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FAO Food Price Index Increases for First Time in Five Months

The FAO Food Price Index rose in February for the first time in five months, driven by increasing cereal, meat, and vegetable oil prices. Despite the increase, however, the Index remains nearly 35 percent below the record high reached in March 2022.The Cereal Price Index rose slightly more than 1 percent in February but remained 3.5 percent below its February 2025 level. Wheat prices increased due to concerns about cold weather in Europe and the United States, as well as transportation disruptions in Russia and the Black Sea region.

FAO Food Price Index Declined in January, Pointing to Cautiously Optimistic 2026 Outlook

The FAO Food Price Index fell in January for the fifth straight month, to nearly 23 percent below the record high seen in March 2022. Sugar, meat, and dairy prices drove the decline. The Cereal Price Index rose marginally in January but is still nearly 4 percent below its January 2025 level. Wheat prices fell 0.4 percent, with strong global supplies balancing growing demand and concerns about weather in several major producing regions. Strong supplies drove maize prices down slightly as well.

FAO Food Price Index Declines for Third Consecutive Month

The FAO Food Price Index fell for the third month in a row in November, declining by 1.2 percent. Prices declined for all commodities except cereals. The Index in November stood 2.1 percent below its year-earlier level and nearly 22 percent below the peak of March 2022.

When prices spike: Identifying excessive volatility in fertilizer markets

Dec 9th, 2025
Sharp and volatile fertilizer price movements can hinder adoption and reduce agricultural productivity, especially among vulnerable smallholders. Using a nonparametric location-scale approach to model price returns, we quantify the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) — the high return threshold exceeded with low probability — to identify excessive price spikes in potash, urea, and di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) markets. We use the bias-corrected estimator from Martins-Filho et al. (2018) and propose a simpler estimator based on Hill (1975). Backtesting results indicate superior performance of the Hill-based estimator, supporting its value as a convenient method for detecting unusual fertilizer price surges amid recurring global volatility.

Food Prices are Likely to Remain High and Volatile

How do wars, tariff disputes and currency fluctuations affect the international trade in agricultural products? Poor countries suffer disproportionately from inflation risks and food insecurity.

 

Consumers around the world have seen food prices going up ever since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. While food price inflation has slowed more recently, concerns over the rising cost of living have not gone away. Why is this and should we expect the cost of our daily meals to go up even more in the foreseeable future?

Global food price shocks

Cereal, Vegetable Oil, and Fertilizer Prices Continue Decline in September: FAO Food Price Index and AMIS Market Monitor Released

Reductions in cereal and vegetable oil prices contributed to a slight decline in the FAO Food Price Index in September. The Index remains nearly 20 percent below its March 2022 peak but rose 3.4 percent from September 2024.

Hunger declines globally in 2025 but remains above pre-pandemic levels: New State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World Report released

With the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) deadline of 2030 fast approaching, the clock is ticking for the world to meet its goal of eradicating hunger and food insecurity. Some progress was made toward this milestone in 2024; however, hunger levels remain above their pre-pandemic levels, according to the 2025 State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World report.

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