Blog Category

Agricultural Production

The Iran war: Farmers in Brazil and Argentina face rising fertilizer and energy prices

• by Joseph Glauber, Valeria Piñeiro, and Juan Pablo Gianatiempo

Key takeawaysRising global fertilizer and energy prices are straining farmers in Argentina and Brazil even as global food supplies remain relatively ample.Heavy dependence on imported fertilizers makes both countries especially vulnerable to disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz.Lower margins and uncertain weather could push producers toward reduced fertilizer use or less input‑intensive crops, with risks for future supply.Fertilizer and energy prices have spiked due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, putting pressure on agricultural producers and sparking fears of a potential ris

How the Iran crisis affects fertilizer-dependent countries: The case of Mexico

• by Valeria Piñeiro, Juan Pablo Gianatiempo, Jorge Amado Rueda, and Joseph Glauber

Key takeaways •Reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is squeezing farmers. Energy and fertilizer prices are climbing faster than food prices, eroding producer profitability.•Mexico is highly exposed to fertilizer import shocks. Heavy reliance on imported nitrogen and potash makes the sector vulnerable to external disruptions like the Iran crisis.•High-value and staple crops face different pressures.

The Iran war’s impacts on global fertilizer markets and food production

• by Charlotte Hebebrand, Joseph Glauber, Rob Vos, and Brendan Rice

Key takeaways

•Shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz have already driven sharp increases in fertilizer and energy prices.
•Higher prices could reduce fertilizer use and lower crop yields if the disruption persists, posing significant food security risks.
•Most vulnerable are countries heavily dependent on Persian Gulf fertilizer and natural gas—especially in Africa and South Asia.

Will extreme weather lead to multiple breadbasket failures and threaten global food security?

• by Will Martin, Reza Nia, and Rob Vos

Currently, 80% of the world’s people rely on just three agricultural commodities as primary food staples: Maize, rice, and wheat. Production of these staple foods is concentrated in a small number of countries and regions, often called “breadbaskets.” At the same time, the incidence of climate-driven droughts, storms, floods, and related shocks is on the rise, creating large-scale threats to agricultural production in these areas. Recent research suggests that climate change will increase both the volatility of agricultural output and correlations across regions.

Gaza’s catastrophe will have long-lasting impacts on lives and livelihoods

• by Rob Vos and Soonho Kim

The humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip has reached catastrophic levels since the brief ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war ended March 18. Famine thresholds have been surpassed in many parts of the territory, according to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis. Increasing numbers of hunger-related deaths among children under 5 are being reported, and nearly the entire population of 2.2 million people now faces high levels of acute food insecurity.