How do wars, tariff disputes and currency fluctuations affect the international trade in agricultural products? Poor countries suffer disproportionately from inflation risks and food insecurity.

Consumers around the world have seen food prices going up ever since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. While food price inflation has slowed more recently, concerns over the rising cost of living have not gone away. Why is this and should we expect the cost of our daily meals to go up even more in the foreseeable future?

Global food price shocks

Reductions in cereal and vegetable oil prices contributed to a slight decline in the FAO Food Price Index in September. The Index remains nearly 20 percent below its March 2022 peak but rose 3.4 percent from September 2024.

Global staple food prices remained largely stable in August, according to the latest FAO Food Price Index. The Index was nearly 7 percent higher than its August 2024 level but still well below the record high seen in March 2022.

The FAO Food Price Index rose by 1.6 percent in July based on increasing meat and vegetable oil prices. The Index remains 7.6 percent higher than its 2024 level but nearly 19 percent below its March 2022 peak.

With the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) deadline of 2030 fast approaching, the clock is ticking for the world to meet its goal of eradicating hunger and food insecurity. Some progress was made toward this milestone in 2024; however, hunger levels remain above their pre-pandemic levels, according to the 2025 State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World report.

The FAO Food Price Index rose marginally in June to reach nearly 6 percent above its June 2024 level. Declining cereal and sugar prices were balanced by increases in meat, dairy, and vegetable oil prices. The Index remained more than 20 percent below the high seen in March 2022.

The realities of a changing climate are becoming increasingly clear, with temperatures rising around the world and extreme weather events, like flooding and droughts, becoming more and more frequent. April 2025 was the second hottest April globally on record, and evidence suggests such anomalous high temperatures could become the norm rather than the exception.

In recent years, it has become increasingly recognized that true food and nutrition security depend not just on consumption of an adequate caloric quantity of food but also on consumption of the right types of food. A healthy diet—which the WHO and FAO define as one characterized by adequate, balanced, moderate, and diverse consumption of safe foods and beverages—is essential in supporting long-term physical and cognitive health, development, and well-being and in preventing diseases and damaging nutrient imbalances.

The FAO Food Price Index fell marginally in May but remained 6 percent higher than its May 2024 level. The decline was driven by falling cereals, sugar, and vegetable oils prices.