With the onset of 2024, commodity markets remain relatively calm, at least compared to the recent past. Wheat, maize and soybean export prices were at their lowest of the past two years. Rice prices remain the exception: due to El Niño-induced production shortfalls and India's ongoing export restrictions, these are almost a third higher than they were one year ago. Markets will be watching the development of Brazil soybean production which have been under some stress due to below normal rainfall. Yet, potential for shocks abounds: shipping disruptions in the Panama Canal, the Red Sea and many inland waterways could threaten established trade routes, and alter the competitiveness of different origins, with implications for planting intentions for 2024 crops.

As the year draws to a close, commodity markets have quieted down from the more volatile price movements that have characterized the past two years. With the exception of rice, prices for most grains and oilseeds are 15 to 20 percent below January 2022 levels. Yet, even rice prices have fallen back from recent highs as global production prospects look more favorable than they did in late summer. Despite a slowing global economy, demand for agricultural
products remains strong and is expected to hit record levels in the 2023/24 marketing season. Lower prices mean reduced profitability for grain and oilseed farmers though lower costs for fuel and fertilizer will help mitigate that impact.

After nearing record levels following the outbreak of war in Ukraine, implied volatility of maize and soybean is now below the historical average. This reflects large global harvests and large estimated closing stocks. By contrast, wheat prices have remained highly volatile, largely linked to uncertainty caused by the conflict. Ukraine's wheat production this year was 35 percent lower than pre-war levels and prospects for a rebound in 2024 are unlikely. While shipping has resumed out of the Black Sea ports through the so-called humanitarian corridor, persistent attacks on export infrastructure continue to roil markets. Meanwhile, rice prices have declined in the past few weeks, reflecting a smaller-than-anticipated impact of El Niño on production, and prompting some countries to reverse market-distorting policies.

Rice continues to be in the news. Since India banned non-Basmati rice exports in July, rice prices have risen markedly, raising concerns that other countries might follow suit and also restrict trade. As a case in point, Myanmar, the world's sixth largest rice exporter, announced new export licensing requirements while the Philippines has put in place price ceilings to cap retail rice prices. All of these actions have occurred as a strengthening El Niño threatens to cut rice production of key Asian suppliers and push prices higher. ASEAN leaders have recognized the threat to food security and recently confirmed their commitment to keep the flow of agricultural products unimpeded and refrain from using 'unjustified' trade barriers. AMIS will continue working with its participating countries to promote the open flow of food commodities.

The war in Ukraine and India's export restrictions on rice have dominated commodity news in recent weeks. In late July, India announced a ban on non-Basmati rice exports and has since then imposed further restrictions on Basmati and parboiled rice exports. Those restrictions, combined with El Niño-related concerns over rice production in the region, have roiled rice markets, with Thai prices rising 20 percent since last month. Wheat prices are still under pressure from abundant Black Sea exports at competitive prices, but markets remain volatile as the termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and Russian attacks on Ukraine export facilities have heightened uncertainty. Global soybean and maize production prospects are improved this year with some stock rebuilding anticipated despite dryness in North America, Argentina and parts of Europe.

The fate of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is again in jeopardy. The collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam last month has flooded cropland along the Dnipro River and disrupted irrigation. Meanwhile, the ammonia pipeline from the Russian Federation to the Ukrainian port of Pivdennyi has also been damaged. The pipeline has not been in operation since the start of the war; however, its reopening has been a key demand of the Russian Federation to renew the grain deal. While these events are not likely to have major impacts on grain supplies in the short term, they further increase tensions that could result in a termination of the agreement later this month. This would reduce Black Sea exports and further reduce Ukraine production incentives.

While agricultural prices have declined over the past 12 months, food price inflation remains high. FAO's food price index, a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities, is down 20 percent from year-ago levels. Yet, double-digit food inflation rates are reported in many countries around the world. Food inflation remains elevated in part because of the strong US dollar, which has kept commodity prices high in local currencies, and because post-farm gate costs such as energy, transportation, and food manufacturing costs, which account for a large share of the retail price, remain high due to core inflationary pressures. The poor suffer the most from high food prices as they spend high shares of their incomes on food and have weak capacity to cope with price shocks.

While international wheat, maize and vegetable oil prices registered record highs and much volatility last year, rice markets kept relatively calm in view of large global supplies. Over the past seven months, however, rice prices have been generally on a rise and in some suppliers increased by more than 25 percent. The rapid emergence of El Niño, a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole raises concerns about possible impacts on rice production in South and Southeast Asia. Much will depend on the timing and strength of El Niño, especially as to whether or not normal monsoon patterns will be affected. Over the next couple of months, these climatic developments will be closely monitored by AMIS.