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The IPC analysis in Sudan was a complex exercise, given the sheer size of the country and the analytical challenges posed by the ongoing conflict. While IPC findings for February–May 2026 (post-harvest season) cover the entire country (195 localities and IDP settlements), findings for June–September 2026 (lean season) and October 2026-January 2027 (harvest season) cover a significantly smaller area—56 localities and IDP settlements, representing around 8.3 million people and a large share of the most food‑insecure populations.
Data was not available for a full nationwide projection analysis. Caution is therefore advised when comparing figures across periods, as geographic coverage differs significantly.
Nearly 19.5 million people—approximately 41 percent of the country’s population—continue to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between February and May 2026. This includes nearly 135,000 people in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe), more than 5 million people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), and a further 14 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Conditions are expected to deteriorate further in the upcoming June–September lean season.

Six million people in Somalia—31 percent of the analysed population—are facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between April and June 2026, including 1.9 million in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). This marks an increase of more than half a million people compared to the initial projection for this time period. 
The updated analysis of the  April–June 2026 projection period shows that both food security and nutrition outcomes are worse than initially predicted.  The deterioration is driven by poor Gu rainfall, sharp food price spikes linked to the 2026 Middle East conflict, currency depreciation and conflict-related displacement.
A rapid and sustained scale‑up of multisectoral assistance—particularly in hotspot areas such as Burhakaba—is urgently needed to prevent further deterioration and loss of life. 

The IPC conducted a projection update analysis for the period of January to June 2026, focused on the provinces of North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri and Tanganyika. More than 9.9 million people in these four areas will continue to experience high levels of acute food insecurity in this period. Although this represents a slight improvement of 1.8 percent compared with the September 2025 projection for the same period, the situation still reflects a deterioration from the current analysis, underscoring the persistent severity of food insecurity in the region.
At the national level, approximately 26.5 million people (23 percent of the analysed population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity between January and June 2026, including more than 3.6 million people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 22.9 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).
Key drivers of the high levels of acute food insecurity include relentless armed conflict, and economic and climatic shocks. The food security situation is further undermined by limited access to essential services and weakened infrastructure, gaps in social protection systems and insufficient coverage of humanitarian assistance.

Global markets faced renewed pressures in April as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continued to disrupt fertilizer supply, pushing urea and phosphate prices higher and further eroding fertilizer affordability. Supply chain disruptions, combined with higher energy and logistics costs, intensified production challenges. Policy responses included export restrictions on key fertilizer inputs, revised trade measures, and adjustments to biofuel mandates. Against this backdrop, crop conditions remained broadly favourable: wheat and maize benefited from generally good weather although rainfall is needed in some parts, rice harvests progressed across Asia and South America, and soybean harvesting in the southern hemisphere advanced. However, rising input costs highlight growing risks for future agricultural production, including shifting area to less input-intensive crops.

The brief synthesizes robust evidence on climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices on adaptive crop management and agroforestry that strengthen household resilience to climate shocks in Burkina Faso and Africa south of the Sahara (SSA). The findings highlight a set of proven practices, including agroforestry, farmer-managed natural regeneration (FMNR), improved seeds, integrated soil fertility management (ISFM), and composting. These practices deliver consistent benefits in terms of yield gains, improved soil fertility, enhanced water retention, diversified incomes, and stronger food security under climate stress.

The food security situation in Lebanon has worsened following the drastic escalation in hostilities and widespread displacement that began in early March 2026. Around 1.24 million people are facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between April and August 2026, which is worse than was previously projected for this period in the IPC analysis released in October 2025. The declining food security conditions are experienced among all population groups and reverses any improvements observed in the previous reporting period. The biggest increases in populations in Phase 3 or above are found in the southern governorates, particularly in Bent Jbeil, Marjaayoun, El Nabatieh and Sour districts, among both Lebanese and Syrian refugee populations. In these areas, high levels of acute food insecurity are affecting 55 to 65 percent of the population, including approximately 10 percent of people who are in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).

Between April and July 2026, an estimated 7.8 million people in South Sudan are facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC AFI Phase 3 or above). This represents an increase of approximately 280,000 people compared to the September 2025 IPC analysis. Around 73,000 people are classified in IPC AFI Phase 5 (Catastrophe) and are experiencing extreme food consumption gaps associated with starvation, heightened risk of death, and the collapse of livelihoods. A further 2.5 million people are in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency), facing large food gaps and very high levels of acute malnutrition, while approximately 5.3 million people in IPC AFI Phase 3 (Crisis) are unable to meet essential food needs without resorting to unsustainable coping strategies.

Prolonged dry spells, flooding, persistently high staple food prices, declining household purchasing power, and limited income opportunities are driving around 10 percent of the analysed population in rural districts of mainland Tanzania into high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). The impact is particularly severe among households that depend on agricultural labour, livestock, and crop production. During the current analysis period (February–May 2026), which coincides with the peak lean season in single‑season (unimodal) agricultural districts, approximately 1 million people are experiencing IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) conditions, unable to meet their essential food requirements and resorting to unsustainable coping measures.
This IPC analysis for mainland Tanzania covers 30 vulnerable rural districts across 11 regions, including 20 districts with bimodal agricultural seasons and 10 districts with a unimodal season. Together, these districts are home to approximately 10 million people, representing around 15 percent of the national population. These areas are repeatedly affected by shocks—such as climatic variability and market instability—that consistently undermine food security and erode household purchasing power.

The Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) 2026 reveals that acute food insecurity and malnutrition remain at alarmingly high and deeply entrenched levels, with crises increasingly concentrated in a core group of countries. In its tenth edition, the report shows that acute hunger has doubled over the past decade, with two famines declared last year for the first time in its history. As a flagship publication of the Global Network Against Food Crises (GNAFC), the GRFC serves as the key reference for understanding acute food insecurity at global, regional and country levels. Produced through a collaborative effort among 18 partners, it provides a consensus-based assessment of acute food insecurity and malnutrition in countries affected by food crises, with the aim of informing and guiding both humanitarian and development responses.

Accurate measurement of the depth of acute food insecurity remains a major gap in current global monitoring systems. While the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) identifies the scale and geographic distribution of populations in crisis, it does not quantify the magnitude of food intake shortfalls faced by affected populations. This paper outlines an exploratory data exercise that tests three proxy approaches to estimating food gaps using available IPC and DIEM data. First, we derive back-of-envelope caloric deficit estimates by IPC phase using thresholds from the Household Economy Approach. Second, we assess whether widely used dietary diversity, experiential food insecurity, and coping capacity indicators can serve as proxies for calorie deficits by analyzing their cross-indicator correlations. Third, using microdata from FAO's DIEM surveys matched to IPC area phases, we estimate indicator-specific shortfalls using a Foster-Greer-Thorbecke gap framework and translate these into food assistance estimates. The results show that proxy indicators cannot be used interchangeably to estimate caloric shortfalls, reflecting weak cross-indicator correlations consistent with the existing literature. Within-phase heterogeneity is wide and data limitations are substantial. The paper documents these approaches and their limitations as an intermediate step. The paper provides several recommendations for improving data collection that would allow for more reliable food gap estimates using the framework presented in this paper, which in turn could then operationalized for humanitarian agencies to ‘right size’ and better target food assistance to populations facing acute food insecurity.