Early Warning Systems Hub Alerts

New field assessment data collected in June and July affirm prior warnings of the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in Luakpiny/Nasir (Nasir) and Ulang counties in Upper Nile State, South Sudan, as issued by the IPC and FEWS NET in June. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes are already ongoing in Nasir and Ulang, and extremely high levels of hunger, malnutrition, and mortality will likely persist until at least the end of the lean season in October, when the rainy season ends and the harvest begins. Global acute malnutrition rates (GAM) among children under five have reached 25.4 and 23.4 percent, respectively, based on mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurements collected in areas accessible to humanitarians. 23 and 11 percent of households, respectively, are experiencing extreme hunger indicative of a ≥50 percent food consumption deficit based on Household Hunger Score (HHS). Conflict between national army and local militia forces, a severe cholera outbreak, and starvation have also resulted in household reports of atypically high mortality, though trauma deaths remain the highest driver. These data suggest the food consumption and acute malnutrition thresholds for Famine (IPC Phase 5) may have been passed in Nasir; however, non-trauma mortality remains relatively low. Conditions in inaccessible areas are largely unknown, but it is likely that the severity of acute food insecurity is similar to or worse than that observed in accessible areas.

Between June and September 2025, 193,000 people (16 percent of the population) in Eswatini are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity and loss of livelihood, classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). Although food security has improved significantly compared to the same period last year, the situation is expected to deteriorate during the projection period (October 2025 to March 2026). An estimated 259,000 people (21 percent of the population) are likely to face Crisis or worse conditions, representing an increase of 66,000 people compared to the current period. The Lowveld Cattle and Maize (LCM) zone continues to experience the worst food security conditions, with over 72,000 people in Phase 3 or above, followed by the Dry Middleveld (DMV) and the Lubombo Plateau (LP) with nearly 30,000 people and more than 9,400 people in Phase 3 or above respectively. These numbers demonstrate persistently high food insecurity levels.

More than 228,400 children aged 6 to 59 months are suffering or expected to suffer acute malnutrition between March 2025 and February 2026, including 61,500 children suffering severe acute malnutrition (SAM). This marks a 30 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. In the current period (March to August 2025), the sub-prefectures of Bamingui, Ndélé, Amdafoc, Birao, and Ouandja-Djallé are classified in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical), while the remaining 71 analysed sub-prefectures are in IPC AMN Phase 2 (Alert).

Bangladesh's first IPC Acute Malnutrition (AMN) analysis finds that approximately 1.6 million children aged 6 to 59 months are suffering or expected to suffer acute malnutrition between January and December 2025, including 143,850 children facing Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM). Around 117,000 pregnant or breastfeeding women (PBW) are suffering or expected to suffer acute malnutrition in the same period. The districts most affected are Bhola, Cox’s Bazar, Bagerhat, Sirajganj, Gaibandha, Kurigram and Bhashanchar where food insecurity is more prevalent.

Approximately 2.2 million people—or one in three people—are facing high levels of acute food insecurity between April and August 2025, including 481,000 people facing critical levels of acute food insecurity, IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), and 1.74 million people experiencing crisis levels of acute food insecurity, classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). The situation is driven by conflict and insecurity, poor agricultural production and economic shocks. Armed violence and civil unrest continue to displace populations—over 443,000 people are currently displaced—and limit access to farmland, especially in the southeast, northeast, and northwest.

Approximately 357,900 children aged 6 and 59 months are suffering or expected
to suffer acute malnutrition between September 2024 and August 2025, with
almost 51 percent (182,700) of cases expected in the Grand Sud-Est and 49
percent (175,200) in the Grand Sud. Of that total, 83,400 children are likely to
suffer Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) and 274,500 are likely to suffer Moderate
Acute Malnutrition (MAM). The highest caseload of children suffering SAM is in
the Grand Sud-Est region (60 percent), compared to 40 percent in the Grand Sud.
In the first projection period (January – April 2025), the most affected districts in IPC
AMN Phase 3 or above (Critical or worse) will be Nosy Varika, Ifanadiana, Mananjary,
Ikongo, Manakara, Vondrozo, Farafangana and Befotaka for the Grand Sud-Est, and
Amboasary for the Grand Sud.
The nutrition situation is projected to improve slightly in the second projection period
(May – August 2025). Only two districts will remain in Phase 3, namely Farafangana
and Amboasary, while three districts will be in IPC AMN Phase 1 (Acceptable): Toliara
II, Taolagnaro and Vohipeno. The other districts will remain in IPC AMN Phase 2 (Alert).
While there has been a slight improvement in the nutritional situation compared with
previous years in the Grand Sud and Grand Sud-Est, the population’s diet remains
insufficient, both in quality and quantity, and dietary practices remain inadequate.
Reduced access to latrines and insufficient hygiene practices as well as reduced access
to health services are also contributing factors to the acute malnutrition situation.
Access to drinking water and sanitation services also remains a major problem with
open defecation a widespread practice. Childhood illnesses are another contributing
factor, with diarrhea and Acute Respiratory Infections (AFI) highly prevalent in both
regions. Low vaccination coverage also exposes children to infectious diseases
that compromise their nutritional status. Vaccination coverage varies between 28
and 76 percent in Grand Sud, and between 32 and 77 percent in Grand Sud-Est.

Between September 2024 and March 2025, approximately 2 million people (31 percent of the analysed population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity - classified as IPC Phase 3 or above. Nearly 1.7 million people are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and 307,000 are facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

The populations most affected include those who experienced low yields from agricultural production and have already depleted their food reserves. This group includes casual labourers, displaced households, and poor urban families reliant on the market for their food needs. While these individuals are dispersed throughout the country, their presence is comparatively higher in the prefectures of Basse-Kotto, Lim Pendé, Mambéré, Mbomou, Nana-Mambéré, Ouaka, and Ouham-Pendé.

Despite some seasonal improvement compared to the previous update in April 2024—when 2.5 million people (41 percent of the population) were classified in Phase 3 or above —the situation remains concerning due to several factors. These include economic access challenges for certain households, a lack of food reserves, disruptions in internal and cross-border supply chains due to armed violence, flooding impacts, irregular rainfall affecting agriculture (the primary livelihood in most areas), and population displacement.

The situation is expected to deteriorate between April and August 2025 if necessary measures are not implemented. About 2.25 million people (35 percent of the analysed population) will likely experience Crisis (Phase 3) and Emergency (Phase 4) levels of acute food insecurity. During this period, it is estimated that around 1.82 million people will be in Phase 3 and approximately 431,000 people will be in Phase 4.

Nearly 5.4 million children aged 0-59 months in northwest and northeast Nigeria are suffering from acute malnutrition and will likely continue suffering through 2025. This includes about 1.8 million cases of Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) and 3.6 million cases of Moderate Acute Malnutrition (MAM). Additionally, approximately 787,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women are acutely malnourished.

In the current period of May – September 2024, over half of the 133 Local Government Areas (LGAs) assessed were classified as IPC Acute Malnutrition (AMN) Phase 3 (Serious) or Phase 4 (Critical). Specifically, in the northeast, 10 LGAs were in Phase 4 and 21 in Phase 3; in the northwest, there were 24 in Phase 4 and 29 in Phase 3.

Key factors driving this crisis include poor food consumption, inadequate health services, and ongoing food insecurity. The number of acutely malnourished children needing treatment has risen by 23 percent since the last analysis, with SAM cases increasing by 69 percent.

The first projection period from October to December 2024 indicates that acute malnutrition levels in both the northeast and northwest regions are expected to remain largely stable compared to the current period. However, Northern Yobe is likely to see a deterioration in its situation. During the second projection period from January to April 2025, conditions in the northeast are anticipated to remain similar, with the exception of Mobbar and Nganzai in Northern Borno, where a decline is expected.

The severity of acute food insecurity in Gaza has sharply worsened since early October, when Israel began to increasingly restrict humanitarian and commercial food supply flows to the north and commercial food
supply flows to the south. In the worst-affected areas in North Gaza governorate, including Jabaliya, Beit Hanoun, and Beit Lahiya, a siege has caused the near-total blockade of food supply flows since October 1. In the absence of a dramatic increase in food supply flows, Famine (IPC Phase 5) will become the most likely outcome in North Gaza. In the coming weeks, FEWS NET will collaborate with the Integrated Phase classification (IPC) partnership and Famine Review Committee (FRC) on the assessment of Famine (IPC Phase 5). However, government decision-makers should not await this classification, which will only serve to confirm excess hunger related mortality is reaching an extreme threshold for human suffering and
loss of life. FEWS NET urges immediate action to facilitate large-scale, sustained delivery of food and nutrition assistance that saves lives.

This FRC alert is issued to express concern about an imminent and substantial likelihood of famine occurring, due to the rapidly deteriorating situation in the Gaza Strip. While an IPC update will be conducted, this Alert serves to draw immediate attention on the need to take urgent action to alleviate this humanitarian catastrophe in areas of the northern Gaza Strip.