The war in Ukraine and India's export restrictions on rice have dominated commodity news in recent weeks. In late July, India announced a ban on non-Basmati rice exports and has since then imposed further restrictions on Basmati and parboiled rice exports. Those restrictions, combined with El Niño-related concerns over rice production in the region, have roiled rice markets, with Thai prices rising 20 percent since last month. Wheat prices are still under pressure from abundant Black Sea exports at competitive prices, but markets remain volatile as the termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and Russian attacks on Ukraine export facilities have heightened uncertainty. Global soybean and maize production prospects are improved this year with some stock rebuilding anticipated despite dryness in North America, Argentina and parts of Europe.

The fate of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is again in jeopardy. The collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam last month has flooded cropland along the Dnipro River and disrupted irrigation. Meanwhile, the ammonia pipeline from the Russian Federation to the Ukrainian port of Pivdennyi has also been damaged. The pipeline has not been in operation since the start of the war; however, its reopening has been a key demand of the Russian Federation to renew the grain deal. While these events are not likely to have major impacts on grain supplies in the short term, they further increase tensions that could result in a termination of the agreement later this month. This would reduce Black Sea exports and further reduce Ukraine production incentives.

While agricultural prices have declined over the past 12 months, food price inflation remains high. FAO's food price index, a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities, is down 20 percent from year-ago levels. Yet, double-digit food inflation rates are reported in many countries around the world. Food inflation remains elevated in part because of the strong US dollar, which has kept commodity prices high in local currencies, and because post-farm gate costs such as energy, transportation, and food manufacturing costs, which account for a large share of the retail price, remain high due to core inflationary pressures. The poor suffer the most from high food prices as they spend high shares of their incomes on food and have weak capacity to cope with price shocks.

While international wheat, maize and vegetable oil prices registered record highs and much volatility last year, rice markets kept relatively calm in view of large global supplies. Over the past seven months, however, rice prices have been generally on a rise and in some suppliers increased by more than 25 percent. The rapid emergence of El Niño, a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole raises concerns about possible impacts on rice production in South and Southeast Asia. Much will depend on the timing and strength of El Niño, especially as to whether or not normal monsoon patterns will be affected. Over the next couple of months, these climatic developments will be closely monitored by AMIS.

Over the past 10 months, world prices of most grains and oilseeds have fallen back to levels prior to the war in Ukraine. Likewise, volatility in prices has also declined considerably from recent highs. With the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, there is hope that the world is recovering from the price shocks of the past year. Yet, while prices have fallen in international markets, they have frequently remained high at local level, particularly in net food importing developping countries reflecting the weakening of their currencies against the US dollar. As a result, food price inflation is still a serious concern in many countries, also because post-farm gate costs for shipping and processing remain subject to inflationary pressures.

With no end in sight to the war in Ukraine and threats of further escalation, uncertainty continues to hang over agricultural markets. Supplies are tight. Reduced plantings in Ukraine mean that other countries will need to produce additional grains and oilseeds to help rebuild global stocks and moderate price levels. The world has so far been relatively fortunate: a combination of good weather and strong producer supply response has kept market prices from rebounding back to the high levels of early 2022. However, tight stocks will mean increased price volatility, particularly during periods of uncertainty such as planting times and the Northern Hemisphere growing seasons. In addition, uncertainty over events like the renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative will continue to roil markets.

Fertilizer prices have declined by more than 40 percent since hitting record (nominal) highs last spring, especially due to recent drops in natural gas prices and fertilizer plants reopening in Europe. Though prices remain almost twice the level of two years ago, this development is welcome news for producers making input purchases this spring and should improve profitability margins for many crops. With the price decline most prominent for nitrogenous fertilizers, this could make nitrogen-intensive crops such as wheat and maize more attractive planting choices than they were last spring. Lower prices could also encourage higher application rates, particularly in developing countries where fertilizer use is relatively low and where recent high prices have further reduced application rates.

With northern hemisphere grain and oilseed crops largely harvested, and the Black Sea Grain Initiative extended for another 120 days, market attention is shifting to growing conditions in the southern hemisphere. The third consecutive year of La Niña has prolonged drought conditions in Argentina, resulting in sharply reduced wheat production prospects relative to last year. By contrast, La Niña has resulted in abnormally wet conditions in Australia, which expects aboveaverage wheat yields; however, concerns remain over the quality of the crop, which could impact prices for milling wheat. Planting progress for South American maize and soybeans are on pace, but it is still too early to tell whether yields will return to more normal levels after last year's drought-reduced production.