Agricultural Production

Key takeaways

•Shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz have already driven sharp increases in fertilizer and energy prices.
•Higher prices could reduce fertilizer use and lower crop yields if the disruption persists, posing significant food security risks.
•Most vulnerable are countries heavily dependent on Persian Gulf fertilizer and natural gas—especially in Africa and South Asia.

Currently, 80% of the world’s people rely on just three agricultural commodities as primary food staples: Maize, rice, and wheat. Production of these staple foods is concentrated in a small number of countries and regions, often called “breadbaskets.” At the same time, the incidence of climate-driven droughts, storms, floods, and related shocks is on the rise, creating large-scale threats to agricultural production in these areas. Recent research suggests that climate change will increase both the volatility of agricultural output and correlations across regions.

The humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip has reached catastrophic levels since the brief ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war ended March 18. Famine thresholds have been surpassed in many parts of the territory, according to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis. Increasing numbers of hunger-related deaths among children under 5 are being reported, and nearly the entire population of 2.2 million people now faces high levels of acute food insecurity.

Fertilizer use plays an important role in increasing agricultural production and ensuring food availability and economic accessibility: two critical components of overall food security. When global fertilizer prices skyrocketed in 2021-2022, those spikes brought with them concerns about drastically reduced fertilizer application and subsequent negative impacts on food production, prices, and food security.

The global food system is uniquely vulnerable to climate impacts, making adaptation of paramount importance. While contributing roughly one-third of total anthropogenic emissions, food systems around the world fortunately also hold immense potential for mitigation through improved practices and land use. A new article published today in Science emphasizes the critical role of agrifood value chains (AVCs) in supporting both adaptation and mitigation at the farm level.