The AMIS Market Monitor provides a synopsis of major developments in international commodity markets, focusing on wheat, maize, rice and soybeans. The analysis is a collective assessment of the member organizations of AMIS concerning the international market situation and outlook.
Category Type
Topic
Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor March 2024
/sites/default/files/2024-03/AMIS_Market_Monitor_March_2024.pdf
Mar 7th, 2024
In February 2024, food commodity markets continued to sustain their relative calmness, despite the presence of external shocks including shipping disruptions and farmers’ protests in several countries. Wheat, maize and soybean export prices declined further, reaching their lowest levels over the past two years. While rice prices eased as Lunar New Year Holidays curtailed trade in some parts of the world, they remained almost a third higher than their levels a year ago. Following record-breaking temperatures in January reflecting the influences of the strong 2023-2024 El Niño event and the impacts of climate change, February was also exceptionally warm, speeding up crop development in many parts. Winter wheat crops in the northern hemisphere are beginning to break dormancy, while harvesting of maize and soybeans continued in the southern hemisphere.
Amid conflict and climate risks, FAO highlights crucial role of AMIS in global food market stability
In the face of escalating conflicts, economic slowdowns and downturns, and the growing climate crisis, the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) plays a crucial role in enhancing transparency and policy coordination in international food markets, Maximo Torero, Chief Economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), has said.
Speaking at an expert panel at the Global Forum for Food and Agriculture (GFFA) 2024 in Berlin, he stressed how AMIS has helped to prevent unexpected price hikes and strengthen global food security.
Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor February 2024
/sites/default/files/2024-02/AMIS_Market_Monitor_February_2024.pdf
Feb 1st, 2024
With the onset of 2024, commodity markets remain relatively calm, at least compared to the recent past. Wheat, maize and soybean export prices were at their lowest of the past two years. Rice prices remain the exception: due to El Niño-induced production shortfalls and India's ongoing export restrictions, these are almost a third higher than they were one year ago. Markets will be watching the development of Brazil soybean production which have been under some stress due to below normal rainfall. Yet, potential for shocks abounds: shipping disruptions in the Panama Canal, the Red Sea and many inland waterways could threaten established trade routes, and alter the competitiveness of different origins, with implications for planting intentions for 2024 crops.
FAO Food Price Index, AMIS Market Monitor See Reduction in Price Volatility
The FAO Food Price Index remained stable in November, with increased vegetable oil, dairy, and sugar prices balanced by falling cereal and meat prices. The November 2023 Index was 10.7 percent below its 2022 level.
The Cereal Price Index decreased by 3 percent in November to reach nearly 20 percent below its November 2022 level. Maize prices fell most significantly in November due to increased sales in Argentina and higher seasonal supplies in the U.S. Wheat prices also fell, albeit less sharply, due to ongoing harvests in Russia. Rice prices remained stable in November.
Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor December 2023
/sites/default/files/2023-12/AMIS_Market_Monitor_12_07_2023.pdf
Dec 7th, 2023
As the year draws to a close, commodity markets have quieted down from the more volatile price movements that have characterized the past two years. With the exception of rice, prices for most grains and oilseeds are 15 to 20 percent below January 2022 levels. Yet, even rice prices have fallen back from recent highs as global production prospects look more favorable than they did in late summer. Despite a slowing global economy, demand for agricultural
products remains strong and is expected to hit record levels in the 2023/24 marketing season. Lower prices mean reduced profitability for grain and oilseed farmers though lower costs for fuel and fertilizer will help mitigate that impact.
products remains strong and is expected to hit record levels in the 2023/24 marketing season. Lower prices mean reduced profitability for grain and oilseed farmers though lower costs for fuel and fertilizer will help mitigate that impact.
Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor November 2023
/sites/default/files/2023-12/AMIS_Market_Monitor_November_2023.pdf
Nov 2nd, 2023
After nearing record levels following the outbreak of war in Ukraine, implied volatility of maize and soybean is now below the historical average. This reflects large global harvests and large estimated closing stocks. By contrast, wheat prices have remained highly volatile, largely linked to uncertainty caused by the conflict. Ukraine's wheat production this year was 35 percent lower than pre-war levels and prospects for a rebound in 2024 are unlikely. While shipping has resumed out of the Black Sea ports through the so-called humanitarian corridor, persistent attacks on export infrastructure continue to roil markets. Meanwhile, rice prices have declined in the past few weeks, reflecting a smaller-than-anticipated impact of El Niño on production, and prompting some countries to reverse market-distorting policies.
FAO Food price Index Declines in October, But Volatility in Some Markets Remains
Food prices continued to decline, albeit more slowly, in October, according to the latest FAO Food Price Index. The Index was down 0.5 percent from September and 10.9 percent from October 2022.
Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor October 2023
/sites/default/files/2023-12/AMIS_Market_Monitor_October_2023.pdf
Oct 5th, 2023
Rice continues to be in the news. Since India banned non-Basmati rice exports in July, rice prices have risen markedly, raising concerns that other countries might follow suit and also restrict trade. As a case in point, Myanmar, the world's sixth largest rice exporter, announced new export licensing requirements while the Philippines has put in place price ceilings to cap retail rice prices. All of these actions have occurred as a strengthening El Niño threatens to cut rice production of key Asian suppliers and push prices higher. ASEAN leaders have recognized the threat to food security and recently confirmed their commitment to keep the flow of agricultural products unimpeded and refrain from using 'unjustified' trade barriers. AMIS will continue working with its participating countries to promote the open flow of food commodities.
Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor September 2023
/sites/default/files/2023-09/AMIS_Market_Monitor_August_2023.pdf
Sep 12th, 2023
The war in Ukraine and India's export restrictions on rice have dominated commodity news in recent weeks. In late July, India announced a ban on non-Basmati rice exports and has since then imposed further restrictions on Basmati and parboiled rice exports. Those restrictions, combined with El Niño-related concerns over rice production in the region, have roiled rice markets, with Thai prices rising 20 percent since last month. Wheat prices are still under pressure from abundant Black Sea exports at competitive prices, but markets remain volatile as the termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and Russian attacks on Ukraine export facilities have heightened uncertainty. Global soybean and maize production prospects are improved this year with some stock rebuilding anticipated despite dryness in North America, Argentina and parts of Europe.
Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor July 2023
/sites/default/files/2023-07/AMIS_Market_Monitor_July_2023.pdf
Jul 6th, 2023
The fate of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is again in jeopardy. The collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam last month has flooded cropland along the Dnipro River and disrupted irrigation. Meanwhile, the ammonia pipeline from the Russian Federation to the Ukrainian port of Pivdennyi has also been damaged. The pipeline has not been in operation since the start of the war; however, its reopening has been a key demand of the Russian Federation to renew the grain deal. While these events are not likely to have major impacts on grain supplies in the short term, they further increase tensions that could result in a termination of the agreement later this month. This would reduce Black Sea exports and further reduce Ukraine production incentives.