Market-related

The escalating tensions in the Black Sea region heaped fresh risks on global food markets already struggling with soaring prices, supply-chain disruptions, and a bumpy recovery from the pandemic. Before the Ukraine crisis, overall conditions in markets for staple foods looked reasonably favourable and seemed to augur for softening prices during 2022, even as sharply rising food prices in domestic markets in many developing countries continue to raise concerns about greater food insecurity. The escalation of the conflict is now putting markets into serious turmoil.

The unfolding crisis in Ukraine has roiled commodity markets and threatens global food security. Ongoing fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors have already driven up food prices. Poor harvests in South America, strong global demand, and supply chain issues have reduced grain and oilseed inventories and driven prices to their highest levels since 2011-2013.

The FAO Food Price Index continued to rise in November, up 1.2 percent from the previous month and 27.3 percent from November 2020. This increase, driven mostly by rising cereal and dairy prices, brought the Index to its highest level since June 2011.

In 2018, African swine fever (ASF), a deadly hemorrhagic disease found in pigs, was reported for the first time in China. By mid-2019, the disease had infected hundreds of millions of pigs—anywhere from 30 to 70 percent of the country’s swine population. Millions of pigs were culled in an effort to slow the spread of the disease, resulting in a drastic reduction in the volume of Chinese pork produced.

Alarming levels of hunger and food insecurity are on the rise across the globe. According to the September 2021 mid-year update to the 2021 Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC), an estimated 161 million people in 42 countries/territories have faced Crisis-level (IPC/CH Phase 3) food insecurity or higher. This number is up from the estimated 155 million acutely food-insecure people reported by the GRFC for 2020.