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An estimated 1.9 million people in Malawi (10 percent of the analysed population) are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of acute food insecurity between April and September 2026, marking a notable improvement compared with the previous two years. This progress reflects a favourable 2025/26 agricultural season following the severe El Niño impacts of 2024/25.
Despite improved production, household purchasing power continues to be eroded by high food prices, elevated inflation, sharp fuel price adjustments, foreign-exchange shortages, and high premiums on the parallel exchange market—particularly affecting poor households in urban areas and low-income rural households.

Between April and June 2026, an estimated 2.5 million people (14 percent of the population) faced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). Of these, more than 2.3 million people were classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 120,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). Although this represents an improvement compared with the same period in 2025, depleted food stocks and high food prices continue to limit food access for many households.

Between April and May 2026, around 1.77 million people in Burundi (14 percent of the analysed population) faced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), including roughly 1.5 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 220,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). The Imbo Plain and the Northern Depressions were the worst-affected zones, each with about 20 percent of their population in Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse)

More than 234,000 people living in rural areas of Lesotho (15 percent of the analysed population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above, Crisis or worse) between May and September 2026. The acute food insecurity situation is driven mainly by climatic shocks, high food prices,and livestock disease.
During the projected period (October 2026 to March 2027), approximately 311,000 people in rural Lesotho (20 percent of the analysed population) are projected to face Phase 3 or above.

Between June and September 2026, an estimated 222,000 people (18 percent of the population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above, Crisis or worse). This marks a 2‑percentage‑point increase compared with the same period last year, rising from 16 percent (193,000 people) to 18 percent (222,000 people). The deterioration is driven mainly by irregular rainfall, persistently high food prices, reduced household incomes, and livestock disease.

After two years of conflict, the October 2025 ceasefire has led to measurable gains in humanitarian access and overall conditions across the Gaza Strip. However, the situation remains deeply fragile, with civilians continuing to endure harsh conditions.
The entire Gaza Strip is classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis), with 1.4 million people expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity through December 2026, up from 1.2 million in the mid-April–June period

More than 256,000 people (25 percent of the population) are experiencing IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between July and December 2026, including around 30,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). This is a significant increase from the previous period (May – June 2026), when approximately 166,000 people (16 percent of the analysed population) faced Phase 3 or above and 17,000 people (2 percent) faced Phase 4. Price shocks linked to import dependence, low purchasing power, and the effects of strong El Niño conditions are driving the increase.

Acute food insecurity remains concerning in Madagascar—concentrated in the southern and eastern regions. Around 2.12 million people (7 percent of the analysed population) are classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between June and September 2026, including over 183,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 1.94 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). This is an overall decrease from 2.57 million people who faced Phase 3 or above between March and May 2026, as a result of partial post‑harvest improvements. The situation in the Grand South, however, is much worse than the previous period as the population experiencing Phase 4 rose sharply, from 25,000 people between March and May 2026 to 183,000 people in the June–September 2026 first projection period.

Agricultural markets are moving through a generally steady period, supported by favourable conditions across AMIS crops. Seasonal progress has been broadly encouraging, although pockets of dryness and the emergence of El Niño are beginning to shape expectations. Policy developments continue influencing market dynamics, with adjustments to trade measures and domestic support. Fertilizer markets have shown signs of easing, as improved flows through the Strait of Hormuz and softer energy prices have reduced supply pressures. While fertilizer affordability improved in some regions, it remains a constraint in others. Against this backdrop, staple food commodity prices show mixed movements, with harvest pressure in the northern hemisphere and ample supply prospects balancing localized tightness, leaving sentiment cautious but broadly stable.

From April to June 2026, an estimated 113,000 people (16 percent of the analysed population) in the Tri-National Border Region of the Río Lempa—which lies within the Central American Dry Corridor—are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). Of these, approximately 8,000 people are facing in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions, requiring urgent response actions. The situation is primarily driven by climatic variability, depleted food stocks and elevated food prices. The Ch’orti’ micro-region presents the most severe situation, with about 80,000 people (25 percent of its population) experiencing Crisis or worse (Phase 3 or above) conditions. Although the proportion remains stable compared with the previous year (16 percent), the total number of people affected is higher, partly due to the larger population analysed in 2026 (701,000 compared to 605,000 people).