Early Warning Systems Hub Alerts

The humanitarian crisis in Sudan is worsening as the lean season ends and pre-harvest conditions set in, compounded by ongoing conflict, severe flooding, and rising prices. In Al Fasher, North Darfur, a blockade and continuous fighting have hindered the delivery of essential supplies, leading to alarming rates of acute malnutrition, especially in Zamzam camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs), where levels exceed the Famine threshold (IPC Phase 5).

Many civilians are fleeing nearby IDP camps to seek better protection and services in Zamzam. New assessments from FEWS NET indicate that acute food insecurity is also critical in besieged areas like Dilling and potentially Kadugli in South Kordofan. A significant portion of the population in various regions, including Greater Darfur and parts of Khartoum, faces extreme food shortages.

Recent malnutrition data shows worsening conditions across North, Central, and West Darfur, with seasonal diseases exacerbated by historic rainfall contributing to high malnutrition rates. In several localities, malnutrition levels among children under five have reached alarming rates, with some areas indicating high or extremely critical levels. Although overall mortality rates appear less severe, the ongoing food insecurity and malnutrition are likely to lead to increased hunger-related deaths.

An estimated 5.8 million people (33 percent of the analysed population) will likely experience heightened hunger between October 2024 and March 2025. The IPC projects that nearly 5.6 million people will likely experience IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 236,000 people IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). Seven additional districts are projected to move from IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) to Phase 3 – corresponding to 89 hotspot districts in Zambia. To prevent this dire situation, urgent lifesaving and livelihood assistance is imperative.

The food insecurity is primarily driven by climate related shocks and hazards that affect all districts. Noticeable among these shocks and hazards are prolonged dry spells (leading to droughts), pests and diseases, human-wildlife conflict and high input and food prices, which were mainly driven by exogenous shocks. The prolonged dry spells were largely experienced between December 2023 and March 2024. Occurrences of pest infestations included outbreaks of Fall Army Worms (FAW) and locusts in some parts of the country. Diseases such as the Cassava brown streak disease were also observed to have significantly impacted the seasonal crop performance. In addition, the country suffered an outbreak of cholera that affected over 70 districts. All these drivers of food insecurity were at the backdrop of an already volatile economy, further inundated by exogenous shocks, thereby resulting in increasing commodity prices.

Haiti continues to face a worsening humanitarian crisis, with alarming rates of armed gang violence disrupting daily life, forcing more people to flee their homes and levels of acute food insecurity to rise. Nearly half of the population (48 percent) are facing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in Crisis or worse conditions (IPC Phase 3 or above) between August 2024 and February 2025. This includes 6,000 people experiencing catastrophic levels of hunger and a collapse of their livelihoods, classified in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe). Another 2 million people (18 percent of the population analysed) are facing critical levels of acute food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), while 3.4 million people face crisis levels of acute food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). There is a 4 percent increase (1.2 million people) in the prevalence of populations in IPC Phase 3 or above compared to the previous analysis conducted for the same period in August 2023.

An estimated 1.6 million cases of children aged 6 to 59 months are expected to experience acute malnutrition between August 2024 and July 2025. This includes approximately 403,000 children likely to suffer from severe acute malnutrition (SAM). Compared to the same season last year, this represents a 14 and 22 percent increase in the burden of both global acute malnutrition (GAM) and SAM, respectively. Regarding nutrition, between October and December 2024 – a period marked by increased disease outbreaks and reduced food access – acute malnutrition is expected to worsen. In eight areas, the situation is projected to escalate to a higher IPC Phase than the current classification. In the remaining twenty-three areas, while deterioration is anticipated, conditions are likely to remain within the same IPC AMN Phase as observed between June and September 2024. This includes seven areas already classified as being in a Critical situation. The rest are expected to remain in the Serious, Alert, or Acceptable Phases, with no major deterioration foreseen.

Between July 2024 and June 2025, nearly 4.5 million children aged 6 to 59 months are facing or expected to face acute malnutrition, including approximately 1.4 million cases of severe acute malnutrition and 3.1 million cases of moderate acute malnutrition. It is also estimated that 3.7 million pregnant and breastfeeding women are facing or expected to face acute malnutrition over the same period.

The IPC Acute Malnutrition (AMN) analysis covered 358 units of analysis including health zones (301), territories (53) and provinces (4). These National-scale estimates are not comparable to those of previous years, which only covered part of the health zones.

In the current period (July – December 2024), which coincides with a drop in acute malnutrition, eight units of analysis (23 health zones) are in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical) and 49 units of analysis are in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious).

During the current period of analysis, from July to September 2024, 1.15 million people in Namibia (38 percent of the analysed population) face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) and require urgent action to reduce food gaps and protect livelihoods; all the 14 areas of analysis are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). This represents an improvement compared to what was projected in the last July 2023 analysis, where 1.44 million people (48 percent) were expected to face high levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) for the same period (July-September 2024). While the main assumption on the impact of El Nino was adjusted, the deterioration of the food security situation is still linked to the negative impact of El Nino on crop and livestock production, price shocks, economic decline and unemployment.

In the first projection period (October 2024 – March 2025), the food security situation is expected to worsen due to the start of the lean season, and seasonal price increases, where 1.26 million people (41 percent of the analysed population) are expected to be in IPC Phase 3 or above. Most of the areas are likely to remain classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

The Integrated Phase classification for Acute Malnutrition (IPC AMN) analysis conducted in July 2024 shows overall improvement. However, some areas continue to report high levels of acute malnutrition. Turkana South improved from IPC AMN Phase 5 (Extremely Critical) to IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical). Turkana Central, Turkana West, Turkana North, North Horr, Laisamis, Mandera, and Tiaty improved though within the same phase; IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical).

The nutrition situation is expected to continue improving over the projection period, although it will likely remain within the same acute malnutrition classification phases. The major improvement in reducing the prevalence of global acute malnutrition is attributed to enhanced nutrition and food security interventions in addition to improved food security characterized by positive impact of long rains in the pastoral communities associated with improved milk availability and consumption, and in agropastoral communities increased food stocks and vegetables resulting from the favorable cumulative performance from the 2023 short rains and the 2024 long rains.

Mozambique is facing high levels of acute food insecurity in the aftermath of the cyclone season, impacting 63 of the most affected districts, which represent 39 percent of the country's total.

From April to September 2024, approximately 2.79 million people are experiencing Acute Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This includes 510,000 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 2.28 million in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). An additional 3.58 million people are classified as being in Stressed conditions (IPC Phase 2).

From October 2024 to March 2025, the situation is expected to worsen, with the number of people requiring urgent assistance rising to 3.3 million. Of these, 773,000 will likely be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

This escalation is anticipated due to the depletion of food reserves, the impact of armed conflict in Cabo Delgado and parts of Nampula and Niassa, and the effects of the predicted La Niña in the southern and central regions of the country.

In FEWS NET’s drought-affected countries (excluding the DRC), needs are assessed to be 50 percent higher than the 2023/24 lean season and higher than was estimated during the peak of the last strong El Niño in 2016/17.2 Since November 2023, FEWS NET has warned that the strong El Niño event in 2023/24 would most likely result in drought-induced, below-average 2024 harvests across much of southern Africa, including in two of the region’s key suppliers, South Africa and Zambia. Indeed, a historic dry spell and above-average temperatures in early 2024 led to well below-average maize harvests across the region (Figure 1), ranging from a 10 percent deficit in South Africa to a 60 percent deficit in Zimbabwe compared to their respective five-year averages, according to national government and FEWS NET estimates. As of August, many poor households in the region have either nearly or completely exhausted their stocks from the 2024 harvest and are increasingly resorting to unsustainable coping strategies or experiencing food consumption gaps. Most of Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, southern and central Mozambique, southern Angola, and conflict-affected areas of the DRC are of highest concern. Governments, donors, humanitarian partners, and other stakeholders should rapidly mobilize now to respond to high food assistance needs through early 2025.

Prolonged dry spells, high temperatures, and economic challenges have left approximately 293,000 people in rural Lesotho (19 percent of the population) facing severe food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse, from May to September 2024. Immediate interventions are crucial to address food gaps, protect livelihoods, and prevent acute malnutrition.

The most affected districts include Maseru and Qacha’s Nek, where 30 percent of the population is in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), followed by Mohale’s Hoek and Quthing at 25 percent. The situation is expected to worsen, with around 403,000 people (27 percent of the rural population) projected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from October 2024 to March 2025, driven by ongoing price hikes and the potential impact of La Niña, while food availability remains stable but increasingly unaffordable for poorer households.