Cereal, Vegetable Oil, and Fertilizer Prices Continue Decline in September: FAO Food Price Index and AMIS Market Monitor Released
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Reductions in cereal and vegetable oil prices contributed to a slight decline in the FAO Food Price Index in September. The Index remains nearly 20 percent below its March 2022 peak but rose 3.4 percent from September 2024.
The Cereal Price Index fell by 0.6 percent from August 2025 and 7.5 percent from September 2024. Wheat prices fell due to declining demand and abundant harvests in several key producing countries. Abundant export supplies also drove maize prices down, as did a suspension of export taxes in Argentina. Rice prices fell by 0.5 percent based on ample supplies and slowing demand.
The Vegetable Oil Price Index fell by 0.7 percent in September but remains 18 percent above the previous year. Soybean prices declined due to strong supplies from Argentina, coupled with that country’s suspension of export taxes on the commodity. Palm oil prices also fell due to increased stocks.
The Dairy and Sugar Price Indices declined by 2.6 and 4.1 percent in September, respectively. Dairy prices remain 9 percent higher than their September 2024 levels, while sugar prices were down 21.3 percent from the previous year to reach their lowest level since March 2021. The Meat Price Index reached a new high in September, up 0.7 percent from August and 6.6 percent from September 2024.
The latest AMIS Market Monitor also reports generally declining commodity prices amid adequate supplies. However, trade tensions remain, which could impact farmers’ planting decisions in the coming seasons.
Wheat production prospects for 2025 reached a new high in September due to higher yields in several major producing countries. Wheat utilization forecasts remained generally steady, while trade forecasts increased due to higher-than-expected exports from Australia and the U.S. Total wheat ending stocks are expected to be higher than opening levels based on strong harvests in several producing countries.
Maize production prospects also increased in September, with total production expected to be 6.5 percent higher than the previous year. Utilization forecasts also increased due to higher feed use, while trade prospects rose slightly. Total maize ending stock forecasts increased based on rising stocks in Brazil and the U.S.
Rice production was forecast up in September, while utilization forecasts remained steady with overall use above 2024/2025. Rice trade is expected to be below the previous year due to a combination of good local harvests and remaining stocks from large purchases in 2025. Total rice ending stock prospects rose in September.
Soybean production forecasts rose slightly due to favorable growing conditions in Brazile. Utilization prospects remained stable, while trade forecasts rose slightly based on higher exports from South America. Total soybean ending stock forecasts remained stable in September.
Fertilizer prices generally fell in September due to both falling demand and increased export availability. Urea and phosphate prices both declined, although the report points out that supply limitations make a longer term decline in phosphate prices unlikely. Potash prices remained steady in September. Natural gas prices also remained stable, while ammonia prices rose due to limited availability.