Market Structure

The FAO Food Price Index fell in January for the fifth straight month, to nearly 23 percent below the record high seen in March 2022. Sugar, meat, and dairy prices drove the decline. The Cereal Price Index rose marginally in January but is still nearly 4 percent below its January 2025 level. Wheat prices fell 0.4 percent, with strong global supplies balancing growing demand and concerns about weather in several major producing regions. Strong supplies drove maize prices down slightly as well.

The FAO Food Price Index fell for the third month in a row in November, declining by 1.2 percent. Prices declined for all commodities except cereals. The Index in November stood 2.1 percent below its year-earlier level and nearly 22 percent below the peak of March 2022.

The FAO Food Price Index rose 1 percent in April, driven by increasing cereal, dairy, and meat price. While the Index was 7.6 percent higher than its April 2024 level, it remains nearly 20 percent lower than the record reached in March 2022.

First in a blog series examining the potential consequences of the newly proposed U.S. tariffs for global agrifood trade.

Fertilizer prices experienced a significant surge in 2021, driven by the post-COVID 19 global economic recovery. Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine propelled prices even higher. Broad economic sanctions on key fertilizer exporters Russia and Belarus exempted agricultural products but triggered further economic disruptions. Overall, the conflict heightened market uncertainties regarding the availability of potash, phosphate, and nitrogen-based fertilizers in international trade.