6th, 2024
With 2024 likely to rank among the warmest years on record, weather continued to dominate commodity market news in recent weeks, in both positive and negative ways. While the forecast for 2024 global maize output was trimmed as heat constrained yields in parts of the European Union, Mexico and Ukraine, global soybean production forecast was lifted on account of favourable weather in the United States. Crossings in the Panama Canal are approaching their usual levels, while shipping disruptions in the Red Sea continue. The current edition broadens the coverage of developments in the fertilizer markets and introduces new indicators. Although easing from their peaks, fertilizer cost indices and fertilizer crop price ratios remained above their 2019 average in almost all regions. A page on vegetable oils was also added, covering main market developments.

Cereal Prices Fall in June, Concerns over Weather Remain

After three consecutive months of increasing prices, the FAO Food Price Index remained steady in June, with rising vegetable oil, sugar, and dairy prices balancing falling cereal prices. The Index remained 2.1 percent below its June 2023 level and almost 25 percent below the peak seen in March 2022.

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor July 2024

/sites/default/files/2024-07/AMIS_Market_Monitor_July_2024.pdf
Jul 4th, 2024
Wheat prices are ebbing under the harvest pressure from the northern hemisphere. Fresh supplies from the southern hemisphere are doing the same for maize prices, even as
harvests in Argentina and Brazil are likely to fall short of expectations. Exceptionally wet weather in parts of the European Union could bring up quality concerns for wheat.
May 2024 was the 12th consecutive month of record-breaking global temperatures. Should this trend persist, there will likely be negative impacts on agriculture from extreme heat, particularly if heat occurs during periods of moisture stress or the key reproductive stages that determine final yields.
AMIS Market Monitor will return with fresh features and on a new publication schedule on Friday, 6 September.

Concerns over wheat supplies and prices, plus the impact of biofuels on vegetable oil markets: Latest FAO Food Price Index and AMIS Market Monitor released

The FAO Food Price Index rose by nearly 1 percent in May due to increased cereal and dairy prices. It remained 3.4 percent below its May 2023 levels and nearly 25 percent below the peak seen in March 2022.

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor June 2024

/sites/default/files/2024-06/AMIS_Market_Monitor_June_2024.pdf
Jun 6th, 2024
The month of May marks the release of the first forecasts for global cereal production, but with many crops yet to be planted in the Northern hemisphere, there is a high level of uncertainty with these projections. This year, the validity of the first forecasts for 2024/25 wheat production is already being tested, as drought and prolonged frost in key producing areas of the Russian Federation have constrained yield prospects. Consequently, world wheat export prices surged during May on deepening production worries, centered on the Black Sea region. Wheat, most of which is consumed as food with only a limited number of substitutes, is being watched very closely, particularly by importing countries from a food security perspective.

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor May 2024

/sites/default/files/2024-05/AMIS_Market_Monitor_May_2024.pdf
May 2nd, 2024
Harvesting of maize and soybeans in the southern hemisphere is progressing, but lack of rain earlier in the season and high temperatures have constrained yields. In the northern hemisphere, winter crops also suffered from insufficient precipitations, while spring sowing is ongoing. Globally, record-high temperatures since the latter half of 2023 reflect the influences of the strong 2023-2024 El Niño and climate change. Heat extremes will very likely continue during 2024, impacting crop development and possibly constraining the yield potential. With global temperatures at unseen levels, the impact of a potential return of La Niña on agricultural production is uncertain. La Niña events have historically led to slightly lower than average global yields for soybeans and slightly higher than average global yields for rice.

FAO Food Price Index Rose Slightly in March

After seven months of declines, the FAO Food Price Index rose slightly in March due to increased vegetable oil, dairy, and meat prices. The Index remained 7.7 percent below its March 2023 levels.

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