The AMIS Market Monitor provides a synopsis of major developments in international commodity markets, focusing on wheat, maize, rice and soybeans. The analysis is a collective assessment of the member organizations of AMIS concerning the international market situation and outlook.

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Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor June 2024

/sites/default/files/2024-06/AMIS_Market_Monitor_June_2024.pdf
Jun 6th, 2024
The month of May marks the release of the first forecasts for global cereal production, but with many crops yet to be planted in the Northern hemisphere, there is a high level of uncertainty with these projections. This year, the validity of the first forecasts for 2024/25 wheat production is already being tested, as drought and prolonged frost in key producing areas of the Russian Federation have constrained yield prospects. Consequently, world wheat export prices surged during May on deepening production worries, centered on the Black Sea region. Wheat, most of which is consumed as food with only a limited number of substitutes, is being watched very closely, particularly by importing countries from a food security perspective.

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor May 2024

/sites/default/files/2024-05/AMIS_Market_Monitor_May_2024.pdf
May 2nd, 2024
Harvesting of maize and soybeans in the southern hemisphere is progressing, but lack of rain earlier in the season and high temperatures have constrained yields. In the northern hemisphere, winter crops also suffered from insufficient precipitations, while spring sowing is ongoing. Globally, record-high temperatures since the latter half of 2023 reflect the influences of the strong 2023-2024 El Niño and climate change. Heat extremes will very likely continue during 2024, impacting crop development and possibly constraining the yield potential. With global temperatures at unseen levels, the impact of a potential return of La Niña on agricultural production is uncertain. La Niña events have historically led to slightly lower than average global yields for soybeans and slightly higher than average global yields for rice.

FAO Food Price Index Rose Slightly in March

After seven months of declines, the FAO Food Price Index rose slightly in March due to increased vegetable oil, dairy, and meat prices. The Index remained 7.7 percent below its March 2023 levels.

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor April 2024

/sites/default/files/2024-04/AMIS_Market_Monitor_April_2024.pdf
Apr 4th, 2024
The easing of maize and wheat export prices is helping to mitigate rising freight and insurance costs associated with shipping disruptions for importers. Conversely, farmers have adapted to reduced profit margins by transitioning to alternative crops. As a result,
winter wheat plantings for harvest in 2024 decreased in Ukraine (areas under Government control), and the United States. Spring plantings might make up the decline in some countries. Similarly, there is a likelihood of a shift away from maize toward soybeans,
made more attractive by increasing crude oil prices which improve prospects for biofuels demand. Although overall crop conditions at the end of March do not raise alarm, market-driven adjustments to planting areas could impact sentiment on the global markets should significant weather events occur during the rest of the season.

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor March 2024

/sites/default/files/2024-03/AMIS_Market_Monitor_March_2024.pdf
Mar 7th, 2024
In February 2024, food commodity markets continued to sustain their relative calmness, despite the presence of external shocks including shipping disruptions and farmers’ protests in several countries. Wheat, maize and soybean export prices declined further, reaching their lowest levels over the past two years. While rice prices eased as Lunar New Year Holidays curtailed trade in some parts of the world, they remained almost a third higher than their levels a year ago. Following record-breaking temperatures in January reflecting the influences of the strong 2023-2024 El Niño event and the impacts of climate change, February was also exceptionally warm, speeding up crop development in many parts. Winter wheat crops in the northern hemisphere are beginning to break dormancy, while harvesting of maize and soybeans continued in the southern hemisphere.
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Source:
FAO News Media

Amid conflict and climate risks, FAO highlights crucial role of AMIS in global food market stability

In the face of escalating conflicts, economic slowdowns and downturns, and the growing climate crisis, the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) plays a crucial role in enhancing transparency and policy coordination in international food markets, Maximo Torero, Chief Economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), has said.

Speaking at an expert panel at the Global Forum for Food and Agriculture (GFFA) 2024 in Berlin, he stressed how AMIS has helped to prevent unexpected price hikes and strengthen global food security.

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor February 2024

/sites/default/files/2024-02/AMIS_Market_Monitor_February_2024.pdf
Feb 1st, 2024
With the onset of 2024, commodity markets remain relatively calm, at least compared to the recent past. Wheat, maize and soybean export prices were at their lowest of the past two years. Rice prices remain the exception: due to El Niño-induced production shortfalls and India's ongoing export restrictions, these are almost a third higher than they were one year ago. Markets will be watching the development of Brazil soybean production which have been under some stress due to below normal rainfall. Yet, potential for shocks abounds: shipping disruptions in the Panama Canal, the Red Sea and many inland waterways could threaten established trade routes, and alter the competitiveness of different origins, with implications for planting intentions for 2024 crops.

FAO Food Price Index, AMIS Market Monitor See Reduction in Price Volatility

The FAO Food Price Index remained stable in November, with increased vegetable oil, dairy, and sugar prices balanced by falling cereal and meat prices. The November 2023 Index was 10.7 percent below its 2022 level.

The Cereal Price Index decreased by 3 percent in November to reach nearly 20 percent below its November 2022 level. Maize prices fell most significantly in November due to increased sales in Argentina and higher seasonal supplies in the U.S. Wheat prices also fell, albeit less sharply, due to ongoing harvests in Russia. Rice prices remained stable in November.

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