What's New

Russia’s October 29 announcement that it was suspending its participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative—which allows shipments out of Ukrainian ports—was not a surprise; Russia had been skeptical of the deal since the start. But now the supply disruptions will begin again: the move will have a negative impact on Ukraine, its customers, on world market prices—and global food security, particularly for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

It seems that joint food and energy crises have become the norm: Three have now occurred in just the last 15 years, driven by climate change and other human-made crises such as COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Even as the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic dissipate, the world continues to face a severe food security crisis, exacerbated by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, putting it further off track to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 2—ending hunger and malnutrition in all its forms by 2030.

The latest FAO Food Price Index reports that global food prices fell by 1.5 percent in September. However, the Index remains 5.5 higher than its September 2021 level. The decline from August was driven by significant drops in vegetable oil prices and more moderate drops in sugar, meat, and dairy products; cereal prices rose in September.

After the sharp rise in international prices of wheat and other staple foods in the wake of Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine, since May prices have fallen back to pre-war levels. Has the global food price crisis now come to an end? Unfortunately, such a conclusion is premature. Domestic food prices for consumers continue to rise in most countries. Meanwhile, ongoing uncertainties—not the least of which is the continuing war—augur for continued turmoil in global food markets.