How LAC Can Protect Its Agricultural Potential Amidst a Changing Climate

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) stands as a vital supplier to the global food system, yet its agricultural sector faces intensified disruptions from rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns. In their book chapter on “Adapting to a Changing Climate: Strategies for Productive and Resilient Agrifood Systems” the authors looked at how factors like yield shocks, water constraints, and heat stress introduce new push-and-pull forces that alter crop viability and regional advantages. They utilized the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model to explore how climate dynamics will affect yields, land use, and production across the region through 2050. The IMPACT model integrates climate, hydrology, and crop modules, relying on OECD projections for GDP and population and on expert-based assumptions of yield growth trajectories. The study’s findings emphasize that future outcomes depend on today's strategic and policy decisions regarding innovation, infrastructure, and adaptation strategies.

Findings

While LAC has achieved a fourfold increase in productivity since the 1970s, future growth is expected to occur at a slower rate due to climate variability. Projections for 2050 indicate that yields for all seven major crops analyzed will decrease across LAC, with regional losses exceeding global averages. Coffee and soybeans are projected to experience yield losses of over 10%, while maize yields are expected to fall by 9.6%.

Subregional dynamics reveal that while Central America and the Southern Cone face declining yields for all analyzed crops, the Andean region and the Caribbean may see slight increases for specific commodities like beans or soybeans. Despite these challenges, harvested areas for soybeans, maize, and sugarcane are predicted to increase moderately, though this expansion is generally insufficient to offset production losses.

The analysis identifies three critical lessons: first, without intervention, yields for nearly all crops will decrease across LAC subregions. Second, increasing harvested area will not successfully counterbalance production declines caused by lower yields. Finally, at the subregional level, yield improvements rather than area expansion will be the primary driver of higher production levels.

Navigating the policy landscape

The transition toward productive and climate resilient agrifood systems requires the proactive design of adaptive strategies to mitigate socioeconomic disparities. Policymakers must adopt a long-term view to develop programs that help vulnerable value chain actors, such as those in maize and coffee in Central America or rice in the Andean Region, adapt to changing agroecological conditions. These efforts should include investments in resource-efficient economic activities, social protection programs, and reskilling initiatives for those facing high barriers to transitioning to new activities.

Furthermore, the region must prioritize yield-enhancing interventions as the primary lever for increasing production. Targeted investments in climate-smart technologies, sustainable infrastructure, and inclusive support systems are essential to protect markets and maintain agricultural potential in the face of climate impacts. Success depends on building an enabling environment with strong institutions and inclusive policies that ensure equitable access to resources for all producers, especially smallholders. Strengthening regional integration and collaboration will also be vital for building cost-effective resilience, allowing countries to share knowledge and align strategies across national borders.

Rajalakshmi Nirmal is the Global Communications Lead of CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations and works at the International Food Policy Research Institute.