Trade

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to the disruption, by sanctions or war, of two of the world’s largest grain exporters. This means 2022 is shaping up to be a very difficult year for the global food system.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has imperiled global food security—creating suffering within Ukraine and displacing millions, while disrupting agricultural production and trade from one of the world's major exporting regions. The latter threatens to drive rising food prices still higher and create scarcity, especially for regions most dependent on exports from Russia and Ukraine—particularly the Middle East and North Africa.

As global food prices continue to rise and concerns grow over potential supply disruptions in the Black Sea region, policymakers and development practitioners are beginning to analyze the implications for global food markets and the potential for food crises. On March 5, 2022, the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) called an extraordinary meeting of the AMIS Rapid Response Forum.

The FAO Food Price Index hit a record high in February, exceeding the previous record of February 2011. The index rose 3.9 percent from January and 20.7 percent from February 2021. Vegetable oil, dairy, cereal, and meat price increases all contributed to the continued surge.

The escalating tensions in the Black Sea region heaped fresh risks on global food markets already struggling with soaring prices, supply-chain disruptions, and a bumpy recovery from the pandemic. Before the Ukraine crisis, overall conditions in markets for staple foods looked reasonably favourable and seemed to augur for softening prices during 2022, even as sharply rising food prices in domestic markets in many developing countries continue to raise concerns about greater food insecurity. The escalation of the conflict is now putting markets into serious turmoil.