The AMIS Market Monitor provides a synopsis of major developments in international commodity markets, focusing on wheat, maize, rice and soybeans. The analysis is a collective assessment of the member organizations of AMIS concerning the international market situation and outlook.
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AMIS sees strong potential staple crop production in 2025, but trade, climate uncertainties remain
The FAO Food Price Index fell marginally in May but remained 6 percent higher than its May 2024 level. The decline was driven by falling cereals, sugar, and vegetable oils prices.
Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor June 2025
/sites/default/files/2025-06/AMIS_Market_Monitor_June_2025.pdf
Jun 6th, 2025
The June edition of the Market Monitor introduces the first complete forecasts for global cereal balances. Preliminary estimates suggest a possible recovery in wheat production along with notable increases in maize, rice, and soybean outputs. However, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these projections as many crops are yet to be planted in the Northern hemisphere. Although May rainfall provided some relief, drought and high temperatures remain significant risks. Global temperatures for April 2025 were the second warmest on record, and forecasts indicate potential heat waves in several key producing areas. Increased temperatures may contribute to higher year-to-year yield variability – as shown on the example of maize - affecting production levels. Furthermore, changes in trade policies could influence the global trade outlook.
Uncertainties over Trade Continue to Raise Concerns for Food, Fertilizer Markets
The FAO Food Price Index rose 1 percent in April, driven by increasing cereal, dairy, and meat price. While the Index was 7.6 percent higher than its April 2024 level, it remains nearly 20 percent lower than the record reached in March 2022.
Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor May 2025
/sites/default/files/2025-05/AMIS_Market_Monitor_May_2025.pdf
May 2nd, 2025
Harvesting of maize and soybeans is progressing with excellent yield potential in parts of Brazil yet elsewhere in the southern hemisphere crops have suffered from hot and dry weather. In the northern hemisphere, winter crops also experienced insufficient precipitations, while spring sowing is ongoing. Seasonally improving palm oil outputs in Southeast Asia have erased the unusual price premium over competing oils at some destinations. Although overall price movements across commodities remained relatively contained, market participants are closely observing rapid policy developments related to tariff announcements and possible retaliatory measures. The changing trade landscape will also impact the overall macroeconomic environment affecting energy prices, exchange rates, and growth prospects, with its own implications for agricultural production and trade.
Commodity Prices Stable in March, But Concerns over Trade Remain
The FAO Food Price Index remained stable in March, with falling cereal and sugar prices balancing rising meat and vegetable oil prices. The Index was almost 7 percent higher than its March 2024 level but still remains significantly below March 2022 levels.
Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor April 2025
/sites/default/files/2025-04/AMIS_Market_Monitor_April_2025.pdf
Apr 4th, 2025
Winter wheat crops in the Northern Hemisphere are breaking dormancy, while maize and soybean harvesting continues in the Southern Hemisphere. In March 2025, average export prices for grains and soybeans exhibited a mostly weaker tone, attributed to easing concerns about crop conditions in major producing countries and geopolitical developments, including escalating international trade tensions. These tensions and trade policy changes create uncertainties for producers, traders, and consumers; they pose risks of retaliatory measures and affect markets with implications for food security. Well-functioning markets are crucial for meeting food demand and ensuring access. As in past episodes of volatility and uncertainty, AMIS strives to maintain and improve transparency and ease access to information, benefiting market actors and policy-makers alike.
Food, Fertilizer Prices Continue to Rise Amid Trade Uncertainties
Rising vegetable oil, cereal, sugar, and dairy prices drove the FAO Food Price Index up by 1.6 percent in February. However, overall prices remain almost 21 percent lower than the peak seen in March 2022.
Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor March 2025
/sites/default/files/2025-03/AMIS_Market_Monitor_March_2025.pdf
Mar 7th, 2025
In February 2025, crop conditions remained generally favorable across most of the globe with some pockets of concern, most notably for maize in South America where above-average temperatures are forecasted, raising the risk of heat stress during the crop's reproductive development. Compared to February 2024, maize prices were almost 25 percent higher, while rice prices reached two year lows. FAO’s preliminary forecast for global wheat production in 2025 indicates a modest increase, with the world output projected at 796 million tonnes, a near 1 percent year on-year rise. Markets continue to be affected by uncertainty regarding international trade relations, with trade policy changes in the United States triggering responses from partners and potentially altering the global trade landscape.
Most Commodity Prices Decline, But Concerns Over Trade, Climate Remain
The FAO Food Price Index declined by 1.6 percent from December. While the Index was 6.2 percent higher than its January 2024 level, it remains 22 percent below its peak of March 2022.
Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor February 2025
/sites/default/files/2025-02/AMIS_Market_Monitor_February_2025.pdf
Feb 7th, 2025
Except for maize, where international export prices reached a 15-month peak amidst supply concerns, global prices of AMIS crops are currently lower than they were a year ago. However, concerns about winter wheat crop conditions in parts of the EU, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and North America provide support to quotations in some origins.
Markets are also watching for potential changes in US trade policies and the responses from trading partners. This month's feature article reveals no evidence of long-term global yield growth deceleration. Instead, slow yield growth in certain commodities, regions, or countries appears to have been offset by accelerated growth elsewhere.
Yet, caution is in order: Global temperatures in 2024 were the warmest since records began in 1850, necessitating developments of cultivars resilient to temperature and precipitation variations.
Markets are also watching for potential changes in US trade policies and the responses from trading partners. This month's feature article reveals no evidence of long-term global yield growth deceleration. Instead, slow yield growth in certain commodities, regions, or countries appears to have been offset by accelerated growth elsewhere.
Yet, caution is in order: Global temperatures in 2024 were the warmest since records began in 1850, necessitating developments of cultivars resilient to temperature and precipitation variations.