Market-related

Russia’s July 17 withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), has sparked fears of reduced exports of wheat and other key commodities to developing countries, along with other market disruptions.

On July 20, India announced that it would restrict exports of non-basmati rice to calm domestic rice prices that had risen more than 30% since October 2022 (Figure 1). The ban would halt overseas sales of the grain with “immediate effect,” the government announced, and is estimated to cover about 75%-80% of Indian rice exports.

With the world already reeling from the high food prices and other economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the outbreak of conflict in Ukraine in February 2022 again raised the specter of a major global food security crisis. Since that time, analysis of the extant and potential future impacts of the conflict on food and fuel prices, trade, food security, and poverty has been a primary focus for policymakers, researchers, and development professionals around the world.

On July 17, Russia announced that it was terminating participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which allowed exports of grains and other agricultural products from Ukrainian ports.

Protectionist policies such as export restrictions are often used as an immediate response to spiking food prices and other food shocks, such as those posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. These policies are increasingly being recognized as detrimental to long-term global food security and can also have impacts for local food security, particularly for low-income and net food importing countries. However, a lack of real-time data makes it difficult for policymakers to see how these responses are truly impacting food markets within their countries.