FAO Food Price Index, AMIS Market Monitor See Generally Declining Commodity Prices in October

The FAO Food Price Index fell 1.6 percent in October, driven by lower cereals, dairy, meat, and sugar prices. The October Index was 21 percent below its March 2022 peak.

The Cereal Price Index declined by 1.3 percent to reach nearly 10 percent below its October 2024 level. Wheat prices fell by 1 percent due to ample supplies and strong production and planting prospects in the southern and northern hemispheres, respectively. Maize prices also declined slightly, although the decrease was tempered by potentially reduced yields in the European Union and U.S., as well as by updated trade agreements between China and the U.S. The Rice Price Index fell by 2.5 percent, driven by strong market competition and anticipated strong harvests in several exporting countries.

The Vegetable Oil Price Index rose by nearly 1 percent in October to reach its highest level since June 2022. Palm oil prices rose due to the anticipated consequences of Indonesia’s plan to increase its biodiesel blending mandates in 2026; this policy shift would likely reduce exportable supplies from the country. Soy oil prices also increased due to rising domestic demand in Brazil and the U.S. which reduced exportable supplies.

The Meat, Sugar, and Dairy Indices all also declined in October, by 2, 5.3, and 3.4 percent, respectively.

The November AMIS Market Monitor reflects similar trends, seeing prices for all major commodities decline in October except soybeans. However, remaining policy uncertainty and constantly shifting trade policies, coupled with the ongoing shutdown of the federal government in the U.S., continue to pose challenges for markets. In the face of such challenges, the report emphasizes the need for policymakers to avoid knee-jerk reactions, such as export restrictions, to protect domestic markets and food supplies. Instead, the report states, increased transparency and reliable monitoring of food supplies is needed to ensure functioning global markets and food systems.

Wheat production forecasts for 2025 rose in October to reach a record high. Utilization forecasts fell slightly due to reduced feed use in Russia; however, utilization is still expected to remain above the previous year’s level. Wheat trade expectations for 2025-2026 remained generally steady, while ending stocks are expected to be higher than their opening levels due to anticipated higher production from several major producing countries.

Maize production forecasts also increased due to higher estimates from South Africa and Ukraine. Maize utilization expectations fell slightly, but higher feed use is still expected to drive utilization above the previous year’s level. Maize trade is forecast to be slightly down from the previous year, while global maize ending stocks are expected to be above their opening levels.

 Rice production expectations remained stable in October. Utilization forecasts increased due to rising food use expectations throughout Africa. Rice trade forecasts also increased based on higher expected purchases by Vietnam and Nigeria; however, overall trade for 2026 is expected to fall by about 1.1 percent. Global rice ending stocks are expected to hit a record peak based on stock accumulations by Bangladesh, Brazil, and China.  

Soybean production forecasts increased slightly in October, with production potentially on track to reach record levels in 2025-2026. Utilization prospects remained stable, as did trade forecasts. Trade is expected to be up by around 1 percent from the previous year. Global soybean ending stock forecasts rose in October due to upward revisions in Brazil and China.

Fertilizer prices fell in October, driven by continued high costs compared to crop prices. Trade policy shifts and the availability of exportable supplies from China continue to contribute to uncertainty across fertilizer markets. Natural gas prices rose in the U.S. but remained steady in Europe. Nitrogen prices generally declined in October, other than in India, while phosphorus prices fell due to lack of affordability driving down demand. With China potentially limiting phosphorus exports and India increasing subsidies for the fertilizer, prices could rise in the coming months. Potash prices remained stable overall.

Sara Gustafson is a freelance writer.